Reflection

[Web 3.0 Investment Series] Another gale of creative destruction

Web3 economy replaces the old and the new Creative destruction is an inevitable process. Web1 made browsing data available to the average person. Web2 turned interaction of people, transactions, and contents into businesses (social media, e-commerce, video streaming). Web3 adds the internet of money and the internet of identity. The economy, old and new today,. Read More

The perfect cocktail for commodities

    Some context:  Lumber price went up 244.5% from USD 435.5/mbf January 1st 2020 to all-time-high of USD 1500/mbf in April 2021.     If we merely rely on periodicity measures, a commodity supercycle is supposed to happen only once in several decades. As the latest supercycle only ended about seven years ago in. Read More

With Inflation brewing, value stocks might outperform growth stocks

For the last fifteen years, value stocks have been underperforming growth stocks. As such, many investors think that either value investing is dead or reversion to the mean is imminent. With the brewing inflation as the catalyst, we are of the view that second scenario is more likely. We are of the view that the. Read More

Inflation, be careful with what you wish for

      “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.” -Vladimir Lenin-     Yesterday, the market was surprised with higher-than-expected US’ April CPI inflation data of 4.2% YoY and 0.9% MoM, hitting 13-year high. This is far higher than the consensus of 3.6% YoY and 0.3% MoM. Moreover,. Read More

Groupwork not groupthink

Most of the world greatest investors such as Phillip Fisher, Warren Buffett, and Peter Lynch have stressed the importance of thinking independently and recommended investors to take a solitude path of their own. For example, Peter Lynch, ex-fund manager of Magellan Fund, once said “If no great book or symphony was ever written by committee,. Read More

Improve your investment outcomes by adopting a growth mindset

We are what we believe we are After decades of research, Stanford University psychologist, Carol Dweck discovered a simple but ground-breaking idea: the power of mindset. In her classic book “Mindset: The New Psychology of Success”, she showed how success can be dramatically influenced by how we think about our talents and abilities. Dweck summarised,. Read More

Blockchain and edge computing are bound to reverse the tech-driven centralisation trend

Tech entrepreneurship has led to a winner-takes-it-all game, centralising wealth and power The digitalisation of the 3Cs: Communication, Content, and Commerce has been the dominating force shaping the new ecosystem (new economy) for the last two decades and has also led to a concentration of power and wealth. This centralisation trend has led to an. Read More

What nature tells us about investing in a turbulent environment

As we find ourselves at a critical juncture, where economic and political systems can be overturned, we turned to nature  for inspiration and learned what “species” of investors are most likely to thrive in this rapidly changing environment. Lessons from nature From: Essentials of Ecology, 5e, G. Tyler Millers and Scott E. Spoolman. (Brooks/Cole) Scientists. Read More

How to be a Superforecaster

What makes a better forecaster of future events? Well, if somebody can answer that question, it is Professor Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania. Tetlock co-created The Good Judgement Project (GJP) which participated in a forecasting tournament held by IARPA, a U.S. government organisation. IARPA supports research that has the potential to revolutionise intelligence. Read More

How Factfullness can help investors make better decisions

Most of us are surprisingly wrong about the world. We must have a correct world view in order to make a judgment about where the world is headed. Unfortunately, this is where most of us already go wrong. We are wrong! This, we found out while reading the eye-opening book Factfullness, in which author Hans. Read More

About Reflection

Investment is a journey. Every now and then a milestone may be reached or a mistake made. We look back at our previous assumptions and look forward for new opportunities and risks. We reflect on what we have learned, how we have performed, what questions we have asked, and most importantly, what decisions we have made. Reflection discusses in detail these topics on an infrequent but regular basis.