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From Ore to Opportunity: Chronicles of Change in Morowali’s Nickel Industry


From Ore to Opportunity: Chronicles of Change in Morowali’s Nickel Industry

Published: Apr 30 2024

In the span of a decade, the world has undergone transformative changes, some visible in the palm of our hand. The touchscreen technology that allows this blog to be accessed was not nearly as pervasive in 2014. Back then, many of us clung to our BlackBerrys—a brand that has since exited the smartphone market. Reflect on the 2014 FIFA World Cup, where Germany’s stunning 7-1 victory over host Brazil left fans around the globe in disbelief. These moments from ten years ago set the stage for another significant beginning: the presidency of Joko Widodo.

A lot can happen in ten years—technologies evolve, champions are crowned, and nations can be reshaped. Among these, the downstreaming project stands out as a monumental legacy, propelling substantial economic and industrial shifts across Indonesia. Today I look back at my trip to Morowali, a hub of the nickel down streaming project.

What I’ve witnessed firsthand compels belief, yet it surpasses imagination. Join me as we delve into the incredible progress of Indonesia within these 10 years, to help us imagine what the decades to come may hold.

Morowali, March 2024.

Jakarta – Morowali sky: a flight buddy

“Waiting for your turn to board the plane, Morowali style”

Despite rapid development in the past few years, Morowali is still not for the faint-hearted. Plane for example was pretty basic, a propeller plane. In particular, the air conditioning was not properly working, except for a brief few minutes during this 45-minute flight. Nonetheless, the opportunity for an interesting conversation with fellow passengers was more than enough to compensate for the lack of comfort during the flight.

Nandar

ZTE employee, travels to Morowali three times a year, witnessed the rapid economic development since the beginning

I met Nandar, who is originally from the city of Makassar, 400km from Morowali, connected by that 45-minute three times-a-day flight. He works for a Chinese telco network company ZTE and travels to Morowali three times a year. I learned from him that the mobile company Telkomsel (TLKM IJ) generates the biggest revenues in Sulawesi from their Morowali operation. Business-wise, Morowali is already bigger than the largest city in Sulawesi, Makassar. In Morowali, Telkomsel’s biggest competitor is XL Axiata (EXCL IJ).

Burgeoning wealth

Nandar shares his enthusiasm for the progress in Morowali. He said that a decade ago, everyone was poor. Even the head of the village. Nowadays, it is quite a norm for the head of the village to own and drive a Toyota Fortuner (costs c. US$ 35k, equal to 7.4x of Indonesia’s GDP per capita).

Wealth creation breeds a lot of wheelers

Number of cars in Central Sulawesi (thousands)

No. of motorcycles in Central Sulawesi (k units)

Central Sulawesi province GDP per Capita vs. Indonesia’s (US$)

Source: Government data

He said that boarding is not cheap, as the competition for a boarding room is intense. The population in Morowali has gone up from 167k last year to 176k in 2022, a 5% increase compared to 3% increase the year before. A simple room with a plywood wall will set him back by Rp700k (USD 50) per month. A more decent room with a concrete wall costs twice as much. This price matches Jakarta’s price despite the per capita income in Jakarta is quadruple Morowali’s level.

In terms of income, Nandar told us the monthly salary of Morowali workers was at least IDR 6 to 8 mn (US$ 387 to 516) with a median is somewhere between IDR 10 to 15 mn (US$ 645 to 967). This is much higher compared to Jakarta and Makassar’s minimum wage of IDR 4.9 mn (US$ 316) and IDR 3.6 mn (US$ 232) respectively.

But, with high income comes great demand for productivity:

Table: Typical working scheme at IMIP

CategoryWorking scheme
LocalsRp 13 mn (US$ 838) monthly salary 5 working days, 2 days leave\ Rp 15 – 18 mn (US$ 967 to 1,161) monthly salary 8 working days, 2 days leave  
Chinese expatsSalary Unknown 6 months working days (straight), 12 days leave

Nandar told me how the population of Morowali has grown by leaps and bounds.

The aircon was suddenly turned on and Nandar told me that it meant the plane was about to land. Cool air was flowing like the sounds of smooth jazz from a Basin Street bar. Suddenly I did not take the aircon for granted anymore and started to think that aircon was one of the best inventions of the human race. Nandar took it as a cue to end our conversation and got ready for landing. He planned to stay for a week in Morowali.

I used the opportunity before landing to ask him if he had any complaints about Morowali. He said everything was great. He wants his kids to do well in life, going to university and learning Chinese. Oh, actually one complaint, he added.

The food is great in the accommodation provided (the Wisma) in Morowali. Unfortunately, he could not really use chopsticks to eat. As a result, he typically loses quite a bit of weight during a business trip to Morowali. Other than that, for him, Morowali offers a great deal of opportunities. Nandar’s transport and meal allowance in Morowali is Rp100k (US$6.45)/day, twice his usual rate. That certainly incentivises him to love Morowali even more.

“Morowali Airport: somewhat chaotic but works”.

“The simple 10 years to build Morowali Airport”

The scorching heat of the Morowali plain was in complete contrast to the gorgeous sight in front of us. The new Morowali airport (budget was allocated in 2007, but only completed a decade later in 2017, not everything in Morowali is magical) failed to provide much sanctuary from the heat, as most air conditioners in the airport seemed to be already exhausted. Passengers’ bags were stuck in the airport, somewhat chaotic but overall, the airport miraculously worked.

The road to Morowali, the boom town

Next step was a four-hour car trip from Morowali airport to IMIP (Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park), an industrial park with a total area of 4,000 ha and 100,000 workers. To put it into context, the total number of employees was 75,000 when we visited the park in August 2022. The park boasts 54 NPI RKEFs line (8 of which are under construction) with 5 mtpa capacity. These RKEF facilities represent over 55% of such capacities in Indonesia! Not to mention new energy battery materials, 2 HPAL plants; one under construction.

Embarking on this 4-hour journey has unfolded a tapestry of gorgeous views, each moment was brushstroke painting memory of shared conversations. Entering Morowali boom town, the dusty roads echoed tales of frenetic energy, lined with hastily erected structures. The community is vibrant, with a heartbeat of its own. Shops open 24- hours, catering to the newfound prosperity. Not even in Jakarta we see such a crucible of ambition and industry.

“Petrol distribution, BRI Agent, and Smartphone shops open 24/7 hours mean serious business”

We also witnessed many small shops selling gasoline. In fact, it was like every 20 meters we would come across shops selling gasoline. The presence of numerous small shops selling gasoline may indicate a scarcity or distribution challenge in the supply chain. It could be a response to logistical disruption. The official system was somewhat broken.

A resting place for the weary

Before we knew it, we arrived at the famous Wisma IMIP, a five-star facility to host high-level management and IMIP investors.

Nestled in the heart of a remote location, our accommodation facility stands as a beacon of comfort amidst rugged terrain. The combination of comfortable rooms and hearty meals in the spacious dining halls caters to both relaxation and the unique needs of those working in the challenging environment. Thanks to the serene retreat, I was forgetting that I was in Morowali.

The luxury crafted in this guest house seems to reflect their sign of commitment.

Wisma IMIP’s Lobby – a “humble” welcoming

Backyard view: facing the port

Spacious and well-designed meeting room

Dining hall and delicate meals

Comfortable room. Everything inside is “Made in China”, except TOTO sanitary – sign of moat?

Visiting the powerhouse

We also had the opportunity to visit SCM nickel mining site, 40 km away from IMIP. This mining asset is 51% owned by Merdeka Battery (MBMA IJ). The remaining stake is held by Tsingshan.


“Inside Morowali Industirial Park – a testament to the power of perseverance and hard work”

 What’s really striking is the high-quality 40-km hauling road connecting industrial estate IMIP and mining site SCM. This road is clearly the crucial lifeline for efficient operations, unlocking value for the mining assets. Constructed with durability in mind, this road is designed to withstand the heavy road for a very long time. Its robust design incorporates advanced engineering techniques to ensure resilience against the challenging conditions of the mining environment. This road facilitates the smooth movement of heavy machinery and oreladen trucks.

“SCM Hauling Road – an engineering marvel

”The lush forest and the pristine environment is gentle reminder to practice sustainability”

Remarks from the trip

Reflecting on our journey to Morowali’s nickel processing hub, we witness a transformation fueled by perseverance and dedication. The pioneers of this industry, including the vibrant community and dedicated workers of IMIP, exemplify how dedication does not betray the effort invested. The development of infrastructure, like the hauling road and Wisma IMIP, alongside Nandar’s story, highlight growth and resilience. This story epitomizes the transformation of a remote area into an industrial hub. Morowali’s evolution signifies national progress and global market influence. It emphasizes the impact of visionary leadership and industry on growth and prosperity. Hard work betrays none, but dreams betray many…



Admin heyokha



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Published: Apr 30 2024

In the span of a decade, the world has undergone transformative changes, some visible in the palm of our hand. The touchscreen technology that allows this blog to be accessed was not nearly as pervasive in 2014. Back then, many of us clung to our BlackBerrys—a brand that has since exited the smartphone market. Reflect on the 2014 FIFA World Cup, where Germany’s stunning 7-1 victory over host Brazil left fans around the globe in disbelief. These moments from ten years ago set the stage for another significant beginning: the presidency of Joko Widodo.

A lot can happen in ten years—technologies evolve, champions are crowned, and nations can be reshaped. Among these, the downstreaming project stands out as a monumental legacy, propelling substantial economic and industrial shifts across Indonesia. Today I look back at my trip to Morowali, a hub of the nickel down streaming project.

What I’ve witnessed firsthand compels belief, yet it surpasses imagination. Join me as we delve into the incredible progress of Indonesia within these 10 years, to help us imagine what the decades to come may hold.

Morowali, March 2024.

Jakarta – Morowali sky: a flight buddy

“Waiting for your turn to board the plane, Morowali style”

Despite rapid development in the past few years, Morowali is still not for the faint-hearted. Plane for example was pretty basic, a propeller plane. In particular, the air conditioning was not properly working, except for a brief few minutes during this 45-minute flight. Nonetheless, the opportunity for an interesting conversation with fellow passengers was more than enough to compensate for the lack of comfort during the flight.

Nandar

ZTE employee, travels to Morowali three times a year, witnessed the rapid economic development since the beginning

I met Nandar, who is originally from the city of Makassar, 400km from Morowali, connected by that 45-minute three times-a-day flight. He works for a Chinese telco network company ZTE and travels to Morowali three times a year. I learned from him that the mobile company Telkomsel (TLKM IJ) generates the biggest revenues in Sulawesi from their Morowali operation. Business-wise, Morowali is already bigger than the largest city in Sulawesi, Makassar. In Morowali, Telkomsel’s biggest competitor is XL Axiata (EXCL IJ).

Burgeoning wealth

Nandar shares his enthusiasm for the progress in Morowali. He said that a decade ago, everyone was poor. Even the head of the village. Nowadays, it is quite a norm for the head of the village to own and drive a Toyota Fortuner (costs c. US$ 35k, equal to 7.4x of Indonesia’s GDP per capita).

Wealth creation breeds a lot of wheelers

Number of cars in Central Sulawesi (thousands)

No. of motorcycles in Central Sulawesi (k units)

Central Sulawesi province GDP per Capita vs. Indonesia’s (US$)

Source: Government data

He said that boarding is not cheap, as the competition for a boarding room is intense. The population in Morowali has gone up from 167k last year to 176k in 2022, a 5% increase compared to 3% increase the year before. A simple room with a plywood wall will set him back by Rp700k (USD 50) per month. A more decent room with a concrete wall costs twice as much. This price matches Jakarta’s price despite the per capita income in Jakarta is quadruple Morowali’s level.

In terms of income, Nandar told us the monthly salary of Morowali workers was at least IDR 6 to 8 mn (US$ 387 to 516) with a median is somewhere between IDR 10 to 15 mn (US$ 645 to 967). This is much higher compared to Jakarta and Makassar’s minimum wage of IDR 4.9 mn (US$ 316) and IDR 3.6 mn (US$ 232) respectively.

But, with high income comes great demand for productivity:

Table: Typical working scheme at IMIP

CategoryWorking scheme
LocalsRp 13 mn (US$ 838) monthly salary 5 working days, 2 days leave\ Rp 15 – 18 mn (US$ 967 to 1,161) monthly salary 8 working days, 2 days leave  
Chinese expatsSalary Unknown 6 months working days (straight), 12 days leave

Nandar told me how the population of Morowali has grown by leaps and bounds.

The aircon was suddenly turned on and Nandar told me that it meant the plane was about to land. Cool air was flowing like the sounds of smooth jazz from a Basin Street bar. Suddenly I did not take the aircon for granted anymore and started to think that aircon was one of the best inventions of the human race. Nandar took it as a cue to end our conversation and got ready for landing. He planned to stay for a week in Morowali.

I used the opportunity before landing to ask him if he had any complaints about Morowali. He said everything was great. He wants his kids to do well in life, going to university and learning Chinese. Oh, actually one complaint, he added.

The food is great in the accommodation provided (the Wisma) in Morowali. Unfortunately, he could not really use chopsticks to eat. As a result, he typically loses quite a bit of weight during a business trip to Morowali. Other than that, for him, Morowali offers a great deal of opportunities. Nandar’s transport and meal allowance in Morowali is Rp100k (US$6.45)/day, twice his usual rate. That certainly incentivises him to love Morowali even more.

“Morowali Airport: somewhat chaotic but works”.

“The simple 10 years to build Morowali Airport”

The scorching heat of the Morowali plain was in complete contrast to the gorgeous sight in front of us. The new Morowali airport (budget was allocated in 2007, but only completed a decade later in 2017, not everything in Morowali is magical) failed to provide much sanctuary from the heat, as most air conditioners in the airport seemed to be already exhausted. Passengers’ bags were stuck in the airport, somewhat chaotic but overall, the airport miraculously worked.

The road to Morowali, the boom town

Next step was a four-hour car trip from Morowali airport to IMIP (Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park), an industrial park with a total area of 4,000 ha and 100,000 workers. To put it into context, the total number of employees was 75,000 when we visited the park in August 2022. The park boasts 54 NPI RKEFs line (8 of which are under construction) with 5 mtpa capacity. These RKEF facilities represent over 55% of such capacities in Indonesia! Not to mention new energy battery materials, 2 HPAL plants; one under construction.

Embarking on this 4-hour journey has unfolded a tapestry of gorgeous views, each moment was brushstroke painting memory of shared conversations. Entering Morowali boom town, the dusty roads echoed tales of frenetic energy, lined with hastily erected structures. The community is vibrant, with a heartbeat of its own. Shops open 24- hours, catering to the newfound prosperity. Not even in Jakarta we see such a crucible of ambition and industry.

“Petrol distribution, BRI Agent, and Smartphone shops open 24/7 hours mean serious business”

We also witnessed many small shops selling gasoline. In fact, it was like every 20 meters we would come across shops selling gasoline. The presence of numerous small shops selling gasoline may indicate a scarcity or distribution challenge in the supply chain. It could be a response to logistical disruption. The official system was somewhat broken.

A resting place for the weary

Before we knew it, we arrived at the famous Wisma IMIP, a five-star facility to host high-level management and IMIP investors.

Nestled in the heart of a remote location, our accommodation facility stands as a beacon of comfort amidst rugged terrain. The combination of comfortable rooms and hearty meals in the spacious dining halls caters to both relaxation and the unique needs of those working in the challenging environment. Thanks to the serene retreat, I was forgetting that I was in Morowali.

The luxury crafted in this guest house seems to reflect their sign of commitment.

Wisma IMIP’s Lobby – a “humble” welcoming

Backyard view: facing the port

Spacious and well-designed meeting room

Dining hall and delicate meals

Comfortable room. Everything inside is “Made in China”, except TOTO sanitary – sign of moat?

Visiting the powerhouse

We also had the opportunity to visit SCM nickel mining site, 40 km away from IMIP. This mining asset is 51% owned by Merdeka Battery (MBMA IJ). The remaining stake is held by Tsingshan.


“Inside Morowali Industirial Park – a testament to the power of perseverance and hard work”

 What’s really striking is the high-quality 40-km hauling road connecting industrial estate IMIP and mining site SCM. This road is clearly the crucial lifeline for efficient operations, unlocking value for the mining assets. Constructed with durability in mind, this road is designed to withstand the heavy road for a very long time. Its robust design incorporates advanced engineering techniques to ensure resilience against the challenging conditions of the mining environment. This road facilitates the smooth movement of heavy machinery and oreladen trucks.

“SCM Hauling Road – an engineering marvel

”The lush forest and the pristine environment is gentle reminder to practice sustainability”

Remarks from the trip

Reflecting on our journey to Morowali’s nickel processing hub, we witness a transformation fueled by perseverance and dedication. The pioneers of this industry, including the vibrant community and dedicated workers of IMIP, exemplify how dedication does not betray the effort invested. The development of infrastructure, like the hauling road and Wisma IMIP, alongside Nandar’s story, highlight growth and resilience. This story epitomizes the transformation of a remote area into an industrial hub. Morowali’s evolution signifies national progress and global market influence. It emphasizes the impact of visionary leadership and industry on growth and prosperity. Hard work betrays none, but dreams betray many…



Admin heyokha



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FY 2023 – The great eco-qualizer: Indonesia’s strategic initiatives steering global decarbonisation


FY 2023 – The great eco-qualizer: Indonesia’s strategic initiatives steering global decarbonisation

Published: Apr 11 2024

Dive into this special report and you’ll find yourself on an informative journey through Indonesia’s green ambitions. Indonesia is not just an archipelago of stunning landscapes but a rising star in the global decarbonization effort.


From the buzzing industrial hive of Morowali, where nickel is king, to the cutting-edge forays into renewable energy, this report is your ticket to understanding Indonesia’s eco-journey. It’s a story of how Indonesia, armed with strategic savvy and a treasure trove of critical minerals, is sprinting towards a future where electric vehicles (EVs) abound, powered by Indonesian nickel.


Amid complex interplay of global politics and economic aspirations, Indonesia stands firm, charting its own course towards a sustainable and electrified future. This is a story of innovation, strategic gambles, and green dreams, as Indonesia aims to prove that being eco-friendly isn’t just good for the planet—it’s a pathway to prosperity.

 



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Published: Apr 11 2024

Dive into this special report and you’ll find yourself on an informative journey through Indonesia’s green ambitions. Indonesia is not just an archipelago of stunning landscapes but a rising star in the global decarbonization effort.


From the buzzing industrial hive of Morowali, where nickel is king, to the cutting-edge forays into renewable energy, this report is your ticket to understanding Indonesia’s eco-journey. It’s a story of how Indonesia, armed with strategic savvy and a treasure trove of critical minerals, is sprinting towards a future where electric vehicles (EVs) abound, powered by Indonesian nickel.


Amid complex interplay of global politics and economic aspirations, Indonesia stands firm, charting its own course towards a sustainable and electrified future. This is a story of innovation, strategic gambles, and green dreams, as Indonesia aims to prove that being eco-friendly isn’t just good for the planet—it’s a pathway to prosperity.

 



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What’s the hottest commodity during this election?


What’s the hottest commodity during this election?

Published: Feb 14 2024

“I wanted to be a doctor, but my dad wants me to be a TikTok influencer”– the generation after Gen Z

Me back in 2020 at @pikbakinghouse store, trying to sell Hawaiian Papaya Ci Mehong Style.

In recent months, commodities like nickel, bauxite, and even seaweed have dominated headlines and filled the election debate, but one commodity stands out among the rest, and it’s not what you might expect: followers.

The realization hit home when President Joko Widodo began engaging influencers during the 2019 election. Suddenly, it became clear that social media followers were a valuable commodity, perhaps one of the most crucial in today’s digital age.

Fast forward to now, and the importance of followers has reached unprecedented heights. This trend is especially evident in the lead-up to the 2024 election, with many candidates incorporating follower count into their campaign strategies. Some are even going so far as to recruit celebrities and their spouses as legislative candidates, leveraging their massive social media followings.

What’s intriguing is how this trend extends to unexpected individuals, like my friend’s mom, Tjioe Nofia Handayani, affectionately known as Ci Mehong. Despite her seemingly niche market of selling high-end goods like geoduck and abalone, her years of dedication and countless social media posts have amassed her nearly 400,000 Instagram followers and over 420,000 on TikTok. For once, this might just be the best way to capitalize on the massive followers that she has.

This phenomenon has prompted some to reconsider traditional paths to influence and power. While I have other friends of which many have grown up in families entrenched in politics, the allure of social media influence may signal a new era in politics and beyond.

Interestingly, this shift in focus towards digital influence might explain why consumer industries, typically buoyed by election cycles, haven’t seen the expected boost. Instead, much of the campaign funds are likely being funneled into digital marketing and endorsements, capitalizing on the power of this new hot commodity.

So, perhaps the next time a member of Gen Z expresses aspirations to own a nickel or gold mine, they might consider the potential of becoming an influencer instead. After all, in this digital age, followers aren’t just numbers; they’re pure currency, paving the way to fame, fortune, and influence. It’s a whole new frontier where likes and shares hold more power than gold nuggets.

 

Danzel Aryo Soerjohadi

Investments at Heyokha Brother



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Published: Feb 14 2024

“I wanted to be a doctor, but my dad wants me to be a TikTok influencer”– the generation after Gen Z

Me back in 2020 at @pikbakinghouse store, trying to sell Hawaiian Papaya Ci Mehong Style.

In recent months, commodities like nickel, bauxite, and even seaweed have dominated headlines and filled the election debate, but one commodity stands out among the rest, and it’s not what you might expect: followers.

The realization hit home when President Joko Widodo began engaging influencers during the 2019 election. Suddenly, it became clear that social media followers were a valuable commodity, perhaps one of the most crucial in today’s digital age.

Fast forward to now, and the importance of followers has reached unprecedented heights. This trend is especially evident in the lead-up to the 2024 election, with many candidates incorporating follower count into their campaign strategies. Some are even going so far as to recruit celebrities and their spouses as legislative candidates, leveraging their massive social media followings.

What’s intriguing is how this trend extends to unexpected individuals, like my friend’s mom, Tjioe Nofia Handayani, affectionately known as Ci Mehong. Despite her seemingly niche market of selling high-end goods like geoduck and abalone, her years of dedication and countless social media posts have amassed her nearly 400,000 Instagram followers and over 420,000 on TikTok. For once, this might just be the best way to capitalize on the massive followers that she has.

This phenomenon has prompted some to reconsider traditional paths to influence and power. While I have other friends of which many have grown up in families entrenched in politics, the allure of social media influence may signal a new era in politics and beyond.

Interestingly, this shift in focus towards digital influence might explain why consumer industries, typically buoyed by election cycles, haven’t seen the expected boost. Instead, much of the campaign funds are likely being funneled into digital marketing and endorsements, capitalizing on the power of this new hot commodity.

So, perhaps the next time a member of Gen Z expresses aspirations to own a nickel or gold mine, they might consider the potential of becoming an influencer instead. After all, in this digital age, followers aren’t just numbers; they’re pure currency, paving the way to fame, fortune, and influence. It’s a whole new frontier where likes and shares hold more power than gold nuggets.

 

Danzel Aryo Soerjohadi

Investments at Heyokha Brother



Admin heyokha



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Inflation in The Afterlife


Inflation in The Afterlife

Published: Feb 13 2024

As an analyst, my days are filled with spreadsheets and data, a routine that ticks away relentlessly across 52 weeks of the year. But once annually, I step into a different role – The Fed… of the afterlife.

Or so my late-grandpa used to tell me. Every year I would gather around with my family, and we would celebrate Chinese New Year together. Aside from our family secret soup recipe (which I annually make, after the passing of my grandma), we also did some other things including “printing money”.

We would fold this yellowish broken white paper with silver rectangles in a certain way that it resembled a “boat” or “gold”. After hours of folding, we would then pray and burn these money, to “send it to heaven” for Mak Cho and Kong Cho, as he used to say. Now that he passed away, we are sending it to him and my grandma as well.

My grandpa, an enthusiast in economics used to pass down his vast knowledge in economics in the simplest way for young-Aryo to understand. One in particular that I remember on top of my head was:

“at times when life is hard, and there is war and crisis, hold into gold. You see, this paper money? You can rip it, this stock paper? You can rip it. But this gold? Stays.”

Surely an oversimplification of the complex economy, but his love for economics and business actually makes me interested in pursuing this career as well. His vast understanding about economics never cease to amaze me.

This used to be adult work; they would talk about business, economy, educations, Perkutut bird and Lo Han fish (yes, this was around two decades ago) while their hands would elegantly fold the papers, turning it into the desired shape. The kids? We would try to make some before giving up after 3 “monies” because it took us 5 minute to make one, with the “acceptance rate” of < 30% by the Chair of The Fed (read: my grandpa).

Now that I am an adult, with a printing prowess of 20 seconds per “money” and an acceptance rate of 95%, I’ve earned my place at the table alongside my brother and cousins. And with this newfound status comes the opportunity to contribute to our familial discussions—a privilege that prompts today’s question of the day:

“Wouldn’t Engkong appreciate receiving his ‘money’ stash 4-6 months ahead of Chinese New Year? If every family floods ‘heaven’ with these offerings simultaneously, wouldn’t it trigger some serious afterlife inflation? Perhaps next year, we should dispatch them earlier, allowing Engkong to dabble in the ALSX (After Life Stock Exchange) and rake in even more celestial riches!”



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Published: Feb 13 2024

As an analyst, my days are filled with spreadsheets and data, a routine that ticks away relentlessly across 52 weeks of the year. But once annually, I step into a different role – The Fed… of the afterlife.

Or so my late-grandpa used to tell me. Every year I would gather around with my family, and we would celebrate Chinese New Year together. Aside from our family secret soup recipe (which I annually make, after the passing of my grandma), we also did some other things including “printing money”.

We would fold this yellowish broken white paper with silver rectangles in a certain way that it resembled a “boat” or “gold”. After hours of folding, we would then pray and burn these money, to “send it to heaven” for Mak Cho and Kong Cho, as he used to say. Now that he passed away, we are sending it to him and my grandma as well.

My grandpa, an enthusiast in economics used to pass down his vast knowledge in economics in the simplest way for young-Aryo to understand. One in particular that I remember on top of my head was:

“at times when life is hard, and there is war and crisis, hold into gold. You see, this paper money? You can rip it, this stock paper? You can rip it. But this gold? Stays.”

Surely an oversimplification of the complex economy, but his love for economics and business actually makes me interested in pursuing this career as well. His vast understanding about economics never cease to amaze me.

This used to be adult work; they would talk about business, economy, educations, Perkutut bird and Lo Han fish (yes, this was around two decades ago) while their hands would elegantly fold the papers, turning it into the desired shape. The kids? We would try to make some before giving up after 3 “monies” because it took us 5 minute to make one, with the “acceptance rate” of < 30% by the Chair of The Fed (read: my grandpa).

Now that I am an adult, with a printing prowess of 20 seconds per “money” and an acceptance rate of 95%, I’ve earned my place at the table alongside my brother and cousins. And with this newfound status comes the opportunity to contribute to our familial discussions—a privilege that prompts today’s question of the day:

“Wouldn’t Engkong appreciate receiving his ‘money’ stash 4-6 months ahead of Chinese New Year? If every family floods ‘heaven’ with these offerings simultaneously, wouldn’t it trigger some serious afterlife inflation? Perhaps next year, we should dispatch them earlier, allowing Engkong to dabble in the ALSX (After Life Stock Exchange) and rake in even more celestial riches!”



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Listening to Our Conscience, Building Social Bridges


Listening to Our Conscience, Building Social Bridges

Published: Jan 19 2024

That day, I strolled along the main road of Cikini around Menteng. Jakarta’s weather was neither too hot nor rainy. It seemed as if the capital was in a good mood.

Quietly, I admired the colonial architecture still present in the Cikini area. The cafe’s interior and the sidewalk were only separated by a glass window. I began to imagine how Dutch ladies in that era would leisurely drink tea, sip coffee, and exchange gossip, without the rush of work or the immediacy of WA messages or emails demanding immediate responses. Honestly, in that moment, a feeling of jealousy emerged within me.

Engrossed in my own thoughts, out of nowhere, an old man approached and said:

“Sir, I’m actually embarrassed to say… I need a little bit of money to go home by train from Gondangdia station. But my wallet is completely empty, sir. Please help me get home.”

I sensed a tone of despair from the man when he showed me his tattered, empty wallet.

Perhaps due to my preoccupied mind, I automatically mustered a “Sorry, sir…”, assuming it was another one of those frauds in my beloved Jakarta.

As if he could read my mind, the slight look of desperation on the man’s face immediately turned into one of disappointment as he apologised, “I’m sorry for disturbing you, sir… I really am.”

Just like that, the man shook his head and walked away. It was hard to guess why the man shook his head. What was he feeling? Who knows?

About five minutes later, a wave of regret slowly washed over me. I felt something odd, something unusual. The man didn’t force me. In fact, he apologised. A single glance at his eyes confirmed that he was embarrassed to do so. Or maybe he’s a great actor. Who knows?

Stricken with confusion and regret, I turned around to look for the man. But he had disappeared, as if he were a ninja.

So I let out a sigh, turned around again, and continued my journey. However, this time, I didn’t gaze at the beautiful Dutch-styled window displays along Cikini road. The only thing I could picture was the man’s gloomy face, which continued to resurface in my mind. I kept asking myself, “What if the man really couldn’t come home?”

I should have followed my heart more often. Occasionally, I ought to try listening to my inner voice and extend a helping hand to those suffering like the man. However, in my case, it was far too late now.

At times, the fast-paced lifestyle of being a “Jakarta person” can numb our conscience, credited to our frequent experiences of deception and dishonesty. The fear of being taken advantage of often compels us to shut ourselves off from our inner voice. I found myself in a moment of silence, deeply contemplative. However, this time, it wasn’t about the Dutch ladies.

This time, my thoughts shifted to a culture that we face daily. In an organisation whose culture focuses on office politics and backstabbing, members would be busy “building gates” to fortify themselves. In this survival mode, our inner voice often gets ignored. But so what?

On the other hand, in an organisation where members genuinely care for each other and sincerely communicate with each other, we become part of the lives of fellow members of the organisation- in other words, a true community. We all yearn to be part of something greater than ourselves, feel safe and happy, and dare to be ourselves.

This courage to “be ourselves” comes down to the desire to build bridges instead of gates. It involves listening to the whispers of the heart that keep us from becoming overly cautious “Jakarta people”. These whispers from the heart make us willing to be attentive listeners, opening ourselves to the stories of our neighbours.

I try to remind myself that listening with genuine attention and appreciation is the key to good social relationships. It is the foundation for building social bridges—pathways that lead us to happiness, success, good health, and the many joys life has to offer.

Written by Wuddy Warsono, CFA



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Published: Jan 19 2024

That day, I strolled along the main road of Cikini around Menteng. Jakarta’s weather was neither too hot nor rainy. It seemed as if the capital was in a good mood.

Quietly, I admired the colonial architecture still present in the Cikini area. The cafe’s interior and the sidewalk were only separated by a glass window. I began to imagine how Dutch ladies in that era would leisurely drink tea, sip coffee, and exchange gossip, without the rush of work or the immediacy of WA messages or emails demanding immediate responses. Honestly, in that moment, a feeling of jealousy emerged within me.

Engrossed in my own thoughts, out of nowhere, an old man approached and said:

“Sir, I’m actually embarrassed to say… I need a little bit of money to go home by train from Gondangdia station. But my wallet is completely empty, sir. Please help me get home.”

I sensed a tone of despair from the man when he showed me his tattered, empty wallet.

Perhaps due to my preoccupied mind, I automatically mustered a “Sorry, sir…”, assuming it was another one of those frauds in my beloved Jakarta.

As if he could read my mind, the slight look of desperation on the man’s face immediately turned into one of disappointment as he apologised, “I’m sorry for disturbing you, sir… I really am.”

Just like that, the man shook his head and walked away. It was hard to guess why the man shook his head. What was he feeling? Who knows?

About five minutes later, a wave of regret slowly washed over me. I felt something odd, something unusual. The man didn’t force me. In fact, he apologised. A single glance at his eyes confirmed that he was embarrassed to do so. Or maybe he’s a great actor. Who knows?

Stricken with confusion and regret, I turned around to look for the man. But he had disappeared, as if he were a ninja.

So I let out a sigh, turned around again, and continued my journey. However, this time, I didn’t gaze at the beautiful Dutch-styled window displays along Cikini road. The only thing I could picture was the man’s gloomy face, which continued to resurface in my mind. I kept asking myself, “What if the man really couldn’t come home?”

I should have followed my heart more often. Occasionally, I ought to try listening to my inner voice and extend a helping hand to those suffering like the man. However, in my case, it was far too late now.

At times, the fast-paced lifestyle of being a “Jakarta person” can numb our conscience, credited to our frequent experiences of deception and dishonesty. The fear of being taken advantage of often compels us to shut ourselves off from our inner voice. I found myself in a moment of silence, deeply contemplative. However, this time, it wasn’t about the Dutch ladies.

This time, my thoughts shifted to a culture that we face daily. In an organisation whose culture focuses on office politics and backstabbing, members would be busy “building gates” to fortify themselves. In this survival mode, our inner voice often gets ignored. But so what?

On the other hand, in an organisation where members genuinely care for each other and sincerely communicate with each other, we become part of the lives of fellow members of the organisation- in other words, a true community. We all yearn to be part of something greater than ourselves, feel safe and happy, and dare to be ourselves.

This courage to “be ourselves” comes down to the desire to build bridges instead of gates. It involves listening to the whispers of the heart that keep us from becoming overly cautious “Jakarta people”. These whispers from the heart make us willing to be attentive listeners, opening ourselves to the stories of our neighbours.

I try to remind myself that listening with genuine attention and appreciation is the key to good social relationships. It is the foundation for building social bridges—pathways that lead us to happiness, success, good health, and the many joys life has to offer.

Written by Wuddy Warsono, CFA



Admin heyokha



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Scoring an Albatross Deal?


Scoring an Albatross Deal?

Published: Jan 15 2024

During the holiday season, I spent Christmas playing golf with my old man and my not so little brother—a tradition we cherished back in my high school and college days, though less frequent now. Our family used to gather for dinner daily, but with everyone caught up in weekday and weekend commitments, those moments have become rare. My brother, pursuing a law degree at Universitas Indonesia, has followed my footsteps into the realm of competitions, while I delved into equity research, he opts for moot court competitions, filling his days sometimes even to weekends.

The scorching sun failed to deter over 50 golfers from joining us on the course that day, with more than four flights ahead of us, slowing our pace. Surprisingly, this delay allowed us to engage in more conversations, a silver lining despite the temperature reaching 35 degrees. Exhausted as we appeared, our caddies, Lydia and Sari, kindly offered us a taste of the variety of food they had on hand—a mini-market on wheels. Jackfruits, rujak, batagor, siomay, iced tea, and more – a tempting array. I couldn’t help but think, “Ah, the impulsive spender,” wondering if they were avid Shopee or TikTok users.

Thus, began my inquiry into the eCommerce habits of our caddies on the 7th hole. Lydia and Sari, Shopee enthusiasts, favoured it primarily for ShopeePayLater, aiding them in managing their monthly cash flow. Interestingly, when it came to TikTokShop (TTS) and Shopee, they leaned towards TTS. Their rationale? Spending 4-5 hours daily on TikTok, they appreciated influencers seamlessly incorporating product details in their videos, creating an impulsive consumer experience. These purchases vary from cute dresses, kitchen equipment, beauty products (make up, micellar water, eyelash and brow pencils), even food and snacks.

The financing aspect emerged as a significant factor. They revealed that paying in bulk at the end of the month suited them. Spending around IDR 1-2 million monthly, which accounted for a substantial portion of their assumed monthly income of IDR 6-8 million,  made up 10-30% of their earnings. When asked about credit cards, Lydia and Sari found the idea daunting, fearing hidden fees. According to Sari, the fees for their current Paylater service were minimal (which is probably not the case, as it accounts for 5-10% of loan taken). Interestingly, Paylater limit amount also acted as a status symbol – When Sari said that her Shopee Paylater limit was IDR 12 million, Lydia proudly stated  her IDR 17 million limit, emphasising her timely payments.

Curiosity led me to ask, “Are you eagerly awaiting a Paylater option for TikTok?” Their response was a resounding “Of course!” They believed it could be a game changer – a no brainer reason to change to TTS.

Wow I thought. Imagine potentially prompting a massive migration of Shopee and Lazada users to TTS. The prospect of doubling GMV to USD 12 billion suddenly seemed conservative. Perhaps GOTO had struck gold with this collaboration, I mused.

While I pondered these eCommerce dynamics, my dad achieved something equally remarkable – a Birdie! We are mere 20-30 handicap golfers, this is a big deal for us. Distracted momentarily, I returned my focus to the game.

But really, the GOTO and TikTok partnership was probably akin to an Albatross or, at the very least, an Eagle .

 

Danzel Aryo Soerjohadi

Investments at Heyokha Brothers



Admin heyokha



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Published: Jan 15 2024

During the holiday season, I spent Christmas playing golf with my old man and my not so little brother—a tradition we cherished back in my high school and college days, though less frequent now. Our family used to gather for dinner daily, but with everyone caught up in weekday and weekend commitments, those moments have become rare. My brother, pursuing a law degree at Universitas Indonesia, has followed my footsteps into the realm of competitions, while I delved into equity research, he opts for moot court competitions, filling his days sometimes even to weekends.

The scorching sun failed to deter over 50 golfers from joining us on the course that day, with more than four flights ahead of us, slowing our pace. Surprisingly, this delay allowed us to engage in more conversations, a silver lining despite the temperature reaching 35 degrees. Exhausted as we appeared, our caddies, Lydia and Sari, kindly offered us a taste of the variety of food they had on hand—a mini-market on wheels. Jackfruits, rujak, batagor, siomay, iced tea, and more – a tempting array. I couldn’t help but think, “Ah, the impulsive spender,” wondering if they were avid Shopee or TikTok users.

Thus, began my inquiry into the eCommerce habits of our caddies on the 7th hole. Lydia and Sari, Shopee enthusiasts, favoured it primarily for ShopeePayLater, aiding them in managing their monthly cash flow. Interestingly, when it came to TikTokShop (TTS) and Shopee, they leaned towards TTS. Their rationale? Spending 4-5 hours daily on TikTok, they appreciated influencers seamlessly incorporating product details in their videos, creating an impulsive consumer experience. These purchases vary from cute dresses, kitchen equipment, beauty products (make up, micellar water, eyelash and brow pencils), even food and snacks.

The financing aspect emerged as a significant factor. They revealed that paying in bulk at the end of the month suited them. Spending around IDR 1-2 million monthly, which accounted for a substantial portion of their assumed monthly income of IDR 6-8 million,  made up 10-30% of their earnings. When asked about credit cards, Lydia and Sari found the idea daunting, fearing hidden fees. According to Sari, the fees for their current Paylater service were minimal (which is probably not the case, as it accounts for 5-10% of loan taken). Interestingly, Paylater limit amount also acted as a status symbol – When Sari said that her Shopee Paylater limit was IDR 12 million, Lydia proudly stated  her IDR 17 million limit, emphasising her timely payments.

Curiosity led me to ask, “Are you eagerly awaiting a Paylater option for TikTok?” Their response was a resounding “Of course!” They believed it could be a game changer – a no brainer reason to change to TTS.

Wow I thought. Imagine potentially prompting a massive migration of Shopee and Lazada users to TTS. The prospect of doubling GMV to USD 12 billion suddenly seemed conservative. Perhaps GOTO had struck gold with this collaboration, I mused.

While I pondered these eCommerce dynamics, my dad achieved something equally remarkable – a Birdie! We are mere 20-30 handicap golfers, this is a big deal for us. Distracted momentarily, I returned my focus to the game.

But really, the GOTO and TikTok partnership was probably akin to an Albatross or, at the very least, an Eagle .

 

Danzel Aryo Soerjohadi

Investments at Heyokha Brothers



Admin heyokha



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When is the sunset most colourful?


When is the sunset most colourful?

Published: Jan 05 2024

When is the sunset most colourful? After a normal day with some clouds, the hottest day with scorching hot sun, or after a heavy storm by the beach the whole day?

I enjoyed my time in Bali reading a lot of books, some on investing, philosophy, and longevity. Slow times like this I like. In the fast-moving investment world, slow thinking is rare. At Heyokha, we take this very seriously. Speeding through at 100km/h to the wrong direction would just make things worse. We took one week to rethink our investment strategy, philosophy, and operations, to come back stronger than ever. 

One of the ideas that resonated with me as I sip my pina colada, reading The Most Important Thing by Howard Marks is that the highest return is made after the crisis. Howard Marks was notorious for investing USD 600mn per day for 10 days straight during the 2008 crisis, which made him one of the most profitable investments over his career. Superior investors are contrarians, second level thinkers, immutable by emotions – theirs and the markets, yet flexible thinkers. To invest during and after a crisis, when the outlook seems bleak or chaotic even usually turns out to provide the best return for investors. 

On my last day, Bali was hit with a heavy storm throughout the day. Just when the rain slowed down, I took a quick run to the beach while my friends and most of the population stayed tuck under their comfortable blanket cursing at the storm. I arrived just in time to see the most magnificent hues of yellow, orange, pink, and purple in the sky. As I sat down by the beach, I thought: Indeed, the most colourful sunset is right after a chaotic storm, my biggest return of the trip.

 

Danzel Aryo Soerjohadi

Investments at Heyokha Brothers



Admin heyokha



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Published: Jan 05 2024

When is the sunset most colourful? After a normal day with some clouds, the hottest day with scorching hot sun, or after a heavy storm by the beach the whole day?

I enjoyed my time in Bali reading a lot of books, some on investing, philosophy, and longevity. Slow times like this I like. In the fast-moving investment world, slow thinking is rare. At Heyokha, we take this very seriously. Speeding through at 100km/h to the wrong direction would just make things worse. We took one week to rethink our investment strategy, philosophy, and operations, to come back stronger than ever. 

One of the ideas that resonated with me as I sip my pina colada, reading The Most Important Thing by Howard Marks is that the highest return is made after the crisis. Howard Marks was notorious for investing USD 600mn per day for 10 days straight during the 2008 crisis, which made him one of the most profitable investments over his career. Superior investors are contrarians, second level thinkers, immutable by emotions – theirs and the markets, yet flexible thinkers. To invest during and after a crisis, when the outlook seems bleak or chaotic even usually turns out to provide the best return for investors. 

On my last day, Bali was hit with a heavy storm throughout the day. Just when the rain slowed down, I took a quick run to the beach while my friends and most of the population stayed tuck under their comfortable blanket cursing at the storm. I arrived just in time to see the most magnificent hues of yellow, orange, pink, and purple in the sky. As I sat down by the beach, I thought: Indeed, the most colourful sunset is right after a chaotic storm, my biggest return of the trip.

 

Danzel Aryo Soerjohadi

Investments at Heyokha Brothers



Admin heyokha



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Is AI Making Us Smarter or Dumber?


Is AI Making Us Smarter or Dumber?

Published: Feb 10 2023

“Is artificial intelligence making us dumber?” This is a question that has been on many people’s minds as generative AI continues to grow in popularity. With its applications in fields such as music, art, and healthcare, AI is poised to change the world in exciting ways. But there are also concerns about its impact on human intelligence and critical thinking.

One of the primary concerns is that relying solely on AI-generated content could reduce opportunities for developing original ideas. For example, if individuals solely rely on AI-generated news articles for information, they may not be exposed to diverse perspectives and may have limited opportunities for critical thinking and independent analysis. Similarly, if artists solely use AI to generate their works, they may not be challenged to come up with original ideas and may become less creative over time.

 

On the other hand, proponents of generative AI argue that it has the potential to enhance human intelligence and drive innovation. To get a better understanding of this perspective, we sat down with Dr. Sarah Kim, a computer scientist and researcher at the MIT Media Lab. According to Dr. Kim, “AI has the ability to process massive amounts of data at speeds that are not possible for humans, leading to more informed decisions and new avenues for creativity.” She goes on to say, “AI-generated content can also serve as a starting point for human artists, inspiring them to create something truly unique.”

In conclusion, the use of generative AI presents both potential risks and benefits. It is up to us to ensure that this technology is used in a way that promotes the advancement of humanity while avoiding negative impacts on human intelligence and critical thinking. Whether AI makes us dumber or not ultimately depends on how we choose to use it.

ChatGPT, the generative AI model created by OpenAI, has caught our attention lately, and probably yours too. The tool has taken the internet by storm since its public launch for its ability to generate text that is coherent and appears to be written by a human. Our curiosity piqued, we just had to try it out for ourselves and see the extent of its capabilities. And guess what? This very article that you have just read was generated by ChatGPT (with our inputs).

We began the process by asking ChatGPT one question: “tell me two reasons why generative AI makes us dumber and two counterarguments”. Getting answers from ChatGPT is straightforward and easy but getting the answers in a desired format and style is less so. But with a little trial and error, we were able to get some pretty impressive results. It is important that describe your requests as detailed as possible to generate the answer you wanted. For example, we asked ChatGPT to suggest a clickbait title for us, we also asked it to add a short interview with a computer scientist to support the counterargument, especially with credentials and a professional name to make it convincing. However, we did notice that with multiple requests, the tool could forget some of your previous requests. So, would it make us dumber? It depends, depending on how you use the tool, I think the above article made a sound argument.

However, a more threatening concern that we wanted to highlight through this experience is how generative AI can create false but convincing information or ideas that can influence one’s beliefs and opinions. For instance, the computer scientist and researcher at the MIT Media Lab, Dr Sarah Kim, “we” interviewed does not exist, it is merely an identity invented by ChatGPT upon our request. Similarly for the image, it was created by DALL-E, the text-to-image model developed by Open-AI, with a text description suggested by ChatGPT so that we could create an image of Dr Sarah Kim that fits the context of the article. If misused, the spread of misinformation and false narratives can lead to dangerous consequences such as political propaganda and manipulation.

Surely the tool still has its limitations and biases, but overall, we are very impressed and amazed by its ability to take requests and return valuable outputs almost instantly. But while generative AI can bring many benefits, it’s important to keep in mind its potential negative implications and to always utilize the tool responsibly.

We end this blog with a rap song written by ChatGPT.

Verse 1:
Generative AI’s the latest buzz,
ChatGPT’s what everyone does.
A tool so smart and oh so fast,
Gives us answers that’ll last.
But is this technology so great,
Or will it lead to our cognitive fate?

Verse 2:
We tried it out, we put it to the test,
To see what answers it could suggest.
With a detailed description, it delivered,
Results that left us quite a shiver.
But beware, it’s not all sunshine,
Misuse can lead to false narratives, refine.

Outro:
Surely the tool still has its flaws,
But overall, we’re in awe.
Generative AI, it’s a thrill,
Just use it responsibly and all will be still.



Admin heyokha



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Published: Feb 10 2023

“Is artificial intelligence making us dumber?” This is a question that has been on many people’s minds as generative AI continues to grow in popularity. With its applications in fields such as music, art, and healthcare, AI is poised to change the world in exciting ways. But there are also concerns about its impact on human intelligence and critical thinking.

One of the primary concerns is that relying solely on AI-generated content could reduce opportunities for developing original ideas. For example, if individuals solely rely on AI-generated news articles for information, they may not be exposed to diverse perspectives and may have limited opportunities for critical thinking and independent analysis. Similarly, if artists solely use AI to generate their works, they may not be challenged to come up with original ideas and may become less creative over time.

 

On the other hand, proponents of generative AI argue that it has the potential to enhance human intelligence and drive innovation. To get a better understanding of this perspective, we sat down with Dr. Sarah Kim, a computer scientist and researcher at the MIT Media Lab. According to Dr. Kim, “AI has the ability to process massive amounts of data at speeds that are not possible for humans, leading to more informed decisions and new avenues for creativity.” She goes on to say, “AI-generated content can also serve as a starting point for human artists, inspiring them to create something truly unique.”

In conclusion, the use of generative AI presents both potential risks and benefits. It is up to us to ensure that this technology is used in a way that promotes the advancement of humanity while avoiding negative impacts on human intelligence and critical thinking. Whether AI makes us dumber or not ultimately depends on how we choose to use it.

ChatGPT, the generative AI model created by OpenAI, has caught our attention lately, and probably yours too. The tool has taken the internet by storm since its public launch for its ability to generate text that is coherent and appears to be written by a human. Our curiosity piqued, we just had to try it out for ourselves and see the extent of its capabilities. And guess what? This very article that you have just read was generated by ChatGPT (with our inputs).

We began the process by asking ChatGPT one question: “tell me two reasons why generative AI makes us dumber and two counterarguments”. Getting answers from ChatGPT is straightforward and easy but getting the answers in a desired format and style is less so. But with a little trial and error, we were able to get some pretty impressive results. It is important that describe your requests as detailed as possible to generate the answer you wanted. For example, we asked ChatGPT to suggest a clickbait title for us, we also asked it to add a short interview with a computer scientist to support the counterargument, especially with credentials and a professional name to make it convincing. However, we did notice that with multiple requests, the tool could forget some of your previous requests. So, would it make us dumber? It depends, depending on how you use the tool, I think the above article made a sound argument.

However, a more threatening concern that we wanted to highlight through this experience is how generative AI can create false but convincing information or ideas that can influence one’s beliefs and opinions. For instance, the computer scientist and researcher at the MIT Media Lab, Dr Sarah Kim, “we” interviewed does not exist, it is merely an identity invented by ChatGPT upon our request. Similarly for the image, it was created by DALL-E, the text-to-image model developed by Open-AI, with a text description suggested by ChatGPT so that we could create an image of Dr Sarah Kim that fits the context of the article. If misused, the spread of misinformation and false narratives can lead to dangerous consequences such as political propaganda and manipulation.

Surely the tool still has its limitations and biases, but overall, we are very impressed and amazed by its ability to take requests and return valuable outputs almost instantly. But while generative AI can bring many benefits, it’s important to keep in mind its potential negative implications and to always utilize the tool responsibly.

We end this blog with a rap song written by ChatGPT.

Verse 1:
Generative AI’s the latest buzz,
ChatGPT’s what everyone does.
A tool so smart and oh so fast,
Gives us answers that’ll last.
But is this technology so great,
Or will it lead to our cognitive fate?

Verse 2:
We tried it out, we put it to the test,
To see what answers it could suggest.
With a detailed description, it delivered,
Results that left us quite a shiver.
But beware, it’s not all sunshine,
Misuse can lead to false narratives, refine.

Outro:
Surely the tool still has its flaws,
But overall, we’re in awe.
Generative AI, it’s a thrill,
Just use it responsibly and all will be still.



Admin heyokha



Share



FTX: An Unbalanced Sheet


FTX: An Unbalanced Sheet

Published: Nov 18 2022

Last week may mark the worst week in history to date in the crypto industry. The downfall of FTX, which was considered as one of the biggest and most reputable players in the market, has stunned all crypto owners.

What was discovered?

Concerns for FTX’s liquidity spurred after the release of CoinDesk’s investigation on the close ties and blurred financials between FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried’s (SBF) trading firm, Alameda Research. It was revealed that Alameda Research held a position worth over $5 billion in FTT, the native token of FTX. It owned $3.66 billion of “unlocked FTT” and $2.16 billion of FTT collateral, combined making the biggest single asset held on its balance sheet. The report revealed that Alameda’s investment foundation was also in FTT, rather than an independent asset like a fiat currency or another crypto token.

An excel file FTX shared with prospective investors before the bankruptcy, providing a detailed picture of the financial hole in the FTX crypto empire.Source: Financial Times

On Nov 6, Binance, the world’s biggest crypto exchange, announced that it would sell its entire position in FTT tokens, worth over $500 million at the time. Unsurprisingly, FTX experienced a bank run following the announcement with customers demanding $6 billion of withdrawals. The value of FTT fell by 80% in two days.

Binance gave a short-lived promise of rescue on Nov 8 after corporate due diligence prompted concerns about the mishandling of customer funds. Having lent more than half of its customer funds to Alameda, it is reported that FTX has a shortfall of US$8 billion on its balance sheet.

A major failed experiment?

Some may say that this fallout has destroyed all confidence and set the industry back again in the eyes of regulators and institutional investors. To us, the cause of the meltdown is simple, those who have been in the financial industry will know, asset-liability mismatch, period.

The clear lack of corporate governance has contributed to the non-existence of risk management at FTX. As reported by the Wall Street Journal, Ryan Salame, co-chief executive of FTX Digital Markets, and Ryne Miller, general counsel of FTX’s U.S. arm, alongside other FTX employees, had no knowledge of FTX’s problems until exposed by the media, despite worked closely with SBF. The lack of transparency and seemingly concentrated control in the founders’ hands are disconcerting.Source: The Information

World frustrated

FTX suffered a $400 million hack which occurred on the same day the firm filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. The internet was flooded with speculations that the hack could have been coordinated by insiders. The attacker appears to have “had access to all the cold wallet storages which he exploited,” Dyma Budorin, co-founder and chief executive of blockchain security auditing firm Hacken, said on Monday in an interview with CoinDesk TV.

Some of the wallets are labeled “fucksbf” and “fuckftxandsbf.eth”, which could be a reverse optics to appear as if it is a hack.

More pain to come

Similar to the Luna fiasco, we would expect a domino effect from the fall of FTX given the number of businesses in the ecosystem that are linked to the exchange. Genesis Global Capital has become the latest fallout from the FTX meltdown, reflecting a sign of contagion outside of BlockcFi, which is reportedly preparing for a potential bankruptcy filing.

Credit: Kyle Kim/Bloomberg

What to trust going forward?

Although it’s an extremely painful lesson to learn, individuals will now understand the importance of being their only owner of one’s digital assets. Crypto users are rushing to take control of their digital assets in the wake of the exchange’s collapse.  This will be better off for the market as a whole in the long run, to achieve the holy grail of decentralization, rather than being dependent on the notoriously centralized exchanges.

Indeed, there is evidence that crypto owners are increasingly moving to hardware crypto wallets. A major hardware wallet provider, Trezor, has recorded a major uptick in wallet sales in the aftermath of the FTX contagion. According to Josef Tetek, the firms’s brand ambassador Josef Tetek told Cointelegraph on 15 Nov, Trezor saw its sales revenue surged 300% week-on-week and it’s still growing.

And despite sell-offs, decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms have been functioning smoothly and experiencing a double digit increase in the number of users in the past week. According to data share by Nansen to The Defiant, MakerDao, DeFi’s largest protocol with $6.5 billion of total value locked, has increased addresses by a third in the last week. And other top 10 protocols have also attracted huge jumps in users, with Aave notching a 70% increase, and a 63% spike for Curve.

Regulations are clearly needed for CeFi

The crypto community continues to learn the lesson of decentralization the hard way in the previous months. From Celsius Network to BlockFi, Voyager Digital, and now FTX, and probably more casualties to come, these are all centralized exchanges and financial platforms (CeFi). Similar to the situation of the 2008 falls of some of the largest American banks, we witnessed the consequence when market players under-collateralize and take risks with consumer funds. The only difference this time is that there is no government backing in the CeFi world, the CeFi companies are left to play out by themselves.

The collapse of FTX will spur more calls and urgency for crypto regulations. Both CFTC and SEC are experts in regulating the financial markets. What the regulators have essentially been trying to do is to replicate the regulatory framework for the traditional financial (TradFi) market to the crypto market, at least for CeFi, which would be challenging. The Federal Reserve took six years to create after the 1907 Wall Street panic, so it will not be surprising if it takes few years to come up with the regulations for CeFi.

The flaw in CeFi is that the reliance on trust that Satoshi Nakamoto was trying to avoid has been reintroduced. The collapse of FTX once again reminds us of the importance of decentralization. DeFi platforms are designed to preserve transparency and self-sovereign custody of assets. Regulations that do not overprotect those with an upper hand could be beneficial for the industry. Although unclear with the approach yet, we believe the crux of regulating decentralized projects would be to regulate on a protocol level rather than on an entity level. Nonetheless, the ultimate solution remains to leave governance in the hands of consensus mechanisms.

The meltdown of FTX was a failure of CeFi, not DeFi. If there is a silver lining for the FTX meltdown, it would be to redraw the ecosystem’s focus on its original purpose of decentralization, reaching consensus on who owns what cryptographically across nodes rather than relying on a central source of trust.

 

 

 

Reference

Divisions in Sam Bankman-Fried’s Crypto Empire Blur on His Trading Titan Alameda’s Balance Sheet. CoinDesk.

CZ Strives to Show Binance is Different From FTX. The Defiant.

FTX Tapped Into Customer Accounts to Fund Risky Bets, Setting Up Its Downfall. The Wall Street Journal.

FTX’s Collapse Leaves Employees Sick With Anger. The Wall Street Journal

Trezor reports 300% surge in sales revenue due to FTX contagion. Cointelegraph

FTX balance sheet, revealed. Financial Times

FTX Hack or Inside Job? Blockchain Experts Examine Clues and a ‘Stupid Mistake’. CoinDesk

FTX’s New Boss Reveals Chaos Left Behind by Bankman-Fried. Bloomberg



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Published: Nov 18 2022

Last week may mark the worst week in history to date in the crypto industry. The downfall of FTX, which was considered as one of the biggest and most reputable players in the market, has stunned all crypto owners.

What was discovered?

Concerns for FTX’s liquidity spurred after the release of CoinDesk’s investigation on the close ties and blurred financials between FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried’s (SBF) trading firm, Alameda Research. It was revealed that Alameda Research held a position worth over $5 billion in FTT, the native token of FTX. It owned $3.66 billion of “unlocked FTT” and $2.16 billion of FTT collateral, combined making the biggest single asset held on its balance sheet. The report revealed that Alameda’s investment foundation was also in FTT, rather than an independent asset like a fiat currency or another crypto token.

An excel file FTX shared with prospective investors before the bankruptcy, providing a detailed picture of the financial hole in the FTX crypto empire.Source: Financial Times

On Nov 6, Binance, the world’s biggest crypto exchange, announced that it would sell its entire position in FTT tokens, worth over $500 million at the time. Unsurprisingly, FTX experienced a bank run following the announcement with customers demanding $6 billion of withdrawals. The value of FTT fell by 80% in two days.

Binance gave a short-lived promise of rescue on Nov 8 after corporate due diligence prompted concerns about the mishandling of customer funds. Having lent more than half of its customer funds to Alameda, it is reported that FTX has a shortfall of US$8 billion on its balance sheet.

A major failed experiment?

Some may say that this fallout has destroyed all confidence and set the industry back again in the eyes of regulators and institutional investors. To us, the cause of the meltdown is simple, those who have been in the financial industry will know, asset-liability mismatch, period.

The clear lack of corporate governance has contributed to the non-existence of risk management at FTX. As reported by the Wall Street Journal, Ryan Salame, co-chief executive of FTX Digital Markets, and Ryne Miller, general counsel of FTX’s U.S. arm, alongside other FTX employees, had no knowledge of FTX’s problems until exposed by the media, despite worked closely with SBF. The lack of transparency and seemingly concentrated control in the founders’ hands are disconcerting.Source: The Information

World frustrated

FTX suffered a $400 million hack which occurred on the same day the firm filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. The internet was flooded with speculations that the hack could have been coordinated by insiders. The attacker appears to have “had access to all the cold wallet storages which he exploited,” Dyma Budorin, co-founder and chief executive of blockchain security auditing firm Hacken, said on Monday in an interview with CoinDesk TV.

Some of the wallets are labeled “fucksbf” and “fuckftxandsbf.eth”, which could be a reverse optics to appear as if it is a hack.

More pain to come

Similar to the Luna fiasco, we would expect a domino effect from the fall of FTX given the number of businesses in the ecosystem that are linked to the exchange. Genesis Global Capital has become the latest fallout from the FTX meltdown, reflecting a sign of contagion outside of BlockcFi, which is reportedly preparing for a potential bankruptcy filing.

Credit: Kyle Kim/Bloomberg

What to trust going forward?

Although it’s an extremely painful lesson to learn, individuals will now understand the importance of being their only owner of one’s digital assets. Crypto users are rushing to take control of their digital assets in the wake of the exchange’s collapse.  This will be better off for the market as a whole in the long run, to achieve the holy grail of decentralization, rather than being dependent on the notoriously centralized exchanges.

Indeed, there is evidence that crypto owners are increasingly moving to hardware crypto wallets. A major hardware wallet provider, Trezor, has recorded a major uptick in wallet sales in the aftermath of the FTX contagion. According to Josef Tetek, the firms’s brand ambassador Josef Tetek told Cointelegraph on 15 Nov, Trezor saw its sales revenue surged 300% week-on-week and it’s still growing.

And despite sell-offs, decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms have been functioning smoothly and experiencing a double digit increase in the number of users in the past week. According to data share by Nansen to The Defiant, MakerDao, DeFi’s largest protocol with $6.5 billion of total value locked, has increased addresses by a third in the last week. And other top 10 protocols have also attracted huge jumps in users, with Aave notching a 70% increase, and a 63% spike for Curve.

Regulations are clearly needed for CeFi

The crypto community continues to learn the lesson of decentralization the hard way in the previous months. From Celsius Network to BlockFi, Voyager Digital, and now FTX, and probably more casualties to come, these are all centralized exchanges and financial platforms (CeFi). Similar to the situation of the 2008 falls of some of the largest American banks, we witnessed the consequence when market players under-collateralize and take risks with consumer funds. The only difference this time is that there is no government backing in the CeFi world, the CeFi companies are left to play out by themselves.

The collapse of FTX will spur more calls and urgency for crypto regulations. Both CFTC and SEC are experts in regulating the financial markets. What the regulators have essentially been trying to do is to replicate the regulatory framework for the traditional financial (TradFi) market to the crypto market, at least for CeFi, which would be challenging. The Federal Reserve took six years to create after the 1907 Wall Street panic, so it will not be surprising if it takes few years to come up with the regulations for CeFi.

The flaw in CeFi is that the reliance on trust that Satoshi Nakamoto was trying to avoid has been reintroduced. The collapse of FTX once again reminds us of the importance of decentralization. DeFi platforms are designed to preserve transparency and self-sovereign custody of assets. Regulations that do not overprotect those with an upper hand could be beneficial for the industry. Although unclear with the approach yet, we believe the crux of regulating decentralized projects would be to regulate on a protocol level rather than on an entity level. Nonetheless, the ultimate solution remains to leave governance in the hands of consensus mechanisms.

The meltdown of FTX was a failure of CeFi, not DeFi. If there is a silver lining for the FTX meltdown, it would be to redraw the ecosystem’s focus on its original purpose of decentralization, reaching consensus on who owns what cryptographically across nodes rather than relying on a central source of trust.

 

 

 

Reference

Divisions in Sam Bankman-Fried’s Crypto Empire Blur on His Trading Titan Alameda’s Balance Sheet. CoinDesk.

CZ Strives to Show Binance is Different From FTX. The Defiant.

FTX Tapped Into Customer Accounts to Fund Risky Bets, Setting Up Its Downfall. The Wall Street Journal.

FTX’s Collapse Leaves Employees Sick With Anger. The Wall Street Journal

Trezor reports 300% surge in sales revenue due to FTX contagion. Cointelegraph

FTX balance sheet, revealed. Financial Times

FTX Hack or Inside Job? Blockchain Experts Examine Clues and a ‘Stupid Mistake’. CoinDesk

FTX’s New Boss Reveals Chaos Left Behind by Bankman-Fried. Bloomberg



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The end of the decade of plenty?


The end of the decade of plenty?

Published: Nov 09 2022

The disturbing almanack

In the past, that is not too distant was a decade of abundance, peace, and order. Food, energy, resources, and capital were plenty and affordable if not cheap by today’s standards. Today, we have the exact reverse.

Six months ago, we wrote about the rising food security risk globally (link). Since then, food prices have cooled down in the wake of recessionary fears driven by the global central bank tightening cycle. The FAO food price index has fallen by 14.7% in USD terms from its peak in April 2022.

The question: is the food security risk now no longer a concern?

Anecdotal evidence of the rising popularity of food-protectionism measures would suggest the contrary. In 2H2022, Malaysia banned chicken export, India restricted the export of rice, and recently Mexico halted 24 key food exports.

Furthermore, the recent surge of the US dollar actually has worsened the food security risk for many countries. At the same time whereby the FAO food price index fell by 14.7 percent from its March 2022 peak, the dollar index rose by 21.5 percent. This means that most countries experienced a 3.65 percent higher food prices. It was no relief.

Furthermore, we still identify three major supply-side overhangs for food security: (1) the high possibility of a third consecutive La Nina; (2) escalation of political risk in Europe; (3) gas-crisis-driven fertiliser cost.

While the almanack that we provide might feel disturbing if not stomach-churning, we think that the mounting pressures of food security could signify the value of food technology. A vertical that has perhaps been taken for granted in the decades of plenty. Ironically, it is also the sector that allows humanity to thrive and defy the infamous Malthusian catastrophic prophecy.

Malthusian prophecy and its 180-degree reality

Students of economics would have been familiar with the Malthusian Trap. The 18th-century British philosopher and economist Thomas Malthus was well-known by the history book for his grim prediction in 1798. Malthus argued that food production will not be able to keep up with the growth of human populations. As a result, disease, famine, war, and calamity are seen as humanity’s inescapable fate.

Proponents of this school of thought might resort to an extreme solution to this problem like extreme population control. This reminds us of Thanos, the villain of the Marvel Universe, and his conquest to wipe out one-half of the universe’s population to maintain prosperity and peace in the galaxy.

Fortunately, the reality has fared better than the doomsday prediction. Humanity has prevailed and continued to expand the frontiers of welfare. For instance, Our World in Data showed that life expectancy has more than doubled from 29 years old in the 1800s to 71 years old in 2015. At the same time, the global population went up sevenfold from about 1 billion to 8 billion in 2022.

Moreover, data from the 1820s to 2015 suggests that the poverty eradication curve is getting steeper rather than flatten. The share of the global population that lives in poverty plunged from over 94 percent in 1820 to 9.6% percent in 2015.

These are signs that indicate the world’s productivity has exceeded the growth of the population. What went different from Malthus’ view?

The uncounted factors that matter: the man-made miracles

Robert Malthus’ theory of growth lacks respect for the fundamental reality of technological progress. This is implied by assuming that food production would only be growing at an arithmetic progression. In reality, innovation and technology have pushed the boundaries and changed the course of history. Especially in the front of productivity.

Three foundational food production technologies allow the humanities to dodge the Malthusian trap:

1. Fertilizers

One of the cornerstones of modern food production lies in ammonia which contains nitrogen and hydrogen. Nitrogen is one of the most important crop nutrients, a secret sauce of yield improvement. Ammonia can effectively bind nitrogen to be applied directly on crops or to be processed further for fertilisers like urea, DAP, and NPK.

The advent of haber-bosch process in 1908 allowed the synthetic production of ammonia. ­It is a game-changer and worthy to hold the title of one of the greatest inventions of the 20th century. Erisman et al. (2012) estimated that the existence of nitrogen fertilisers have helped to feed 48 percent of the global population in 2008. In today’s number, that is equal to 3.8 billion people.

Back in March 2022 blog (link), we discussed ammonia as the main feedstock of fertiliser was caught in a perfect storm of geopolitical conflict, energy crisis, tight agricultural market, and supply chain constraint.

So far, we see a minimum disentanglement of these factors. As such, that might keep ammonia prices at elevated heights for a long time. Note that fertiliser crisis could cause a decline in the harvest that will worsen the global food stock.

2. Seeds technology

Source: Heyokha Research, USGS, Goldman Research

You reap what you saw. Seeds technology plays a vital role in fulfilling global food needs mainly through variants of better vigour and productivity.

In the case of the US, seed technologies have played an enormous role in jacking up the corn yield from merely 2 tons per hectare to 12 tons per hectare, a six-fold increase. This is a perfect showcase of what 160 years’ worth of long and continuous research effort could bring, defying the Malthusian trap.

In that regard of such immense research effort and multi-billion research budget, we perceive seeds technology businesses to be something secular whose profits are beyond justifiable for society. Their business enhances the economics of farming and helps feed the world in the process.

The advent of gene editing technologies (CRISPR) and super-computer could expand the frontier of seed technology in form of genetic modified organism (GMO) and genetic-edited (GE) seeds. Recent article from Financial Times (link) reported that gene-editing using CRISPR technology could cut product development cycle (variety development including regulatory approval) from 16.5 years to 5 years and research budget from $115 mn to $ 10.5 mn per product. Compared to GMO, gene editing using CRISPR is more precision in terms of adding or cutting the gene. Nevertheless, the technology mastery is still limited to a few and still in due process for more regulatory acceptance. Genetic-edited crop is the new unexplored frontier.

3. Crop protection

Besides fertilizers, the development of chemicals in crop protection has also contributed to feeding the world. For instance, pesticides could improve crop quality and increase crop yield by 30 percent on average (Bromilow, 2005). Pesticides are not something new, it has been widely used since the last 1940s.

Unfortunately, most crop protection products also require petrochemical-based feedstock. This suggests that a severe and prolonged energy crisis could adversely impact global food security by affecting the affordability and availability of fertilisers and crop protection chemicals. From that point, a vicious cycle in global food security could emerge from the subsequent decline in crop yields.

A difficult but hopeful journey ahead

It has been an adage of the investment world to invest in the pain points. Crop solution companies are essentially the direct solution to the looming food security risk. These companies range from fertilisers, seeds technology, and crop protection chemicals.

Given the R&D barrier of the business and the deeper pockets of the farmers, crop solution companies would be one of the few businesses that can thrive in this era of inflation. Crop solution companies’ pricing power is bound to rise in times like this. It is pretty obvious since crop solution products are the must-have ingredients for farmers to extract the risk premium and the cure to the crisis itself.

Although the short-term outlook might be difficult, the long story of humanity would suggest that this is a beginning of a hopeful tomorrow. Today’s market risk premium unveils the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead of us. It’s been years since capital was substantially directed toward resources, the bedrock of civilization. We believe persistent commodities’ risk premiums will redirect the capital into sectors that become the seeds of the next decade of plenty.

 

Bibliography

Bromillow. (2005). Pesticides. Encyclopedia of Soils in the Environment, Vol. 3, Elsevier, 188-195.

Ritchie, Hannah;. (2017, November 07). How many people does synthetic fertilizer feed? Retrieved from Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/how-many-people-does-synthetic-fertilizer-feed



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Published: Nov 09 2022

The disturbing almanack

In the past, that is not too distant was a decade of abundance, peace, and order. Food, energy, resources, and capital were plenty and affordable if not cheap by today’s standards. Today, we have the exact reverse.

Six months ago, we wrote about the rising food security risk globally (link). Since then, food prices have cooled down in the wake of recessionary fears driven by the global central bank tightening cycle. The FAO food price index has fallen by 14.7% in USD terms from its peak in April 2022.

The question: is the food security risk now no longer a concern?

Anecdotal evidence of the rising popularity of food-protectionism measures would suggest the contrary. In 2H2022, Malaysia banned chicken export, India restricted the export of rice, and recently Mexico halted 24 key food exports.

Furthermore, the recent surge of the US dollar actually has worsened the food security risk for many countries. At the same time whereby the FAO food price index fell by 14.7 percent from its March 2022 peak, the dollar index rose by 21.5 percent. This means that most countries experienced a 3.65 percent higher food prices. It was no relief.

Furthermore, we still identify three major supply-side overhangs for food security: (1) the high possibility of a third consecutive La Nina; (2) escalation of political risk in Europe; (3) gas-crisis-driven fertiliser cost.

While the almanack that we provide might feel disturbing if not stomach-churning, we think that the mounting pressures of food security could signify the value of food technology. A vertical that has perhaps been taken for granted in the decades of plenty. Ironically, it is also the sector that allows humanity to thrive and defy the infamous Malthusian catastrophic prophecy.

Malthusian prophecy and its 180-degree reality

Students of economics would have been familiar with the Malthusian Trap. The 18th-century British philosopher and economist Thomas Malthus was well-known by the history book for his grim prediction in 1798. Malthus argued that food production will not be able to keep up with the growth of human populations. As a result, disease, famine, war, and calamity are seen as humanity’s inescapable fate.

Proponents of this school of thought might resort to an extreme solution to this problem like extreme population control. This reminds us of Thanos, the villain of the Marvel Universe, and his conquest to wipe out one-half of the universe’s population to maintain prosperity and peace in the galaxy.

Fortunately, the reality has fared better than the doomsday prediction. Humanity has prevailed and continued to expand the frontiers of welfare. For instance, Our World in Data showed that life expectancy has more than doubled from 29 years old in the 1800s to 71 years old in 2015. At the same time, the global population went up sevenfold from about 1 billion to 8 billion in 2022.

Moreover, data from the 1820s to 2015 suggests that the poverty eradication curve is getting steeper rather than flatten. The share of the global population that lives in poverty plunged from over 94 percent in 1820 to 9.6% percent in 2015.

These are signs that indicate the world’s productivity has exceeded the growth of the population. What went different from Malthus’ view?

The uncounted factors that matter: the man-made miracles

Robert Malthus’ theory of growth lacks respect for the fundamental reality of technological progress. This is implied by assuming that food production would only be growing at an arithmetic progression. In reality, innovation and technology have pushed the boundaries and changed the course of history. Especially in the front of productivity.

Three foundational food production technologies allow the humanities to dodge the Malthusian trap:

1. Fertilizers

One of the cornerstones of modern food production lies in ammonia which contains nitrogen and hydrogen. Nitrogen is one of the most important crop nutrients, a secret sauce of yield improvement. Ammonia can effectively bind nitrogen to be applied directly on crops or to be processed further for fertilisers like urea, DAP, and NPK.

The advent of haber-bosch process in 1908 allowed the synthetic production of ammonia. ­It is a game-changer and worthy to hold the title of one of the greatest inventions of the 20th century. Erisman et al. (2012) estimated that the existence of nitrogen fertilisers have helped to feed 48 percent of the global population in 2008. In today’s number, that is equal to 3.8 billion people.

Back in March 2022 blog (link), we discussed ammonia as the main feedstock of fertiliser was caught in a perfect storm of geopolitical conflict, energy crisis, tight agricultural market, and supply chain constraint.

So far, we see a minimum disentanglement of these factors. As such, that might keep ammonia prices at elevated heights for a long time. Note that fertiliser crisis could cause a decline in the harvest that will worsen the global food stock.

2. Seeds technology

Source: Heyokha Research, USGS, Goldman Research

You reap what you saw. Seeds technology plays a vital role in fulfilling global food needs mainly through variants of better vigour and productivity.

In the case of the US, seed technologies have played an enormous role in jacking up the corn yield from merely 2 tons per hectare to 12 tons per hectare, a six-fold increase. This is a perfect showcase of what 160 years’ worth of long and continuous research effort could bring, defying the Malthusian trap.

In that regard of such immense research effort and multi-billion research budget, we perceive seeds technology businesses to be something secular whose profits are beyond justifiable for society. Their business enhances the economics of farming and helps feed the world in the process.

The advent of gene editing technologies (CRISPR) and super-computer could expand the frontier of seed technology in form of genetic modified organism (GMO) and genetic-edited (GE) seeds. Recent article from Financial Times (link) reported that gene-editing using CRISPR technology could cut product development cycle (variety development including regulatory approval) from 16.5 years to 5 years and research budget from $115 mn to $ 10.5 mn per product. Compared to GMO, gene editing using CRISPR is more precision in terms of adding or cutting the gene. Nevertheless, the technology mastery is still limited to a few and still in due process for more regulatory acceptance. Genetic-edited crop is the new unexplored frontier.

3. Crop protection

Besides fertilizers, the development of chemicals in crop protection has also contributed to feeding the world. For instance, pesticides could improve crop quality and increase crop yield by 30 percent on average (Bromilow, 2005). Pesticides are not something new, it has been widely used since the last 1940s.

Unfortunately, most crop protection products also require petrochemical-based feedstock. This suggests that a severe and prolonged energy crisis could adversely impact global food security by affecting the affordability and availability of fertilisers and crop protection chemicals. From that point, a vicious cycle in global food security could emerge from the subsequent decline in crop yields.

A difficult but hopeful journey ahead

It has been an adage of the investment world to invest in the pain points. Crop solution companies are essentially the direct solution to the looming food security risk. These companies range from fertilisers, seeds technology, and crop protection chemicals.

Given the R&D barrier of the business and the deeper pockets of the farmers, crop solution companies would be one of the few businesses that can thrive in this era of inflation. Crop solution companies’ pricing power is bound to rise in times like this. It is pretty obvious since crop solution products are the must-have ingredients for farmers to extract the risk premium and the cure to the crisis itself.

Although the short-term outlook might be difficult, the long story of humanity would suggest that this is a beginning of a hopeful tomorrow. Today’s market risk premium unveils the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead of us. It’s been years since capital was substantially directed toward resources, the bedrock of civilization. We believe persistent commodities’ risk premiums will redirect the capital into sectors that become the seeds of the next decade of plenty.

 

Bibliography

Bromillow. (2005). Pesticides. Encyclopedia of Soils in the Environment, Vol. 3, Elsevier, 188-195.

Ritchie, Hannah;. (2017, November 07). How many people does synthetic fertilizer feed? Retrieved from Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/how-many-people-does-synthetic-fertilizer-feed



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  • Comply with applicable laws or legal processes.
  • Investigate and prevent illegal activity, fraud, or violations of terms and conditions.
  • Protect and defend legal rights or defend against legal claims.
  • Facilitate business or asset transactions, such as financing, mergers, acquisitions, or bankruptcy.
  • With our related parties (e.g.: administrators) that are subject to appropriate data protection obligations
  • Representatives, agents or custodians appointed by the client (e.g.: Auditors, accountant)

Retention of Personal Information:

Disclosure, correction and termination of usage shall be carried out upon request of an individual in accordance with relevant laws and regulations.

Personal information collected will be retained for no longer than is necessary for the fulfilment of the purposes for which it was collected as per applicable laws and regulations.

Rights of the Individual:

Under relevant laws and regulations, any individual has the right to request access to any of the personal data that we hold by submitting a written request. Individuals are also entitled to request to correct, cancel or delete any of the personal data we hold if they believe such information is inaccurate, out of date or we no longer have a legitimate interest or lawful justification to retain or process.

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Disclaimer

Heyokha Brothers Limited is the issuer of this website and holds Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 9 (asset management) licenses issued by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong.

The information provided on this website has been prepared solely for licensed intermediaries and qualified investors in Hong Kong, including professional investors, institutional investors, and accredited investors (as defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance). The information provided on this website is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, nor an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, investment product, or service.

Investment involves risk and investors may lose their entire investment. Investors are advised to seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future performance and the value of investments may fluctuate. Please refer to the offering document(s) for
details, including the investment objectives, risk factors, and fees and charges.

Heyokha Brothers Limited reserves the right to amend, update, or remove any information on this website at any time without notice. By accessing and using this website, you agree to be bound by the above terms and conditions.

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We drive our mission with an exceptional culture through applying a growth mindset where holistic and on the ground research is at our core.

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