Author: admin heyokha

Remember when we said AI will eat software?
Turns out, we underestimated its appetite.
Because next on the menu is AI itself — and who’s doing the eating? Philosophy.

Check out our previous blog: AI Just Ate your CRM on our website

A 2,400-Year-Old Blueprint

Long before we worried about chatbots hallucinating your medical bill, Aristotle laid down a neat framework for life: SMLSR.

• Substance — it exists on its own.
• Material — made of physical stuff.
• Living — grows, reproduces.
• Sentient — feels and perceives.
• Rational — thinks about thinking.

 

A rock? Just Substance + Material.

A plant? Add Living.

A cat? Add Sentient.

A human? The full stack: Substance, Material, Living, Sentient, Rational.

Aristotle called rationality the soul’s unique gift — our edge over every other beast.

Today? We’ve built machines that can fake Sentience frighteningly well. But true Rationality? That still sits squarely in the human corner.

Viral post asking Chat GPT to simulate being human for a day. Surprisingly well-written and touching. Sentience checks out.

The Big Myth: More Compute Solves Everything

Most companies still treat AI as an engineering puzzle:
More data. Bigger models. Faster chips.

But that’s like pouring rocket fuel into a car with no steering wheel. You don’t just get there faster — you crash harder.

Here’s the truth: All AI is biased.
Bias isn’t a glitch — it’s a choice. It’s in the data we feed it, the trade-offs we hard-code, the outcomes we reward.

As code increasingly governs what we see, buy, believe, and trust, the values embedded in that code shape everything.

What gets rewarded.
What gets suppressed.
Who profits. Who’s left behind.

This isn’t an IT problem — it’s a philosophical one.

Patterns Are Not Purpose

AI today is brilliant at one thing: spotting patterns.
It predicts the next word, the next pixel, the next move — with staggering accuracy.

But should it?
What patterns matter? Which truths do we protect? When does convenience trump accuracy, or vice versa?

These aren’t engineering questions. They’re moral ones.

MIT’s Michael Schrage and David Kiron say this shift is a battle between bounded rationality and bounded patterns. Generative AI doesn’t deduce like a philosopher — it imitates. When conflicting goals collide? It buckles.

Bright minds in MIT have already been researching this topic.

Michael Schrage is a research fellow with the MIT Sloan School of Management’s Initiative on the Digital Economy

David Kiron is the editorial director and researcher of MIT Sloan Management Review and program lead for its Big Ideas research initiatives.

Google Gemini serves as a cautionary tale.

In early 2024 the model began adding forced diversity to historically specific prompts—think Black Vikings or an Asian officer in a WWII German uniform. Two worthy aims, accuracy and inclusion, collided with no hierarchy to resolve the tension. The backlash, apology, and shutdown that followed are what ethicists have dubbed “teleological confusion.”

Patterns only matter when they serve a purpose—and purpose is a philosophical choice.

Some examples of brands we’ve seen here in Indonesia and abroad who nail this mission first thinking:

 

• Sahabat-AI | GoTo & Indosat

The ecosystem that leverages across tech, telco, media, and governmental support

GoTo’s President of On-Demand Services, Catherine Hindra Sutjahyo showcasing the use cases of Sahabat-AI

Indonesia’s GoTo and Indosat teamed up in late 2024 to launch Sahabat-AI — an open-source large language model crafted specifically for Bahasa Indonesia and regional dialects like Javanese, Sundanese, Balinese, and Bataknese.

Its mission is clear: strengthen Indonesia’s digital sovereignty and make advanced AI genuinely useful for everyone, not just the urban tech crowd.

By weaving in local language and cultural cues, Sahabat-AI can power everything from chatbots in e-commerce apps to educational tools in rural schools — all in the words people actually use at home. So when the model faces a choice — generic global answer or locally meaningful response — its purpose keeps it grounded in community relevance and trust.

 

• Spotify | AI DJ (Voice-Request upgrade, May 2025)

Spotify’s AI DJ just got a serious upgrade: it now handles voice requests like “Play underground ’70s disco” or “Give me energizing beats for my afternoon slump.” This is more than a novelty — it lives up to Spotify’s north star to “connect fans and artists” and “soundtrack every moment.”

When deciding between obvious hits and hidden gems, the algorithm resolves the tension by favoring discovery and artist exposure over mindless autoplay loops. Listeners say it feels like having a friend who knows your taste and surprises you — because the AI’s purpose demands more than just maximizing screen time.

Purpose is the quiet super-prompt. When it’s crystal clear, AI knows how to act when objectives collide. Leave it fuzzy and you risk becoming the next Gemini-style headline.

Alignment Starts at Zero: A New Society Needs New Ground Rules

Most firms bolt on “AI alignment” after they ship the model. That’s like teaching ethics to a lion after you’ve set it loose in a daycare.

If AI is this powerful, the real question isn’t can it do X?

It’s should it?

And according to whose values?

We’re not just living in an AI age — we’re living in a world where code quietly does what kings once did: it governs.

But code is invisible. So we have to ask:
Whose rules? Whose benefit? Whose blind spots?

This is why a “Responsible AI” team alone won’t save you. You need explicit commitment to:

✅ Understand the real stakes: AI won’t wait for committees to catch up.
✅ Guide it early: aim it at causes aligned with human flourishing.
✅ Build responsibly: every company owning a model should own its moral assumptions too.

One Callback to Our Last Thesis

In AI Eats Software, we said smart interfaces would wipe out clunky dashboards. But as AI replaces software’s role as the worker, trust becomes the real moat.

Power is shifting from visible tools to invisible thinking. When power shifts — central to distributed — the only anchor left is trust in the values behind the code.

What Leaders Should Really Be Doing

Good AI doesn’t just run tasks — it carries your worldview.

So map it:

• What does your AI know? (Epistemology)
• How does it label the world? (Ontology)
• Why does it do what it does? (Teleology)

Schrage calls this responsibility mapping. We call it good sense in an age of self-writing code.

Final Thought: The Last R Still Belongs to Us

Aristotle gave us a map: from rocks to cats to humans — and that final jump: Rationality.

We’ve taught machines to mimic the living and the sentient. Next up is mimicking Reason. But real Reason isn’t just data. It’s values. Trade-offs. Choosing what matters.

So before you brag about your next trillion-parameter model — check if it has a soul. Or at least a philosophical backbone.

Software ate the world.
AI ate software.
And now?
Philosophy will eat AI.

Better feed it wisely — or risk being dinner yourself.

 

Tara Mulia

Admin heyokha

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Picture this:
You’re at a noisy arcade like Timezone or Funworld in one of Jakarta’s malls lured by the flashing lights, blaring music, and a dose of nostalgia.

You swap a crisp Rp100,000 note for a plastic game card loaded with digital credits. (When I was younger, we used physical coin tokens and you had to wear pants with pockets deep enough to carry them)

Kid-friendly Vegas

You lose half in a rigged claw machine. A quarter to classic Tekken. And the rest for 7 minutes on a Dance Dance Revolution machine, feet flailing. You tap out, breathless, and redeem your hard-earned tickets — only to realize they get you exactly one pen that barely writes.

 

Did you just waste your money? Maybe.

But notice this: you trusted digital tokens over paper cash because inside the arcade, tokens are simpler, faster, and universally accepted.

Stablecoins are the arcade tokens of today’s global economy — but they don’t stay inside the arcade. They cross borders, never close, and quietly fix the pain points your bank still pretends are normal.

A Fix Hiding in Plain Sight

For all the hype around crypto moons and meme coins, stablecoins solve something far more boring — and therefore, more durable.

They answer a practical question:

How do you move dollars at internet speed, with blockchain-level transparency, and no wire fees or banker’s lunch break in the way?

They’re not here to replace money.

They’re here to upgrade money’s plumbing.

This Is Not a Revolution. It’s an Evolution.

If you look closer, stablecoins echo the big shifts we see playing out worldwide:

De-globalization? When trade routes get political and supply chains come home, people look for new rails to keep money moving, cheaply and discreetly.

De-dollarization? When countries fear dollar-based sanctions, stablecoins become a side door: a shadow dollar that’s programmable and borderless.

Decentralization? When trust in big intermediaries fades, people put faith in math. A blockchain ledger, open to all, beats a bank vault open 9–5.

Stablecoins quietly ride all three currents. They’re not protest coins or Ponzi bets. They’re pragmatic bridges from old pipes to new flows.

Why Use Them? Let’s Talk Chips

In Vegas, nobody slaps a hundred-dollar bill on the blackjack table. You use chips — faster, uniform, cashable anytime.

Heyokha Movie Favorites: “The Big Short” – specifically the scene with Selena Gomez explaining how CDOs work using the game of poker

Stablecoins? Same idea — except the casino is the global financial system.

Want to lend, borrow, or earn yield in crypto? You don’t wire money to some shady middleman. You park stablecoins on a blockchain app — better known as DeFi (short for Decentralized Finance). DeFi is just your local bank’s back office — minus the marble lobby and surly tellers.

Stablecoins make DeFi run smoothly:

• Programmable, so smart contracts do the paperwork.
• Redeemable, so trust is collateralised — real dollars and Treasuries sit behind them, verified by auditors.
• Global, so they ignore time zones and national borders.

Poker chips work because the casino cage redeems them at face value.

Stablecoins work because trustworthy issuers (like Circle’s USDC) guarantee that for every token minted, a real dollar or Treasury bill sits safely somewhere, verified by auditors.

Break that trust (hello, Terra Luna), and the market teaches a swift lesson.

Real World, Real Money

Here’s the kicker:

Tether, the biggest stablecoin, moves ~$100 billion daily, with ~90% of that volume living in emerging markets where people trust crypto dollars more than their own banks.

And this product? It’s now the backbone for tokenized Treasuries, DeFi lending, and cross-border paychecks — areas where “fast money” used to mean “expensive wires.”

  

Stablecoins rapidly becoming mainstream- in banking, groceries, and even in gaming!

When crypto kids sniff out an edge, that’s fun.

When Stripe, Visa, JPMorgan, and Citi sniff it too — you pay attention.

• Stripe scooped up Bridge for stablecoin rails and Privy for embedded wallets — so any dev can build instant crypto payments in five clicks.
• Visa & Mastercard pilot stablecoin settlement to cut costly FX loops.
• Big banks, once dismissive, now quietly sketch joint stablecoins to keep cross-border clients from drifting DeFi-ward.

It’s a game of keep-up. And the chips are stablecoins.

Old ETFs, New Tokens

Here’s your granddad’s way:

• Buy a Treasury ETF.
• Wait two days for settlement.
• Wait a month for yield.

The new way:

• Swap stablecoins for a tokenized Treasury.
• Yield streams daily.
• Cash out whenever, globally.

Franklin Templeton, the global investment firm? Doing it.

Stripe? Enabling it.

Next? Everyone who hates wire fees.

Final Thought: Chips at a Global Table

Odds you win that claw machine: 1 in 15.

Odds your bank wires your money on time: about the same on a public holiday.

Stablecoins skip both — they just work. They’re the chips on every table — Vegas or Jakarta — letting players bet, cash out, and stay liquid without asking permission.

Stablecoins won’t make you trust fiat again if you ever have doubts, but they might make you trust finance again.

No waiting room. No middleman. No banker asking what the funds are for.

Just verified, auditable, programmable value.

And maybe—just maybe—a new global monetary layer that’s not backed by belief in governments, but by math.

We don’t know if stablecoins will go to the moon, but they might build the bridge to the future.

 

Tara Mulia and Simon Chan

Admin heyokha

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Loneliness, Third Spaces, and Why Pets Are Quietly Taking Over the Economy

Last weekend at a pet shop, we stumbled upon a towering display of prams—not for babies, but for dogs. Yes, dogs. Each stroller more stylish and padded than the next.

And it made us wonder: the next time you see someone pushing a stroller down the street, will you coo at a baby—or be met with the panting snout of a Pomeranian named Mochi?

Not a shocker, really. In a world where third spaces are increasingly rare and the cost of raising a child has skyrocketed, many are turning to pets for connection, purpose, and companionship.

Welcome to the Micro-Connection Era. And no, we’re not surprised.

The Loneliest Generation? We’ve Seen This Coming

We’ve never been more connected. And never felt more alone.

According to a 2023 Harris Poll, nearly 80% of Americans would choose a completely in-person social life over a digital-only one. Globally, governments are responding with white papers, ministers of loneliness, and social strategies. Investors might want to respond too.

Because loneliness? That’s a market signal.

Sociologist Ray Oldenburg once coined the term “third places”—places outside of home and work where people gather. Coffee shops, gyms, parks, padel courts.

Now, we’re seeing the evolution: “fourth places.” Book clubs. Pottery meetups. Padel groups. According to Eventbrite’s 2023 survey, 73% of 18–35 year olds plan to attend in-person events soon. Even better? 85% of those who already did said they made a close friend.

It’s clear. Gen Z and Millennials don’t just want community. They’re building it. But when they can’t find it?

They adopt it. Fur, paws, and all.

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Previously on Heyokha…

Remember our deep dive into the Microjoy Economy—where small, emotionally potent purchases like Labubu toys reflected a shift from macro-consumption to micro-splurges? Consider this the sequel. And yes, we still believe in the power of joy per Rupiah.

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Pets: The New Social Infrastructure

When you can’t find a third space, a third species will do.

According to a 2023 OnePoll survey for Synchrony:

• 41% of Gen Z would rather spend $100 on their pet than their partner.
• 36% of Gen Z say they get more joy from seeing their pet happy than their partner.
• 42% would skip vacations to save for surprise pet costs.
• 45% would give up eating out for a year in exchange for free pet care.
• Nearly half of millennials would sleep outside in the snow if it meant their pet could live one more year.

We are not joking. But we are impressed.

And let’s talk money. Synchrony estimates that the total cost of raising a dog over a lifetime can range between $20,000 and $55,000. For cats, it’s $15,000–$46,000. In an era where human babies feel financially impossible, pets are stepping into the emotional—and budgetary—void.

Babies? Maybe Not. But Definitely a Beagle.

According to Pew Research, 47% of young U.S. adults now say they’re unlikely to have children. Why? Top reasons include:

• It’s too expensive.
• The world feels unstable.
• Honestly, they just don’t want to.

So what do they want instead?

• Something cuddly.
• Something emotionally validating.
• Something you can name after your favorite drinks or dessert without much judgement.

Hence: the fur baby boom.

In fact, Gen Z spends an average of $178/month on their pets, according to Lemonade the insurance company (2024). That’s nearly $90/month more than Boomers. Over a pet’s lifetime, that translates into luxury-brand-level spending.

And all this love for pets? It’s also changing the labor market. According to Indeed’s 2025 Best Jobs list, veterinarian is now the #1 job in America. Job postings for vets rose 124% between 2021 and 2024.

Even our career aspirations are going to the dogs. Literally.

Indonesia Is Right On Cue

In Indonesia, malls have gone from “no pets allowed” to rolling out red carpets for fur babies. Major shopping centers now provide pet-access zones, dedicated parks, hydration corners, and yes—boutique grooming services inside the mall.

 

And if you’re still wondering whether pets have made it into the mainstream, just ask Bobby.

Yes, President Prabowo’s cat Bobby is arguably the most influential feline in the country. With over 1 million Instagram followers, Bobby doesn’t just sit pretty—he rolls up to events in a customized Rp6.5 million stroller (equivalent to $400 USD), flanked by a full security detail. And when Bobby made a public appearance, even Bill Gates showed up to meet him.

1 million fans for the feline. We weren’t kidding about Bill Gates. He even gifted Bobby a whale plush toy.

Bobby rolling into Jakarta’s Pet Fest as an honorary guest, decked out in his custom stroller equipped with an iPad. Bobby is so popular he has a Wikipedia.

The message is clear: in Indonesia, fur babies aren’t just welcome. They’re VIPs.

Indonesia’s digitally native, pet-loving population makes it fertile ground for this shift. Pets, once confined to the home, are now part of the daily fabric of urban leisure—and even statecraft, apparently.

Investor Implications: It’s a Fur-Midable Market

Some might brush this off as fluff. But don’t let the tiny sweaters and diamond-studded scratching posts fool you.

This is a market.

And it’s a sticky one. Pets don’t get cheaper as they age. They get more expensive. And pet owners? They’re loyal. More loyal than… well, most customers in any other vertical.

The winners in this space will be:

• Platforms that combine quality with personalization
• Brands that offer emotional ROI, not just calories
• Services that integrate grooming, vet care, and wellness under one app, one brand, one leash

And as traditional third spaces evolve—or vanish—brands that can become proxy communities will capture not just wallets, but hearts.

In a time when people are skipping weddings, deferring mortgages, and swiping right less often than they’re checking their dog’s calorie tracker, one thing is clear:

This isn’t just a lifestyle shift. It’s a portfolio opportunity.

So the next time you pass a stroller on the street, don’t assume it’s a baby in that stroller.
It could be your next growth driver—covered in fur, drool, and a Gucci harness.

 

Tara Mulia

Admin heyokha

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Salon in a high premium mall in Central Jakarta. 1pm on Saturday. I should be seeing the last chair being fought over at this point

The salon was empty. On a weekend.

So empty, in fact, that they started offering happy hour promos on a Saturday—a time usually reserved for weddings, reunions, and revenge glow-ups.

When I asked the staff what was going on, she shared: “It’s only busy now during weekday lunch… and it’s mostly just shampoo and blow-dry. No more exclusive packages.”

Doth my eyes deceive me? Monday TO Sunday??

If the best indicator of consumer confidence could be measure by our hair, then it seems the mood has shifted from “treat yourself” to “just trim the split ends”.

On the ground, we’ve also seen another curious signal: a cigarette ad promising: “40% longer lasting.” It’s a strange pitch, but a telling one. The message isn’t about taste or image. It’s about duration.

In other words: We know you’re saving. Let us help you savor

These are not just quirky moments. They are hints of how people are recalibrating their spending.

Some data points:

• Eid holiday travel dropped 24%.
• Ramadan’s usual consumption boost never materialized.
• Sales growth for food, beverage, and tobacco? Just 1.3%—down from 7.5% last year.
• Fuel consumption dipped 1.1% during Eid.
• Debit card transactions declined 4%, while credit card growth slowed notably.

But this isn’t a tale of retreat. It’s one of reinvention.

This is Global

Look beyond Indonesia and you’ll see the same trend lines forming.

In the U.S., credit card delinquencies are creeping toward pandemic-era highs. Klarna—the “Buy Now, Pay Later” poster child—saw its losses double. Nearly half of its users paid late last year; a quarter used it for groceries.

Source: The New York Times

Consumption persists, yes—but often at the cost of savings and future spending. The mood isn’t “fear,” it’s focus. On essentials, on efficiency, and yes—on small, meaningful indulgences.

The Labubu Logic: Why Small Splurges are Big Business

We’re not seeing the end of spending—we’re seeing the evolution of how people choose to spend.

From flashy, high-ticket purchases to lower-cost, higher-yield experiences. From conspicuous consumption to curated comfort.

Because when the future feels hazy, people hold tight to the small things they can control: a quick treat, a satisfying purchase, a moment of delight.

Somewhere between coping and collecting, Labubu Version 3 dropped. With its ombré sparkle and limited availability, it sold out instantly. For many, it wasn’t just a toy—it was a moment of joy, a small win in a time when big wins feel delayed.

Labubu is more than a figurine. It’s the mascot of the Microjoy Economy.

Labubu fans flying to Singapore to get the “Merbubu” exclusive collection. In the UK, some stores had to pause selling because the crowds got too intense

If you squint past the glitter, you’ll see something quietly profound: even when wallets tighten, the need for joy doesn’t disappear. It just finds smaller vessels.

This isn’t irrational. It’s adaptive. A concept economists once called the Lipstick Index—resilient demand for small luxuries during downturns—now has a Gen Z upgrade. Call it Lipstick 2.0 or the Microjoy Index:

• Boba tea over Birkin bags
• a cold whisked matcha over Gucci
• Labubu over long-term planning

These aren’t just trends. They’re emotional hedges. Consumers are engineering their own sense of resilience through affordable indulgence, building a decentralized joy system from the bottom up.

Because when control over the macro feels distant, taking command over a tiny purchase—or ripping open a mystery box—feels like reclaiming something. You can say it’s hedonic risk management with a splash of TikTok sparkle.

Indonesia is Built for This Moment: The Story of Ci Mehong

Indonesia’s consumption culture and demographics make it a prime landscape for this trend:

• Young, mobile-first population
• Familiarity with digital scarcity (e.g. flash sales, hype drops)
• Cultural lean-in to collecting, limited editions, and bite-sized luxury

Rather than pulling back, many consumers are simply changing course with GJP (Gross Joy Product) is rising towards purchases that feel more personal, rewarding, and shareable.

Take Ci Mehong, the viral entrepreneur behind PIK Baking House.

She started with holding baking classes. Then she pivoted—fast. Now she sells premium snacks (think bika ambon and lapis legit), imported fruit, even exclusive cemetery land. All infused with her trademark spunky attitude.

Her secret? Presence. Daily videos, viral challenges, and a direct connection to 700K+ loyal followers. She built not just a product line, but a culture of inclusiveness. A space where high prices feel less intimidating when delivered with flair.

And it works. Not in spite of the times, but because of them. Her success story exemplifies how innovation and adaptability can thrive, even in challenging economic times.

Her secret recipe? Videos of her doing various viral challenges like toppling buckets of butter, daily home cooking and dress shopping achieving that “casual relatable feel” whilst keeping her sassy attitude

Final Thought: Small is the New Smart

We began this story in a salon—eerily quiet on a Saturday.

We passed a cigarette ad selling longevity over luxury.

We ended up with a glittering goblin-like toy named Labubu, a reminder that joy doesn’t have to be expensive—it just needs to be engineered right.

The consumer hasn’t disappeared. They’ve just reallocated.

From splurging on big-ticket aspirations… to investing in small, high-yield feelings.

For investors, this is a map—pointing toward the companies that understand the moment:
✅ Those that package presence, not just product.
✅ Those that master scarcity and storytelling, not just shelf space.
✅ Those that live natively in mobile culture, where virality converts faster than footfall.

This isn’t a downturn. It’s a design brief.

The next wave of winners won’t be those who wait for a rebound in old spending habits—
But those who ride the microjoy wave with precision, playfulness, and presence.

 

Tara Mulia

Admin heyokha

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In 2011, Marc Andreessen, co-founder of Silicon Valley VC firm Andreessen Horowitz, declared: “Software is eating the world.” And for the next decade, it did — with the appetite of a teenager left home alone with a freezer full of pizza pockets. SaaS replaced shelves. Apps replaced advisors. CRM dashboards became the new temples of capitalism.

But now, software’s no longer the one doing the eating.

Because in 2017, Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia — the man whose chips power much of today’s AI revolution — flipped the script. During an interview with MIT Technology Review, he said:

“Software is eating the world, but AI is going to eat software.”

Back then, it sounded like fluff. Today, it sounds prophetic.

So, What Does “AI Eats Software” Actually Mean?

Imagine a world where you don’t click through 12 drop-down menus to run a report, or learn how to use a CRM just to check who missed a follow-up. That’s the old model of software: structured, manual, built for interfaces designed by engineers for other engineers.

Now imagine you just say:

“Show me all clients who haven’t responded in 30 days but opened our latest email.”

And something just… does it. That’s the new paradigm.

AI eats software by bypassing the software interface entirely. It doesn’t click where you would click — it skips the UI altogether. The new interface is natural language, gesture, or intent — what we already use to interact with people.

Why learn =VLOOKUP() when you can ask, “What’s our top-selling product by region in Q1?”
Why wrestle with Salesforce dashboards when you can say, “Remind me who I pitched to last week who liked the blockchain bit”?

You’re no longer operating software. You’re collaborating with cognition.

Microsoft Excel’s first commercial in 1990. Same cells. Same one guy doing all the work

The Software We Might Not Need Anymore

Let’s use a grounded example: Salesforce.

• It’s expensive.
• It’s clunky.
• It’s useful… but mostly because it’s the only thing connecting your emails, contacts, and pipeline.

But what is Salesforce, really? A glorified database — designed to help you remember things and show them nicely.

If an AI can access the same backend and answer your questions directly, what exactly are you paying for? The UI? The clickability? The consulting hours?

Once the value shifts from how you find the data to how well it understands your request, UI-heavy software becomes an endangered species.

A New Definition of Work: Intent → Fulfillment

In today’s workflow, there’s a lot of “middle”:

• Intent: I want to know something.
• Learning the interface: Where do I click? What formula do I use?
• Manual translation: Convert your question into clicks and keystrokes.
• Fulfillment: Finally, the software spits out something (hopefully relevant).

AI collapses this.

With natural language, intent goes straight to fulfillment.

No need to learn how to use a tool that just does what you say.

No more switching between tabs to manually bridge your thoughts from one interface to another.

At some point, all that back-and-forth just wears you down.

This is why software itself is starting to look like a delay, not a productivity boost.

Software was the scaffolding. AI is the elevator.

Adobe’s Awakening: When Models Matter More Than Menus

Take Adobe — a company that’s been a household name for decades. When generative AI boomed, Adobe tried to keep up by launching its own model, Firefly.

Unfortunately, Firefly flopped.

Its performance lagged behind OpenAI and Midjourney, and the creative community noticed. Adobe eventually had to open its platform and integrate outside models.

Lesson learned: having software is not enough. If your AI underperforms, your UI becomes irrelevant. Even giants must kneel to models that work.

The Hardware Renaissance: AI Builds as It Destroys

Here’s the plot twist.

While AI eats software, it simultaneously builds up something else: hardware.

To run massive AI models in real time, we need:

• Data centers
• Specialized chips
• Smart edge devices like wearables, cameras, and autonomous robots

Google’s unveiling of Android XR where their newest headsets and glasses integrates Google Gemini

Huawei also in the smart wearables space with their latest Smart Glasses 2 with AI-powered features and live interpretation feature through voice commands

 

In other words: AI is software reincarnated in physical form. It’s a brain that now needs a body.

This is why Nvidia is booming. Why Huawei is building smart glasses. Why robotics and drones are staging a comeback.

We’re not entering a post-software era. We’re entering a pre-hardware renaissance — built by AI.

Now, how does this all play out in Indonesia? In this race, we may not be building the chips just yet— but we can align with those who do.

That means partnering with the infrastructure players. Becoming part of the AI supply chain, even if we’re not hosting the mainframe ourselves. (Think: nickel for batteries, fiber for connectivity, and sovereign data policies that attract responsible AI builders.)

For Investors: Who’s Toast, Who’s Turbocharged?

Let’s get practical.

If AI eats software, then investors need to rethink what they’re betting on. Here’s how:

• Caution on Software-First Companies
  If their core moat is “we make nice dashboards,” that’s not defensible anymore. Especially if AI models can give the same value — with no interface at all.
• Look for Hardware-Adjacents
  Compute demand is exploding. From cooling companies to chip suppliers to industrial automation — hardware is hot again.
• Back AI-Native Companies
  The ones that are born in this AI-first architecture. Not bolted-on. These firms start with the question: “What can we do if the interface is human language?”

Think less SaaS. Think more intent orchestration layers.

Final Thought: What If AI Isn’t Just the End of Software — But the Start of Simplicity?

Maybe “AI eats software” sounds scary because we’ve grown up thinking software was the prize. That learning Excel made us employable. That CRM mastery meant you were “good at your job.”

But what if we’ve just been training ourselves to speak “machine”?
And now, finally, the machines speak us?

It’s not the end of software.
It’s the end of unnecessary complexity.

And that means the future of productivity may not be about working harder or coding faster — but about speaking clearly, and letting intelligence do the rest.

 

Tara Mulia and Simon Chan

Admin heyokha

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Morning, Jakarta’s prospector

We are all a prospector, in one way or another

In the old days, prospectors panned rivers for gold; today, they ride motorbikes through Jakarta’s traffic, chasing fortunes of a different kind. From freelancers to sales reps, these urban adventurers trade pickaxes for smartphones, navigating the daily chaos with grit, caffeine, and a dream.

History is full of fortune chasers—rugged gold miners, daring merchants, and scrappy dreamers turning rags to riches. As Adam Smith famously noted, it’s not the butcher’s kindness that brings you meat, but his self-interest. The world runs on hustle, not handouts.

The thrill of prospectors brings back my memory about the movie “Gold”.

Gold (2016) is a gritty adventure-drama inspired by true events, starring Matthew McConaughey as Kenny Wells, a desperate prospector who teams up with a geologist to find gold deep in the jungles of Indonesia. Their discovery triggers a whirlwind of fame, fortune, and Wall Street frenzy—until things unravel in a web of greed, illusion, and betrayal. The film captures the highs and lows of chasing wealth, reminding us how thin the line is between striking it rich and losing everything.

 

The recent gold price action to all-time highs has given birth to new wave of gold prospectors. In Jakarta and reportedly many other cities in Asia, it is a common scene to see people lining up to buy gold bars. An asset class once considered for the elderly is now once again a hot trend.

We are all gold prospectors – Indonesians queued since dawn to buy gold at its peak early April

While recent gold price action has been exhilarating, it evokes mixed feelings for many. Some may fall back on the notion that whatever becomes “mainstream on Main Street” often signals a contrarian opportunity instead. But the lingering question remains: will this time be different?

Testing the waters

I had the privilege of speaking at a seminar for the Hungrystock community in Jakarta on May 1st, 2025.

The audience was filled with fundamental investing enthusiasts. Inspired by Warren Buffett, these individuals spend hours poring over research before making their stock purchases. They also have a fondness for buying stocks on a bargain — the kind that never flinches in the face of a bear market!

The topic of the seminar? Market and Macro Outlook. The room buzzed with curiosity, skepticism, and a shared hunger for what lies beneath the surface of this resource-rich nation, but one topic kept bouncing around the room as I made my way to the stage: “Is gold price going to get any higher?”.

Five minutes into a slide deck, I decided to test the room full of around 150 savvy retail investors with a quick show of hands survey:

“Who owns gold ?”  About 8 people raised their hand (equal to 5% of the audience).

I suppose most of the married people forget what their wedding rings are made of.

“Who owns gold equities?” About four people raised their hand (equal to 2.6% of the audience).

This seems to indicate that gold, either in physical form or equities to be under owned to begin with. At least confined to that room.

Now this is where it gets interesting.

“Who thinks that the gold price is too high and will decline?” About 20 people raised their hand (equal to 13% of the audience).

“Who thinks that the gold price will continue to go up?” About roughly 70 people raised their hand (equivalent to 46% of the audience).

Apparently, most investors are missing the action in gold

The bottom line from this anecdotal exercise indicates that while most people are bullish on the gold price, it remains an under owned asset.

This issue is not just the retail investors. Sprott’s latest Q1-2025 commentary shows Western financial advisers sitting at their lowest gold allocation since 2019, while holdings in gold-backed ETFs remain almost 20 % below the 2020 peak.

Sources: Sprott

Central banks have not missed the game however and are the hoarding metal. Feast your eyes on the century-and-a-half roller-coaster below:

Exhibit A – “Gold’s Revenge Tour.” Gold’s share of global reserves (blue) dominated the pre-WWII era, went on a decades-long hiatus, and is now sneaking back on stage just as the dollar’s share (red) loses a few decibels.

And guess who’s buying backstage passes? Asian central banks specifically—they’ve been the biggest net buyers of bullion since the current dollar bull run kicked off in 2014.

Sources: Gainesville Coins, IMF

The Philosopher’s Nugget

Henry David Thoreau, famous American naturalist and philosopher, once said “There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil to one who is striking at the root”. Investors, likewise, lunge at the branch called “price momentum” and ignore the root called “ownership base.” When ownership is thin, supply of new sellers is thinner still.

Over the last 10 years, freshly mined gold supply has been stagnating.

Source: World Gold Council

Global exploration budgets for new deposits actually fell 3 % last year—even with record gold prices—and it now takes an average of 15 years to shepherd a discovery from first soil sample to first pour.

Source: S&P Global

At the same time over 99 % of existing gold mines are profitable at today’s prices, with industry margins hovering near all-time highs.

Source: Metals Focus Gold Mine Cost Service

Top 10 things people ask Santa for: A time machine

After delivering the market and macro outlook presentation, I went down the stage and spoke with a few of the audience members. It seemed my impromptu survey left a mark on them as some lamented on not buying the bullion at US $1,000—or US $2,000 and wished they could go back in time to urge their past selves.

But here’s the thing – a time machine might not be needed after all – gold equities still trade at single-digit cash-flow multiples while bullion toys with record highs. As Sprott’s John Hathaway puts it, miners offer “significant torque (operational leverage) potential” versus the metal itself.

AISC margins are far higher than they were in 2018 making the HUI Index undervalued relative to gold price

Source: StockCharts

Parting Shot

As people started to file out of the hall, a gentleman approached me:

“Gold still feels risky. Don’t you think it’s overbought?” he paused then added, “But maybe the bigger risk is not owning any.”

That comment rings true now more than ever.
Fiat earned our trust once—backed by discipline, restraint, and real limits.
But over time, that trust has been stretched by endless debt and printing presses.
Gold, on the other hand, doesn’t ask for trust.
It doesn’t promise. It doesn’t default. It just is.
So maybe the real question isn’t whether gold is overbought—
but whether the paper we measure it in still deserves our trust.

 

Nicholas and Tara Mulia

 

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When the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dipped below the psychologically sacred 100 mark, the reaction across markets was immediate and biblical.

Bond yields erupted like a volcano no one had prepared an evacuation plan for.
Volatility rose sharply — not quite “end of the world” levels, but just enough to make traders double their coffee intake and triple-check their hedges.
Gold? Gold didn’t just rise — it strapped on a superhero cape, crashed through a few ceilings, and started flexing in slow motion.

It was, by all appearances, chaos.

And yet, there I sat—having gone through my second matcha in hand—deeply preoccupied with trying to figure out why my toast had burned on only one side.

Because here’s the thing: this wasn’t a heart attack. It was more like a long-overdue jog.

The dollar, after decades of indulgence, is simply trying to slim down. And trimming trade deficits, like trimming body fat, follows the same rule:

• Consume less than you expend

In trade-speak, that means importing less (or exporting more).

• Shed excess weight naturally

A modestly weaker dollar makes U.S. goods cheaper abroad

• Rebalance energy

Domestic factories and payrolls pick up the workload that overseas suppliers had been shouldering.

In that light, a weaker dollar isn’t a breakdown—it’s the feedback loop of a country attempting a strategic reset.

And behind that adjustment lies a bigger story: the U.S., under a Trump 2.0 presidency, is re-evaluating decades of trade dogma—not out of theory, but necessity.

Trump 1.0: Big Talk, Smaller Follow-Through

When Donald Trump took office in 2017, he promised to tear up “unfair trade deals” faster than a kid opens birthday presents.

NAFTA got rebranded as USMCA. Tariffs were slapped on China. Economists panicked.

But in practice?

• The U.S. trade deficit actually grew, from $481 billion in 2016 to $679 billion in 2020.
• Manufacturing jobs saw a brief lift before the pandemic pulled the rug out.
• The Phase One deal with China delivered photo ops but little systemic change.

Trump 1.0 was loud—but left the deeper structural incentives for offshoring intact.
Meanwhile, global rivals like China played a very different game.

The Richman Perspective: Free Trade’s Fine Print

Enter Balanced Trade (2014), by Jesse, Howard, and Raymond Richman.
We don’t quote it because it’s gospel—but because it captures how the U.S. might be viewing its predicament.

The Richmans argued that textbook free trade assumes everyone plays fair. But when countries embrace mercantilism, the game breaks.

Their key points:

• The U.S. hasn’t posted a goods & services surplus since 1976.
• Foreign reserves ballooned from $1.4 trillion (1995) to over $10 trillion (2013).
• America’s net international investment position flipped from +13% (1980) to –35% (2012).

And what’s more concerning: countries like China and Japan don’t spend those dollars on U.S. goods—they buy U.S. debt. As of early 2025, China holds $784.3 billion in Treasuries; Japan, $1.13 trillion. According to the Richmans, that’s not trade – that’s America exporting IOUs.

The Richmans suggest a “scaled tariff”—a self-adjusting levy pegged to bilateral deficits. Not protectionism per se, just a nudge to restore balance.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Service

But again, this is a lens, not the truth. And maybe that’s the deeper takeaway as written by this book:
The U.S. isn’t declaring trade broken—it’s trying to restore competitiveness in a world where others stopped playing by the book long ago.

Trump 2.0: Trade Policy With a Bit More Teeth

Fast-forward to today: Trump 2.0 is leaning hard into so-called “reciprocity”.
Not just at rallies, but across a Washington that’s increasingly skeptical of free-market purity.

What’s on the table:

• Targeted tariffs based on bilateral trade deficits.
• Challenges to WTO rules that limit U.S. retaliation.
• Industrial policy tied to national security, encouraging onshoring of critical supply chains.

Of course, nothing is free.
A Brookings Institution report estimated that the 2018–2019 tariffs cost American consumers $57 billion a year. But for many voters—and policymakers—some level of sacrifice now feels worth it.

Globalization might have been a perfectly beautiful idea, but according to the Richmans, it is far from perfect in reality.

Global Reverberations: Some Win, Some Whimper

If the U.S. doubles down on “balanced trade,” ripple effects will follow.

Potential Winners:

• Emerging markets: India, Vietnam, Mexico—likely alternatives to China in the new supply chain map.
• Commodities: Reshoring means higher demand for industrial metals, energy, and logistics.
• Selective U.S. sectors: Tech, pharma, and defense-related manufacturing.

Likely Losers:

• Export-reliant economies like Germany, South Korea, and Japan.
• Global investors navigating rising FX and bond volatility.

The IMF warns: if tariffs become widespread, global GDP could shrink by 0.5%.
Not world-ending, but not nothing either.

Food for Thought: Was Free Trade Ever Really Free?

The Trump 2.0 shift isn’t just about tariffs—it’s a symptom of deeper anxieties:

• If globalization weakens national resilience, is it still worth it?
• Can you really have fair trade, and what does fair trade rhetorically even really mean?
• Is consumption-driven growth sustainable when you’ve outsourced everything?

The Richmans’ thesis? Free trade without balance is like a gym membership you never use: looks virtuous, accomplishes nothing, eventually hurts your back.

But maybe it’s not even about trade. Maybe this is more of a consistent reaction from a dominant power threatened by a rising power.

Whether led by Trump or simply the prevailing mood in Washington, the world is clearly shifting toward a more fractured, competitive, less globalized future.

The rules are changing.
Act II has begun.

Fasten your seatbelt—and maybe stash a few gold coins, just in case.

 

Simon Chan and Tara Mulia

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The city was still wrapped in that pre-dawn quietness when we left Jakarta at 6 AM, the kind of calm that settles just after heavy rain. A ragtag group—friends, colleagues, and fellow travelers in the investment track—rolled out toward Sentul, an hour ride away from Jakarta,  half-awake but fully committed to spending the day sweating voluntarily.

The night’s downpour meant one thing: mud. Some of us secretly hoped for another drizzle, a convenient excuse to bail. But, in classic group fashion, everyone acted enthusiastic.

We arrived around seven, the air thick with mist. A smiling local guide sized us up, and perhaps sensing our collective overconfidence, cheerily recommended the “advanced” trail. A few uncertain glances exchanged; nods followed—because how bad could it be, really?

Braving through the mud

The trail began deceptively easy—bamboo groves, damp ferns, serene surroundings. Soon enough, though, the incline sharpened. Mud turned slick underfoot; roots became both handholds and trip hazards. Each step was carefully placed. Eyes down, minds focused. Nobody was planning more than a foot ahead.

Then came a shout:

“Stop and look!”

Reluctantly lifting our gaze from immediate challenges, we were met with a view that made jaws drop. The village below, so minuscule from up here, marked our unnoticed progress. How far we’d climbed, step by muddy step, was remarkable.

And in that quiet, reflective pause, a familiar thought struck me:

How quickly we forget the journey when momentarily slipping in the mud.

In investing, a bad season can make any investor nervous. We stare at our immediate steps—worrying over recent downturns, quick to question, quicker to criticize. But zoom out just a little, and those “terrible seasons” fade into the broader narrative—a story where money doubles, triples, even quintuples.

It’s easy to forget how far we’ve climbed when we’re busy cursing the mud.

Howard Marks had a point: “If you avoid the losers, the winners take care of themselves.” Or translated for our hike: “Manage your footing, and the peak will eventually appear.”

The climb continued, rhythmically challenging yet strangely meditative. Conversations bubbled up once the terrain eased—laughing, debating, and exchanging exaggerated “war stories” from past hikes. I noticed different hiking styles mirrored how people approach problems: some methodically tracking every meter of ascent, others instinctively reading the terrain, while a few trusted blindly (perhaps a little too blindly) in luck. Different methods, same muddy path.

And all the while, the trail kept throwing surprises at us. Just like the market. One minute it’s calm, the next you’re dodging another slippery slope. A bit like keeping up with tariffs in the news: Monday it’s elections, Tuesday it’s 34% tariffs, by lunch the Fed speaks, and before you finish your coffee it’s 54% tariffs. Elon tweets something, up it goes to 104%, then Trump posts on social media and suddenly it’s 145%. At some point you stop checking and just focus on not faceplanting.

   

 

No shortcuts emerged. No “cheat codes.” Just consistent, cautious steps forward—punctuated by occasional helping hands, usually just before someone slid embarrassingly backward.

By lunchtime, exhausted and muddy, we descended back to base, hunger gnawing pleasantly. The post-hike BBQ was undeservedly delicious, a payoff disproportionate to our modest morning exertion.

Driving back, staring at Jakarta’s familiar skyline, the day’s symbolism was clear as day. Progress rarely announces itself. Whether on a mountain or in a market, it’s the quiet, consistent effort that accumulates into something meaningful. A few moments may look messy. Some stretches may feel like setbacks. But give it time, step back, and the bigger picture starts to reveal itself.

Markets, much like misty mountain trails, reward patience over panic, steadiness over speed, and presence over noise.

Keep walking through the mud, and sooner or later, you’ll find yourself at heights you never expected. The view, as always, will take care of itself.

   

 

Aryo Soerjohadi

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I remember the moment vividly. I was sitting alone, eyes skimming across a late-night article when the words hit me: human intelligence may have peaked around 2012.

At first, I laughed—sharp, startled, almost too loud for the silence of the room. But it wasn’t joy that bubbled up. It was that peculiar kind of laughter we sometimes summon to soften the sting of something profoundly unsettling. Beneath the chuckle was a quiet ache, the kind of laugh you let out when the ship’s already halfway sunk and someone points out the hole – as if I had just stumbled upon an obituary for our collective potential.

Could it really be true that the year we collectively lost our minds to “Gangnam Style” marked the height of our cognitive brilliance?

Yet as I sipped my tea, the absurdity faded into uneasy plausibility. According to the OECD’s PISA score, our global yardstick for reading, math, and science, we’ve been quietly declining ever since. Adults aren’t immune either; a third of Americans reportedly struggle with basic mathematical reasoning. No wonder family dinners can spiral from civil to chaotic faster than Twitter feuds—minus character limits, but with twice the drama.

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Source: Financial Times, OECD, PISA PIAAC, and Adult Literacy and Lifeskills Survey

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But hold your despair—I’m writing this precisely to preserve our collective IQ, a modest attempt at intellectual CPR in a sea of digital distraction.

Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein’s groundbreaking book, Nudge, introduces choice architecture—the subtle art of shaping decisions without limiting freedom. Ironically, social-media giants have mastered the dark side of that idea, nudging us toward dopamine loops that short-circuit deeper thought.

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Source: Chat GPT

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Yet the same principle also guides policy on a far larger canvas. Sovereign wealth funds are countries’ macro-nudges: vast pools of capital intended to steer windfalls into long-term prosperity. Norway’s Government Pension Fund is the poster child — transparent, disciplined, quietly compounding for future generations. Malaysia’s 1MDB is the cautionary flip side, showing how quickly the architecture crumbles when sunlight and scrutiny vanish.

Which brings us to Indonesia’s bold move: Danantara. Conceived to overhaul a sprawl of 800 state-owned enterprises, Danantara aims to nudge them — with slimmer boards, clearer incentives, and outside capital — toward sharper efficiency and healthier profits.

Take Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ), for instance. Following their March 2025 shareholder meeting, the board slimmed dramatically from ten commissioners down to six, cutting bureaucracy and refocusing on clear, market-oriented KPIs like total returns, regional benchmarking, and asset quality. If that isn’t stock market friendly governance – I don’t know what is.

Danantara plans to shrink about 800 SOEs into a more digestible 200, shifting public-service obligations directly to the government’s budget. Recently, it even sealed a solid $4 billion partnership with Qatar Investment Authority, a rather impressive thumbs-up from abroad.

Yet, Danantara isn’t without its skeptics—and perhaps rightly so. Governance is a challenge; juggling transparency, accountability, and efficiency across a vast portfolio isn’t exactly a walk in the park. Political influence remains a lurking threat, raising fears about meddling undermining the fund’s credibility. And let’s not forget the Herculean task of merging diverse corporate cultures and systems—a bit like blending oil, water, and a dash of chili sauce and hoping for gourmet cuisine.

Still, history offers comfort here. Barton Biggs, in his insightful book Wealth, War and Wisdom, reassures us that in the long run markets rewards patience, adaptability, and strategic prudence rather than reactionary panic. Danantara’s calculated, steady adjustments resonate deeply with this historical wisdom.

Back to the original point – what captures our online attention? Not the careful restructuring or billion-dollar partnerships, but isolated controversies or catchy headlines. Behavioral economics explains this perfectly: negativity bias and the availability heuristic lead us to equate visibility with importance. The architecture of our digital platforms nudges us toward reacting rather than reflecting.

Perhaps the renaissance we need isn’t limited to institutional reforms but extends to reclaiming our own attention and discernment. In an age of engineered distraction, the ultimate intelligence might just be knowing where to place our focus— recognizing the quieter, transformative work of initiatives like Danantara is precisely the kind of intellectual revival we need.

So next time I catch myself endlessly scrolling, half-liking forgettable posts and wondering why sock ads chase me after a single chat mention, I’ll remind myself to choose substance instead. A book that challenges my assumptions, a report that deepens understanding, or perhaps a thoughtful reflection on quieter transformations.

After all, true intelligence today isn’t just about what we know— it’s about deciding thoughtfully where to direct our attention. And perhaps, in doing so, we might start noticing transformative stories like Danantara that deserve far more than just a fleeting glance.

 

Wuddy Warsono, CFA and Tara Mulia

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Markets aren’t just driven by cold, hard numbers—they thrive on drama, narratives, and sometimes, sheer comedic timing. In a twist that’s almost poetic, Donald Trump’s iconic bestseller, The Art of the Deal, has shot back to the top of Amazon’s charts, precisely as Trump unleashes yet another tariff tornado. Coincidence? We think not. It’s almost as if investors are flipping through the pages looking for clues.

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“The Art of the Deal” shoots up in first place. Coming close in second? The same deal

Seems like it’s not just Amazon users, people truly are searching for answers in Google

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Tariffs? Again? (Quickly, because you know already and it’s changing every second anyway):

Trump’s latest trade war moves are bigger, louder, and more bewildering than ever. If fully enacted, these tariffs would hit about US$1 trillion in global trade. Notably, potential spikes in U.S. bond yields could drive refinancing costs up by nearly $900 billion, a number Trump probably wouldn’t describe as “beautiful.”

Goodbye Safe Havens, Hello Reality Check

Here’s something intriguing: investors, usually quick to grab U.S. Treasuries and U.S. dollars at the faintest whiff of trouble, are avoiding them like leftover sushi at a gas station. Rather than flocking to these classic safe havens, markets are selling off both Treasuries and the dollar.

But hold your conclusions—this bond sell-off might not necessarily signal a broader loss of faith in U.S. safe havens. Hedge funds with significant short positions might be the culprits, potentially even including Japan or China, who hold the largest and second largest holdings of U.S. Treasuries at $1.079 trillion and $706.8 billion respectively. Such strategic selling could have sent a strong message, prompting Trump to reconsider his aggressive tariff stance.

So why the sudden pause from Trump? If you crunch the numbers, the revenue from new tariffs wouldn’t offset the soaring refinancing costs of rising bond yields. Essentially, Trump might have inadvertently created a panic without tangible economic benefit, leading to this pause. His plan might have originally been to push investors from equities to bonds, driving yields down. But markets seldom follow such neat scripts. As Trump wisely noted in The Art of the Deal, “The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it.” Maybe the bond market caught him looking a bit too eager, prompting a quick recalculation.

Distrust and the End of American Exceptionalism?

While it’s too early to confidently declare the end of American financial dominance, there’s a growing suspicion that investor trust in U.S. fiscal policy is beginning to fray, a topic we suspect and covered extensively in our recent report.

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Q3 2024 Special Report on De-dollarization found in our website

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Could it be the US is losing its financial “comfort blanket” status? With net interest payments and entitlements now gobbling up a staggering 96% of federal receipts, maybe creditors are starting to wonder if Uncle Sam is running out of couch cushions to shake loose for spare change.

The game is shifting. Trump recently said he’s “watching the bond market” and described it as “beautiful.” But beauty, Mr. Trump, is in the eye of the bondholder, and they seem increasingly nervous.

And it’s not just the money game that’s changing; global power dynamics are shifting too. This is the first time since 1945 that the rule-based order is under significant strain. China is centralizing and solidifying its role as America’s prime challenger, while the US responds with nationalist policies. This rivalry threatens the international order, complicating collaboration that the U.S. has been building since the end of World War 2 on existential threats like climate change, pandemics, and cyber security. But hey, why worry about global crises when there’s real estate in Greenland to talk about? As Trump wrote himself in the book, “Location is everything”. We should have known it’s simply prime real estate for him.

Trump’s transactional approach—think buying Greenland or reclaiming the Panama Canal—reflects a divided American electorate. One half cheers nationalism; the other yearns for liberal internationalism. Meanwhile, mounting debt, military spending, and stagnant wages have fractured the political center, turning global leadership into a spectacle.

Calm Before the CAPEX Storm?

While the tariff tornado seems to have momentarily calmed, businesses are stuck wondering: How do you plan long-term investments when policy changes faster than Trump’s Twitter mood? Perhaps the answer lies in reading the “Art of the Deal” (1987) Granted this book was published in the 90s, but hey, people rarely change right? Unanswered questions linger, and that uncertainty might be the new normal.

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Viral AI image: Essential reading for President Xi

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Speaking of Confidence… China’s Feeling Pretty Good!

Ironically, amidst Trump’s tariff tempest, China appears surprisingly calm. Xi Jinping’s government has spent years reducing its economic dependence on America, now directing less than 15% of its exports to America—down from nearly 20% in 2017, and recent domestic economic boosts have cushioned the blow. Heck, China’s prime minister recently bragged about an animated film, Ne Zha 2, smashing box-office records beating every Disney and Pixar film —apparently a stronger economic indicator than we thought.

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Ne Zha 2 is the first animated movie to pass $2 billion at the global box office

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Beijing’s matching tariff strategy is textbook game theory: whatever the U.S. does, China mirrors, seeking equilibrium in escalating tensions.

But China’s boldness could have another layer: it might be leveraging its massive Treasury holdings to signal its capability and willingness to cause disruption. If hedge fund selling is indeed partly influenced by China, it’s clear Beijing is signaling to Trump: “We can cause panic too.”

Now, Back to Trump and Roy Cohn’s Playbook

Trump’s mentor, the infamous Roy Cohn, laid out three strategies: attack relentlessly, deny everything, and always claim victory. Trump’s recent comments echo this playbook perfectly.

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Roy Cohn and Donald Trump played by Jeremy Strong and Sebastian Stan in the film “The Apprentice”

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Attack, Attack, Attack: Trump lashed out on social media, accusing China of economic exploitation, recently tweeting: “China continues its theft! They must pay!”

Admit Nothing, Deny Everything: When economists warned tariffs were hurting Americans, Trump tweeted dismissively, “Tariffs are great! They’re filling our coffers!”

Always Claim Victory, Never Admit Defeat: Trump recently boasted, “China is begging to negotiate, tariffs working beautifully!” Meanwhile, economists nervously glanced at GDP forecasts.

Wrapping It All Up

So, what’s the moral of this chaotic tale? Trump’s tariffs are doing more than rattling markets—they’re reshaping global economic confidence and challenging America’s longstanding financial dominance. And while Trump watches the bond market thinking it’s a masterpiece, the rest of us might want to buckle up—because this is less beautiful and more… abstract art.

With the bond market now more comedy than classic, investors might find themselves laughing to cope—because in today’s world, humor might just be the best investment strategy available.

Tara Mulia

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