The end of the decade of plenty?

“Then the seven years of plenty which were in the land of Egypt ended, and the seven years of famine began to come, as Joseph had said. The famine was in all lands, but in all the land of Egypt there was bread.” Genesis 41: 53-54 Biagio d’Antonio’s The Story of Joseph (c.1485) The disturbing. Read More

Rising fertiliser and food prices raise concern over food security, who will be spared?

Everyone has a plan ‘till they get punched in the mouth. This frequently cited quote by Mike Tyson gains more relevance today. Politicians may aspire with plans to increase their odds of being elected. Greening economy projects, waging war against inequality, exerting political dominance over other countries, and other populist policies are some of the. Read More

How the hot manure market could tell us about the world

Who would’ve thought that someone is willing to pay a hefty price for turds? Although some might find this to be stomach-churning, it is a reality. According to Bloomberg, manure is selling for USD 40 to 70 per ton, an all-time high level since 2012. Major reasoning behind this phenomenon could be traced from the. Read More

The tale of two restaurants: The lurking threat of easy treats

While having a getaway from a tumultuous year of a volatile market, one of our team members decided to share his bitter and sweet experience while enjoying delicacies in two different restaurants. The story reminds us of maintaining an underdog spirit to avoid being complacent and getting spoiled. The story in his own words is. Read More

The new year resolutions

Resolutions are firm decisions to do or not to do something. While such determinations can be reached anytime, it is a common practice to say out loud in the beginning of each year what those things may be, followed by a reflection at the end of the year on how much have been accomplished during. Read More

How blockchain can impact the inflation outlook

In our quarterly report of Q2 2020, we wrote about our thoughts on the inflation outlook. More than a year has gone by, with the global pandemic situation and subsequent responses from central banks, it seems that our thesis has become more mainstream. In fact, a survey by the Fed suggests an increasing fear that. Read More

The nascent stage of Southeast Asia tech investment era

On the previous blog (link), we mentioned that some discouraged investors from China tech stocks might shift their portfolio allocation into Southeast Asia tech names who have similar high-growth profile yet lesser regulatory risk. Below is our reflection on the Southeast Asia tech investment opportunity: The Southeast Asian market has been unloved due to post-commodity. Read More

The lurking opportunity from China’s clampdown on tech companies

The Chinese word for Crisis (危机, read: Wéi Jī) is the combination of the words “Danger” (危险, read: Wéi Xiǎn) and “Opportunity” (机会,read: Jī Huì) philosophically suggesting that there is always opportunity in every crisis.   The clampdown by the Chinese government and stricter compliance requirements by the US SEC has created a perfect storm for. Read More

The perfect cocktail for commodities

    Some context:  Lumber price went up 244.5% from USD 435.5/mbf January 1st 2020 to all-time-high of USD 1500/mbf in April 2021.     If we merely rely on periodicity measures, a commodity supercycle is supposed to happen only once in several decades. As the latest supercycle only ended about seven years ago in. Read More

With Inflation brewing, value stocks might outperform growth stocks

For the last fifteen years, value stocks have been underperforming growth stocks. As such, many investors think that either value investing is dead or reversion to the mean is imminent. With the brewing inflation as the catalyst, we are of the view that second scenario is more likely. We are of the view that the. Read More

About Reflection

Investment is a journey. Every now and then a milestone may be reached or a mistake made. We look back at our previous assumptions and look forward for new opportunities and risks. We reflect on what we have learned, how we have performed, what questions we have asked, and most importantly, what decisions we have made. Reflection discusses in detail these topics on an infrequent but regular basis.