Month: May 2025

In 2011, Marc Andreessen, co-founder of Silicon Valley VC firm Andreessen Horowitz, declared: “Software is eating the world.” And for the next decade, it did — with the appetite of a teenager left home alone with a freezer full of pizza pockets. SaaS replaced shelves. Apps replaced advisors. CRM dashboards became the new temples of capitalism.

But now, software’s no longer the one doing the eating.

Because in 2017, Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia — the man whose chips power much of today’s AI revolution — flipped the script. During an interview with MIT Technology Review, he said:

“Software is eating the world, but AI is going to eat software.”

Back then, it sounded like fluff. Today, it sounds prophetic.

So, What Does “AI Eats Software” Actually Mean?

Imagine a world where you don’t click through 12 drop-down menus to run a report, or learn how to use a CRM just to check who missed a follow-up. That’s the old model of software: structured, manual, built for interfaces designed by engineers for other engineers.

Now imagine you just say:

“Show me all clients who haven’t responded in 30 days but opened our latest email.”

And something just… does it. That’s the new paradigm.

AI eats software by bypassing the software interface entirely. It doesn’t click where you would click — it skips the UI altogether. The new interface is natural language, gesture, or intent — what we already use to interact with people.

Why learn =VLOOKUP() when you can ask, “What’s our top-selling product by region in Q1?”
Why wrestle with Salesforce dashboards when you can say, “Remind me who I pitched to last week who liked the blockchain bit”?

You’re no longer operating software. You’re collaborating with cognition.

Microsoft Excel’s first commercial in 1990. Same cells. Same one guy doing all the work

The Software We Might Not Need Anymore

Let’s use a grounded example: Salesforce.

• It’s expensive.
• It’s clunky.
• It’s useful… but mostly because it’s the only thing connecting your emails, contacts, and pipeline.

But what is Salesforce, really? A glorified database — designed to help you remember things and show them nicely.

If an AI can access the same backend and answer your questions directly, what exactly are you paying for? The UI? The clickability? The consulting hours?

Once the value shifts from how you find the data to how well it understands your request, UI-heavy software becomes an endangered species.

A New Definition of Work: Intent → Fulfillment

In today’s workflow, there’s a lot of “middle”:

• Intent: I want to know something.
• Learning the interface: Where do I click? What formula do I use?
• Manual translation: Convert your question into clicks and keystrokes.
• Fulfillment: Finally, the software spits out something (hopefully relevant).

AI collapses this.

With natural language, intent goes straight to fulfillment.

No need to learn how to use a tool that just does what you say.

No more switching between tabs to manually bridge your thoughts from one interface to another.

At some point, all that back-and-forth just wears you down.

This is why software itself is starting to look like a delay, not a productivity boost.

Software was the scaffolding. AI is the elevator.

Adobe’s Awakening: When Models Matter More Than Menus

Take Adobe — a company that’s been a household name for decades. When generative AI boomed, Adobe tried to keep up by launching its own model, Firefly.

Unfortunately, Firefly flopped.

Its performance lagged behind OpenAI and Midjourney, and the creative community noticed. Adobe eventually had to open its platform and integrate outside models.

Lesson learned: having software is not enough. If your AI underperforms, your UI becomes irrelevant. Even giants must kneel to models that work.

The Hardware Renaissance: AI Builds as It Destroys

Here’s the plot twist.

While AI eats software, it simultaneously builds up something else: hardware.

To run massive AI models in real time, we need:

• Data centers
• Specialized chips
• Smart edge devices like wearables, cameras, and autonomous robots

Google’s unveiling of Android XR where their newest headsets and glasses integrates Google Gemini

Huawei also in the smart wearables space with their latest Smart Glasses 2 with AI-powered features and live interpretation feature through voice commands

 

In other words: AI is software reincarnated in physical form. It’s a brain that now needs a body.

This is why Nvidia is booming. Why Huawei is building smart glasses. Why robotics and drones are staging a comeback.

We’re not entering a post-software era. We’re entering a pre-hardware renaissance — built by AI.

Now, how does this all play out in Indonesia? In this race, we may not be building the chips just yet— but we can align with those who do.

That means partnering with the infrastructure players. Becoming part of the AI supply chain, even if we’re not hosting the mainframe ourselves. (Think: nickel for batteries, fiber for connectivity, and sovereign data policies that attract responsible AI builders.)

For Investors: Who’s Toast, Who’s Turbocharged?

Let’s get practical.

If AI eats software, then investors need to rethink what they’re betting on. Here’s how:

• Caution on Software-First Companies
  If their core moat is “we make nice dashboards,” that’s not defensible anymore. Especially if AI models can give the same value — with no interface at all.
• Look for Hardware-Adjacents
  Compute demand is exploding. From cooling companies to chip suppliers to industrial automation — hardware is hot again.
• Back AI-Native Companies
  The ones that are born in this AI-first architecture. Not bolted-on. These firms start with the question: “What can we do if the interface is human language?”

Think less SaaS. Think more intent orchestration layers.

Final Thought: What If AI Isn’t Just the End of Software — But the Start of Simplicity?

Maybe “AI eats software” sounds scary because we’ve grown up thinking software was the prize. That learning Excel made us employable. That CRM mastery meant you were “good at your job.”

But what if we’ve just been training ourselves to speak “machine”?
And now, finally, the machines speak us?

It’s not the end of software.
It’s the end of unnecessary complexity.

And that means the future of productivity may not be about working harder or coding faster — but about speaking clearly, and letting intelligence do the rest.

 

Tara Mulia and Simon Chan

Admin heyokha

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Morning, Jakarta’s prospector

We are all a prospector, in one way or another

In the old days, prospectors panned rivers for gold; today, they ride motorbikes through Jakarta’s traffic, chasing fortunes of a different kind. From freelancers to sales reps, these urban adventurers trade pickaxes for smartphones, navigating the daily chaos with grit, caffeine, and a dream.

History is full of fortune chasers—rugged gold miners, daring merchants, and scrappy dreamers turning rags to riches. As Adam Smith famously noted, it’s not the butcher’s kindness that brings you meat, but his self-interest. The world runs on hustle, not handouts.

The thrill of prospectors brings back my memory about the movie “Gold”.

Gold (2016) is a gritty adventure-drama inspired by true events, starring Matthew McConaughey as Kenny Wells, a desperate prospector who teams up with a geologist to find gold deep in the jungles of Indonesia. Their discovery triggers a whirlwind of fame, fortune, and Wall Street frenzy—until things unravel in a web of greed, illusion, and betrayal. The film captures the highs and lows of chasing wealth, reminding us how thin the line is between striking it rich and losing everything.

 

The recent gold price action to all-time highs has given birth to new wave of gold prospectors. In Jakarta and reportedly many other cities in Asia, it is a common scene to see people lining up to buy gold bars. An asset class once considered for the elderly is now once again a hot trend.

We are all gold prospectors – Indonesians queued since dawn to buy gold at its peak early April

While recent gold price action has been exhilarating, it evokes mixed feelings for many. Some may fall back on the notion that whatever becomes “mainstream on Main Street” often signals a contrarian opportunity instead. But the lingering question remains: will this time be different?

Testing the waters

I had the privilege of speaking at a seminar for the Hungrystock community in Jakarta on May 1st, 2025.

The audience was filled with fundamental investing enthusiasts. Inspired by Warren Buffett, these individuals spend hours poring over research before making their stock purchases. They also have a fondness for buying stocks on a bargain — the kind that never flinches in the face of a bear market!

The topic of the seminar? Market and Macro Outlook. The room buzzed with curiosity, skepticism, and a shared hunger for what lies beneath the surface of this resource-rich nation, but one topic kept bouncing around the room as I made my way to the stage: “Is gold price going to get any higher?”.

Five minutes into a slide deck, I decided to test the room full of around 150 savvy retail investors with a quick show of hands survey:

“Who owns gold ?”  About 8 people raised their hand (equal to 5% of the audience).

I suppose most of the married people forget what their wedding rings are made of.

“Who owns gold equities?” About four people raised their hand (equal to 2.6% of the audience).

This seems to indicate that gold, either in physical form or equities to be under owned to begin with. At least confined to that room.

Now this is where it gets interesting.

“Who thinks that the gold price is too high and will decline?” About 20 people raised their hand (equal to 13% of the audience).

“Who thinks that the gold price will continue to go up?” About roughly 70 people raised their hand (equivalent to 46% of the audience).

Apparently, most investors are missing the action in gold

The bottom line from this anecdotal exercise indicates that while most people are bullish on the gold price, it remains an under owned asset.

This issue is not just the retail investors. Sprott’s latest Q1-2025 commentary shows Western financial advisers sitting at their lowest gold allocation since 2019, while holdings in gold-backed ETFs remain almost 20 % below the 2020 peak.

Sources: Sprott

Central banks have not missed the game however and are the hoarding metal. Feast your eyes on the century-and-a-half roller-coaster below:

Exhibit A – “Gold’s Revenge Tour.” Gold’s share of global reserves (blue) dominated the pre-WWII era, went on a decades-long hiatus, and is now sneaking back on stage just as the dollar’s share (red) loses a few decibels.

And guess who’s buying backstage passes? Asian central banks specifically—they’ve been the biggest net buyers of bullion since the current dollar bull run kicked off in 2014.

Sources: Gainesville Coins, IMF

The Philosopher’s Nugget

Henry David Thoreau, famous American naturalist and philosopher, once said “There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil to one who is striking at the root”. Investors, likewise, lunge at the branch called “price momentum” and ignore the root called “ownership base.” When ownership is thin, supply of new sellers is thinner still.

Over the last 10 years, freshly mined gold supply has been stagnating.

Source: World Gold Council

Global exploration budgets for new deposits actually fell 3 % last year—even with record gold prices—and it now takes an average of 15 years to shepherd a discovery from first soil sample to first pour.

Source: S&P Global

At the same time over 99 % of existing gold mines are profitable at today’s prices, with industry margins hovering near all-time highs.

Source: Metals Focus Gold Mine Cost Service

Top 10 things people ask Santa for: A time machine

After delivering the market and macro outlook presentation, I went down the stage and spoke with a few of the audience members. It seemed my impromptu survey left a mark on them as some lamented on not buying the bullion at US $1,000—or US $2,000 and wished they could go back in time to urge their past selves.

But here’s the thing – a time machine might not be needed after all – gold equities still trade at single-digit cash-flow multiples while bullion toys with record highs. As Sprott’s John Hathaway puts it, miners offer “significant torque (operational leverage) potential” versus the metal itself.

AISC margins are far higher than they were in 2018 making the HUI Index undervalued relative to gold price

Source: StockCharts

Parting Shot

As people started to file out of the hall, a gentleman approached me:

“Gold still feels risky. Don’t you think it’s overbought?” he paused then added, “But maybe the bigger risk is not owning any.”

That comment rings true now more than ever.
Fiat earned our trust once—backed by discipline, restraint, and real limits.
But over time, that trust has been stretched by endless debt and printing presses.
Gold, on the other hand, doesn’t ask for trust.
It doesn’t promise. It doesn’t default. It just is.
So maybe the real question isn’t whether gold is overbought—
but whether the paper we measure it in still deserves our trust.

 

Nicholas and Tara Mulia

 

Admin heyokha

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When the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dipped below the psychologically sacred 100 mark, the reaction across markets was immediate and biblical.

Bond yields erupted like a volcano no one had prepared an evacuation plan for.
Volatility rose sharply — not quite “end of the world” levels, but just enough to make traders double their coffee intake and triple-check their hedges.
Gold? Gold didn’t just rise — it strapped on a superhero cape, crashed through a few ceilings, and started flexing in slow motion.

It was, by all appearances, chaos.

And yet, there I sat—having gone through my second matcha in hand—deeply preoccupied with trying to figure out why my toast had burned on only one side.

Because here’s the thing: this wasn’t a heart attack. It was more like a long-overdue jog.

The dollar, after decades of indulgence, is simply trying to slim down. And trimming trade deficits, like trimming body fat, follows the same rule:

• Consume less than you expend

In trade-speak, that means importing less (or exporting more).

• Shed excess weight naturally

A modestly weaker dollar makes U.S. goods cheaper abroad

• Rebalance energy

Domestic factories and payrolls pick up the workload that overseas suppliers had been shouldering.

In that light, a weaker dollar isn’t a breakdown—it’s the feedback loop of a country attempting a strategic reset.

And behind that adjustment lies a bigger story: the U.S., under a Trump 2.0 presidency, is re-evaluating decades of trade dogma—not out of theory, but necessity.

Trump 1.0: Big Talk, Smaller Follow-Through

When Donald Trump took office in 2017, he promised to tear up “unfair trade deals” faster than a kid opens birthday presents.

NAFTA got rebranded as USMCA. Tariffs were slapped on China. Economists panicked.

But in practice?

• The U.S. trade deficit actually grew, from $481 billion in 2016 to $679 billion in 2020.
• Manufacturing jobs saw a brief lift before the pandemic pulled the rug out.
• The Phase One deal with China delivered photo ops but little systemic change.

Trump 1.0 was loud—but left the deeper structural incentives for offshoring intact.
Meanwhile, global rivals like China played a very different game.

The Richman Perspective: Free Trade’s Fine Print

Enter Balanced Trade (2014), by Jesse, Howard, and Raymond Richman.
We don’t quote it because it’s gospel—but because it captures how the U.S. might be viewing its predicament.

The Richmans argued that textbook free trade assumes everyone plays fair. But when countries embrace mercantilism, the game breaks.

Their key points:

• The U.S. hasn’t posted a goods & services surplus since 1976.
• Foreign reserves ballooned from $1.4 trillion (1995) to over $10 trillion (2013).
• America’s net international investment position flipped from +13% (1980) to –35% (2012).

And what’s more concerning: countries like China and Japan don’t spend those dollars on U.S. goods—they buy U.S. debt. As of early 2025, China holds $784.3 billion in Treasuries; Japan, $1.13 trillion. According to the Richmans, that’s not trade – that’s America exporting IOUs.

The Richmans suggest a “scaled tariff”—a self-adjusting levy pegged to bilateral deficits. Not protectionism per se, just a nudge to restore balance.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Service

But again, this is a lens, not the truth. And maybe that’s the deeper takeaway as written by this book:
The U.S. isn’t declaring trade broken—it’s trying to restore competitiveness in a world where others stopped playing by the book long ago.

Trump 2.0: Trade Policy With a Bit More Teeth

Fast-forward to today: Trump 2.0 is leaning hard into so-called “reciprocity”.
Not just at rallies, but across a Washington that’s increasingly skeptical of free-market purity.

What’s on the table:

• Targeted tariffs based on bilateral trade deficits.
• Challenges to WTO rules that limit U.S. retaliation.
• Industrial policy tied to national security, encouraging onshoring of critical supply chains.

Of course, nothing is free.
A Brookings Institution report estimated that the 2018–2019 tariffs cost American consumers $57 billion a year. But for many voters—and policymakers—some level of sacrifice now feels worth it.

Globalization might have been a perfectly beautiful idea, but according to the Richmans, it is far from perfect in reality.

Global Reverberations: Some Win, Some Whimper

If the U.S. doubles down on “balanced trade,” ripple effects will follow.

Potential Winners:

• Emerging markets: India, Vietnam, Mexico—likely alternatives to China in the new supply chain map.
• Commodities: Reshoring means higher demand for industrial metals, energy, and logistics.
• Selective U.S. sectors: Tech, pharma, and defense-related manufacturing.

Likely Losers:

• Export-reliant economies like Germany, South Korea, and Japan.
• Global investors navigating rising FX and bond volatility.

The IMF warns: if tariffs become widespread, global GDP could shrink by 0.5%.
Not world-ending, but not nothing either.

Food for Thought: Was Free Trade Ever Really Free?

The Trump 2.0 shift isn’t just about tariffs—it’s a symptom of deeper anxieties:

• If globalization weakens national resilience, is it still worth it?
• Can you really have fair trade, and what does fair trade rhetorically even really mean?
• Is consumption-driven growth sustainable when you’ve outsourced everything?

The Richmans’ thesis? Free trade without balance is like a gym membership you never use: looks virtuous, accomplishes nothing, eventually hurts your back.

But maybe it’s not even about trade. Maybe this is more of a consistent reaction from a dominant power threatened by a rising power.

Whether led by Trump or simply the prevailing mood in Washington, the world is clearly shifting toward a more fractured, competitive, less globalized future.

The rules are changing.
Act II has begun.

Fasten your seatbelt—and maybe stash a few gold coins, just in case.

 

Simon Chan and Tara Mulia

Admin heyokha

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The city was still wrapped in that pre-dawn quietness when we left Jakarta at 6 AM, the kind of calm that settles just after heavy rain. A ragtag group—friends, colleagues, and fellow travelers in the investment track—rolled out toward Sentul, an hour ride away from Jakarta,  half-awake but fully committed to spending the day sweating voluntarily.

The night’s downpour meant one thing: mud. Some of us secretly hoped for another drizzle, a convenient excuse to bail. But, in classic group fashion, everyone acted enthusiastic.

We arrived around seven, the air thick with mist. A smiling local guide sized us up, and perhaps sensing our collective overconfidence, cheerily recommended the “advanced” trail. A few uncertain glances exchanged; nods followed—because how bad could it be, really?

Braving through the mud

The trail began deceptively easy—bamboo groves, damp ferns, serene surroundings. Soon enough, though, the incline sharpened. Mud turned slick underfoot; roots became both handholds and trip hazards. Each step was carefully placed. Eyes down, minds focused. Nobody was planning more than a foot ahead.

Then came a shout:

“Stop and look!”

Reluctantly lifting our gaze from immediate challenges, we were met with a view that made jaws drop. The village below, so minuscule from up here, marked our unnoticed progress. How far we’d climbed, step by muddy step, was remarkable.

And in that quiet, reflective pause, a familiar thought struck me:

How quickly we forget the journey when momentarily slipping in the mud.

In investing, a bad season can make any investor nervous. We stare at our immediate steps—worrying over recent downturns, quick to question, quicker to criticize. But zoom out just a little, and those “terrible seasons” fade into the broader narrative—a story where money doubles, triples, even quintuples.

It’s easy to forget how far we’ve climbed when we’re busy cursing the mud.

Howard Marks had a point: “If you avoid the losers, the winners take care of themselves.” Or translated for our hike: “Manage your footing, and the peak will eventually appear.”

The climb continued, rhythmically challenging yet strangely meditative. Conversations bubbled up once the terrain eased—laughing, debating, and exchanging exaggerated “war stories” from past hikes. I noticed different hiking styles mirrored how people approach problems: some methodically tracking every meter of ascent, others instinctively reading the terrain, while a few trusted blindly (perhaps a little too blindly) in luck. Different methods, same muddy path.

And all the while, the trail kept throwing surprises at us. Just like the market. One minute it’s calm, the next you’re dodging another slippery slope. A bit like keeping up with tariffs in the news: Monday it’s elections, Tuesday it’s 34% tariffs, by lunch the Fed speaks, and before you finish your coffee it’s 54% tariffs. Elon tweets something, up it goes to 104%, then Trump posts on social media and suddenly it’s 145%. At some point you stop checking and just focus on not faceplanting.

   

 

No shortcuts emerged. No “cheat codes.” Just consistent, cautious steps forward—punctuated by occasional helping hands, usually just before someone slid embarrassingly backward.

By lunchtime, exhausted and muddy, we descended back to base, hunger gnawing pleasantly. The post-hike BBQ was undeservedly delicious, a payoff disproportionate to our modest morning exertion.

Driving back, staring at Jakarta’s familiar skyline, the day’s symbolism was clear as day. Progress rarely announces itself. Whether on a mountain or in a market, it’s the quiet, consistent effort that accumulates into something meaningful. A few moments may look messy. Some stretches may feel like setbacks. But give it time, step back, and the bigger picture starts to reveal itself.

Markets, much like misty mountain trails, reward patience over panic, steadiness over speed, and presence over noise.

Keep walking through the mud, and sooner or later, you’ll find yourself at heights you never expected. The view, as always, will take care of itself.

   

 

Aryo Soerjohadi

Admin heyokha

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