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We are what we believe we are

Source: Amazon

After decades of research, Stanford University psychologist, Carol Dweck discovered a simple but ground-breaking idea: the power of mindset.

In her classic book “Mindset: The New Psychology of Success”, she showed how success can be dramatically influenced by how we think about our talents and abilities.

Dweck summarised, “Individuals who believe their talents can be developed (through hard work, good strategies, and input from others) have a growth mindset. They tend to achieve more than those with a more fixed mindset, i.e., those who believe their talents are innate gifts. This is because they worry less about looking smart and they put more energy into learning.

According to Dweck, believing that your qualities are carved in stone — fixed mindset — creates an urgency to prove yourself over and over. The fixed mindset makes you concerned with how you will be judged; the growth mindset makes you concerned with improving.

The good news is that we can change our mindset.

For example, a study in the United States showed that a short (less than one hour!), online growth mindset course improved grades among lower-achieving high school students (Yeager, D.S., Hanselman, P., Walton, G.M. et al., 2019). This is great because having a growth mindset can also improve investment success.

Growth mindset unlocks investment success

Adopting a growth mindset can improve our lives in many aspects, such as becoming better partners in a relationship, better parents, better managers and of course, better investors.

We found there are at least three reasons why growth mindset is an important concept for investors:

Improve our stock pickingcompanies with growth-mindset leadership perform better. Thus, recognising such leadership in companies can improve our stock-picking game and improve our investment outcomes.

For instance, a five-year study by Jim Collins in 2001 suggests that the stock returns of companies run by growth-mindset leaders were more likely to rise than those of rival companies.

Improve our forecasting skills research has revealed that the best forecasters have growth mindset. For instance, in the book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction”, the authors conclude from analysing forecasting tournaments that the strongest predictor of becoming an exceptional forecaster is the degree to which one is committed to belief-updating and self-improvement.

Improve our team’s decisions – when our own (analyst) team operates in growth mindset, forecasting performance will improve dramatically.  For instance, in Superforecasting, it was found that the so called “superteams” do well by avoiding the extremes of groupthink and by fostering mini cultures that encouraged people to challenge each other respectfully, admit ignorance, and request help.

Adopting a growth mindset is especially important for us at our organization. Such mindset guides us in how we should change, how we should look at new areas and finetune our investment strategy.

You don’t get growth mindset by proclamation. You move toward it by taking a journey.

In the wake of Dweck’s findings and the success of her book, “growth mindset” has become a buzzword among educators and business leaders, even working its way into mission statements.

However, after publishing her book, Dweck discovered that people often confuse growth mindset with being flexible or open-minded or having a positive outlook — qualities they believe they’ve simply always had.

She calls this a ‘false growth mindset’. The point is that your “process” needs to be tied to learning and progress. It’s also false in the sense that nobody has a growth mindset in everything all the time.

Dweck clarifies that everyone is a mixture of fixed and growth mindsets: sometimes we’re in a growth mindset, and sometimes we’re triggered into a fixed mindset by what we perceive as threats.

These can be challenges, mistakes, failures, or criticisms that threaten our sense of our abilities. As such, a “pure” growth mindset doesn’t exist; it is a lifelong journey. Below is the summary of the journey that Dweck proposes.

The journey to a (true) growth mindset:

1. Embrace our fixed mindset – We need to acknowledge that we are a mixture of both mindsets. Even though we have to accept that some fixed mindset dwells within us, we do not have to accept how often it shows up, and how much havoc it can wreak when it does.

2. Become aware of our fixed-mindset triggers – Understand in what situations your fixed-mindset “persona” makes its appearance. As we come to understand our triggers and get to know our persona, don’t judge it. Just observe it.

3. Give our fixed-mindset persona a name. Yes, a name. Perhaps we might give it a name we don’t like, to remind us that the persona is not the person we want to be.

4. Educate our fixed-mindset persona. The more we become aware of our fixed-mindset triggers, the more we can be on the lookout for the arrival of our persona. Don’t suppress it or ban it. Just let it do its thing. When it settles down a bit, talk to it about how we plan to learn from the setback and go forward. Take it on the journey with us.

We feel that Dweck’s emphasis on the journey, instead of solely on the outcome, is a key point.

The more we learn the more we earn

Knowing the advantage of growth mindset could spark our lives, the choice to implement it is now in our hands. Anyone can develop a growth mindset and get ahead in their lives or fields of work. It is simply a treasure that everyone can possess through a perpetual journey. By applying growth mindset in investing, there are more opportunities we can seize and more vicissitudes we can evade.

“I constantly see people rise in life who are not the smartest, sometimes not even the most diligent, but they are learning machines.” – Charlie Munger

References:

Dweck, C. S. (2006). Mindset: The new psychology of success. New York: Random House.

Yeager, D.S., Hanselman, P., Walton, G.M. et al. A national experiment reveals where a growth mindset improves achievement. Nature 573, 364–369 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1466-y




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We are what we believe we are

Source: Amazon

After decades of research, Stanford University psychologist, Carol Dweck discovered a simple but ground-breaking idea: the power of mindset.

In her classic book “Mindset: The New Psychology of Success”, she showed how success can be dramatically influenced by how we think about our talents and abilities.

Dweck summarised, “Individuals who believe their talents can be developed (through hard work, good strategies, and input from others) have a growth mindset. They tend to achieve more than those with a more fixed mindset, i.e., those who believe their talents are innate gifts. This is because they worry less about looking smart and they put more energy into learning.

According to Dweck, believing that your qualities are carved in stone — fixed mindset — creates an urgency to prove yourself over and over. The fixed mindset makes you concerned with how you will be judged; the growth mindset makes you concerned with improving.

The good news is that we can change our mindset.

For example, a study in the United States showed that a short (less than one hour!), online growth mindset course improved grades among lower-achieving high school students (Yeager, D.S., Hanselman, P., Walton, G.M. et al., 2019). This is great because having a growth mindset can also improve investment success.

Growth mindset unlocks investment success

Adopting a growth mindset can improve our lives in many aspects, such as becoming better partners in a relationship, better parents, better managers and of course, better investors.

We found there are at least three reasons why growth mindset is an important concept for investors:

Improve our stock pickingcompanies with growth-mindset leadership perform better. Thus, recognising such leadership in companies can improve our stock-picking game and improve our investment outcomes.

For instance, a five-year study by Jim Collins in 2001 suggests that the stock returns of companies run by growth-mindset leaders were more likely to rise than those of rival companies.

Improve our forecasting skills research has revealed that the best forecasters have growth mindset. For instance, in the book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction”, the authors conclude from analysing forecasting tournaments that the strongest predictor of becoming an exceptional forecaster is the degree to which one is committed to belief-updating and self-improvement.

Improve our team’s decisions – when our own (analyst) team operates in growth mindset, forecasting performance will improve dramatically.  For instance, in Superforecasting, it was found that the so called “superteams” do well by avoiding the extremes of groupthink and by fostering mini cultures that encouraged people to challenge each other respectfully, admit ignorance, and request help.

Adopting a growth mindset is especially important for us at our organization. Such mindset guides us in how we should change, how we should look at new areas and finetune our investment strategy.

You don’t get growth mindset by proclamation. You move toward it by taking a journey.

In the wake of Dweck’s findings and the success of her book, “growth mindset” has become a buzzword among educators and business leaders, even working its way into mission statements.

However, after publishing her book, Dweck discovered that people often confuse growth mindset with being flexible or open-minded or having a positive outlook — qualities they believe they’ve simply always had.

She calls this a ‘false growth mindset’. The point is that your “process” needs to be tied to learning and progress. It’s also false in the sense that nobody has a growth mindset in everything all the time.

Dweck clarifies that everyone is a mixture of fixed and growth mindsets: sometimes we’re in a growth mindset, and sometimes we’re triggered into a fixed mindset by what we perceive as threats.

These can be challenges, mistakes, failures, or criticisms that threaten our sense of our abilities. As such, a “pure” growth mindset doesn’t exist; it is a lifelong journey. Below is the summary of the journey that Dweck proposes.

The journey to a (true) growth mindset:

1. Embrace our fixed mindset – We need to acknowledge that we are a mixture of both mindsets. Even though we have to accept that some fixed mindset dwells within us, we do not have to accept how often it shows up, and how much havoc it can wreak when it does.

2. Become aware of our fixed-mindset triggers – Understand in what situations your fixed-mindset “persona” makes its appearance. As we come to understand our triggers and get to know our persona, don’t judge it. Just observe it.

3. Give our fixed-mindset persona a name. Yes, a name. Perhaps we might give it a name we don’t like, to remind us that the persona is not the person we want to be.

4. Educate our fixed-mindset persona. The more we become aware of our fixed-mindset triggers, the more we can be on the lookout for the arrival of our persona. Don’t suppress it or ban it. Just let it do its thing. When it settles down a bit, talk to it about how we plan to learn from the setback and go forward. Take it on the journey with us.

We feel that Dweck’s emphasis on the journey, instead of solely on the outcome, is a key point.

The more we learn the more we earn

Knowing the advantage of growth mindset could spark our lives, the choice to implement it is now in our hands. Anyone can develop a growth mindset and get ahead in their lives or fields of work. It is simply a treasure that everyone can possess through a perpetual journey. By applying growth mindset in investing, there are more opportunities we can seize and more vicissitudes we can evade.

“I constantly see people rise in life who are not the smartest, sometimes not even the most diligent, but they are learning machines.” – Charlie Munger

References:

Dweck, C. S. (2006). Mindset: The new psychology of success. New York: Random House.

Yeager, D.S., Hanselman, P., Walton, G.M. et al. A national experiment reveals where a growth mindset improves achievement. Nature 573, 364–369 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1466-y




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Tech entrepreneurship has led to a winner-takes-it-all game, centralising wealth and power

Big Tech is wealthier than many nations
Source: Guardian

The digitalisation of the 3Cs: Communication, Content, and Commerce has been the dominating force shaping the new ecosystem (new economy) for the last two decades and has also led to a concentration of power and wealth. This centralisation trend has led to an oligopolistic market with distant market leadership. Most market share will be owned by the leader with a significant gap to even the 2nd biggest player. Tech entrepreneurship trends have led to winner-takes-all game.

Case in point: According to eMarketer (2020), Amazon’s market share in the U.S. e-commerce retail sales was 38.7%, followed by Walmart at 5.3%. The four biggest players combined control 52.4% of the whole market.

 

 

The winners are getting stronger every day by gaining access to more data, enjoying network effects, and accessing financial resources through their generous market valuation. The tech leaders also enjoy exceptional free cash flows, adding to their moats.

Legislators and ex-insiders are now attempting to break the Big Tech as they see threats lurking

Storms are brewing over tech companies

 

 

Abundant access to data, financial resources, and the ability to manipulate public opinion have instilled fear that tech firms would soon be more powerful than governments. Consequently, governments and ex-tech insiders have started to fight the Big Tech.

 

 

The three biggest issues that are being addressed are:

1.Anti-trust: More power and market share accumulated by the winners leave no room for other competitors.

2.Data privacy: Data tapping is everywhere and monetised for profit.

3.Tax: Leveraging their borderless presence, many firms exploit tax loopholes, creating an unfair advantage.

In addition of legal moves by governments and ex-tech insiders, the new tech forefronts have decentralisation attributes embedded to their framework, which is a solution of today’s problem.

Blockchain and edge computing emerge as a substitute ecosystem for the existing centralised system

In a centralised system, users depend on an authority to give a ‘blessing’ for transactions. This authority is almighty to dictate behaviour, set rules and regulations, and monitor our actions. Blockchain and edge computing emerge as enabling technologies who act as the foundation of a decentralised system.

Blockchain technology is an enabler of permissionless transactions by using a distributed ledger system where everyone in the network shares the database simultaneously. The data being shared through the network is represented by a ‘token’. Its core value proposition consists of user privacy, reliable records, and frictionless low-cost transactions.

Meanwhile, edge computing provides decentralised data processing by computing near the users. Its core value proposition are composed of: 1.) User’s absolute consent of data – Only relevant data need to be shared with the central network and  2) Faster computing – Lower latency due to closer proximity to the user instead of relying to a centralised system.

The wide adoption of blockchain technology and edge computing could imply that the Big Tech would be fed less data. Certain AI-optimized and machine learning programs could be adversely impacted by such trend.

With accelerating digitalisation and the rising prominence of decentralised network technology, decentralisation and democratisation will be the next forefront of tech for the coming decades

The rising efforts to curtail Big Tech’s power and the increasing prominence of decentralised network technology could reverse the centralisation trend. Therefore, we believe that in the upcoming decades, the innovation trends will shift from the digitalisation of the 3Cs towards the 3Ds. The 3Ds can be shortly explained as follows:

1.Digitalisation acceleration due to COVID-19 will be the background in the new normal.

2.Decentralisation will occur as blockchain and edge-computing emerge as a substitute for the current centralised system. Blockchain is going to be the backbone for decentralised finance. Meanwhile, edge computing will be the key for decentralised internet networks.

3. Democratisation is going to be the consequence of decentralisation. Also, accelerating decentralisation will cap the power of authority and distribute the power back to the users.

Investors should be more agile and have an open mindset

The era of high-velocity creative destruction provides opportunities and threats to investor’s wealth. In order to be able to grasp the emerging opportunities and avoid the vicissitudes (i.e- taking the wrong side in the game), today’s investors are required to be more open-minded and be on one’s guard. A life-changing investment opportunity might arise by surfing the tide of future winners since its early days.

“If you realize that all things change, there is nothing you will try to hold on to. If you are not afraid of dying, there is nothing you cannot achieve.” – Lao Tzu




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Tech entrepreneurship has led to a winner-takes-it-all game, centralising wealth and power

Big Tech is wealthier than many nations
Source: Guardian

The digitalisation of the 3Cs: Communication, Content, and Commerce has been the dominating force shaping the new ecosystem (new economy) for the last two decades and has also led to a concentration of power and wealth. This centralisation trend has led to an oligopolistic market with distant market leadership. Most market share will be owned by the leader with a significant gap to even the 2nd biggest player. Tech entrepreneurship trends have led to winner-takes-all game.

Case in point: According to eMarketer (2020), Amazon’s market share in the U.S. e-commerce retail sales was 38.7%, followed by Walmart at 5.3%. The four biggest players combined control 52.4% of the whole market.

 

 

The winners are getting stronger every day by gaining access to more data, enjoying network effects, and accessing financial resources through their generous market valuation. The tech leaders also enjoy exceptional free cash flows, adding to their moats.

Legislators and ex-insiders are now attempting to break the Big Tech as they see threats lurking

Storms are brewing over tech companies

 

 

Abundant access to data, financial resources, and the ability to manipulate public opinion have instilled fear that tech firms would soon be more powerful than governments. Consequently, governments and ex-tech insiders have started to fight the Big Tech.

 

 

The three biggest issues that are being addressed are:

1.Anti-trust: More power and market share accumulated by the winners leave no room for other competitors.

2.Data privacy: Data tapping is everywhere and monetised for profit.

3.Tax: Leveraging their borderless presence, many firms exploit tax loopholes, creating an unfair advantage.

In addition of legal moves by governments and ex-tech insiders, the new tech forefronts have decentralisation attributes embedded to their framework, which is a solution of today’s problem.

Blockchain and edge computing emerge as a substitute ecosystem for the existing centralised system

In a centralised system, users depend on an authority to give a ‘blessing’ for transactions. This authority is almighty to dictate behaviour, set rules and regulations, and monitor our actions. Blockchain and edge computing emerge as enabling technologies who act as the foundation of a decentralised system.

Blockchain technology is an enabler of permissionless transactions by using a distributed ledger system where everyone in the network shares the database simultaneously. The data being shared through the network is represented by a ‘token’. Its core value proposition consists of user privacy, reliable records, and frictionless low-cost transactions.

Meanwhile, edge computing provides decentralised data processing by computing near the users. Its core value proposition are composed of: 1.) User’s absolute consent of data – Only relevant data need to be shared with the central network and  2) Faster computing – Lower latency due to closer proximity to the user instead of relying to a centralised system.

The wide adoption of blockchain technology and edge computing could imply that the Big Tech would be fed less data. Certain AI-optimized and machine learning programs could be adversely impacted by such trend.

With accelerating digitalisation and the rising prominence of decentralised network technology, decentralisation and democratisation will be the next forefront of tech for the coming decades

The rising efforts to curtail Big Tech’s power and the increasing prominence of decentralised network technology could reverse the centralisation trend. Therefore, we believe that in the upcoming decades, the innovation trends will shift from the digitalisation of the 3Cs towards the 3Ds. The 3Ds can be shortly explained as follows:

1.Digitalisation acceleration due to COVID-19 will be the background in the new normal.

2.Decentralisation will occur as blockchain and edge-computing emerge as a substitute for the current centralised system. Blockchain is going to be the backbone for decentralised finance. Meanwhile, edge computing will be the key for decentralised internet networks.

3. Democratisation is going to be the consequence of decentralisation. Also, accelerating decentralisation will cap the power of authority and distribute the power back to the users.

Investors should be more agile and have an open mindset

The era of high-velocity creative destruction provides opportunities and threats to investor’s wealth. In order to be able to grasp the emerging opportunities and avoid the vicissitudes (i.e- taking the wrong side in the game), today’s investors are required to be more open-minded and be on one’s guard. A life-changing investment opportunity might arise by surfing the tide of future winners since its early days.

“If you realize that all things change, there is nothing you will try to hold on to. If you are not afraid of dying, there is nothing you cannot achieve.” – Lao Tzu




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Millennials sucker-punching hedge funds, cryptocurrency becoming a “safe haven”, and tech driving decentralisation: these developments would have sounded like science fiction only a year ago. In this report, we (try) approach these and other new trends with an open mind to see if they call for a change in conviction and action. But not after revisiting the concept of “growth mindset”, which we believe is key for investment success.




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Millennials sucker-punching hedge funds, cryptocurrency becoming a “safe haven”, and tech driving decentralisation: these developments would have sounded like science fiction only a year ago. In this report, we (try) approach these and other new trends with an open mind to see if they call for a change in conviction and action. But not after revisiting the concept of “growth mindset”, which we believe is key for investment success.




Admin heyokha




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This report covers the uneven impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and how it forces governments to tackle increasing poverty and inequality. In the U.S, the fiscal response is pretty similar to the 1930s New Deal in terms of relief and colossal infrastructure spending to accelerate economic recovery. With other countries also boosting their fiscal spending, the pandemic has become a catalyst for a global surge in infrastructure construction. We ponder how the New-Deal inspired policies will be rolled out and what the possible investment implications are.




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This report covers the uneven impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and how it forces governments to tackle increasing poverty and inequality. In the U.S, the fiscal response is pretty similar to the 1930s New Deal in terms of relief and colossal infrastructure spending to accelerate economic recovery. With other countries also boosting their fiscal spending, the pandemic has become a catalyst for a global surge in infrastructure construction. We ponder how the New-Deal inspired policies will be rolled out and what the possible investment implications are.




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To obtain guidance in these tumultuous times, we study past inflationary periods and economic downturns in this report and identify possible investment implications. We also focus on how precious metals investments, both the commodity and equity, performed during such periods.




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To obtain guidance in these tumultuous times, we study past inflationary periods and economic downturns in this report and identify possible investment implications. We also focus on how precious metals investments, both the commodity and equity, performed during such periods.




Admin heyokha




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As we find ourselves at a critical juncture, where economic and political systems can be overturned, we turned to nature  for inspiration and learned what “species” of investors are most likely to thrive in this rapidly changing environment.

Lessons from nature

From: Essentials of Ecology, 5e, G. Tyler Millers and Scott E. Spoolman. (Brooks/Cole)

Scientists use the niches (pattern of living) of species to classify them broadly as generalists or specialists.

Generalist species have broad niches. They can live in many different places, eat a variety of foods, and often tolerate a wide range of environmental conditions. For example, mice, rats, and raccoons are generalist species. In contrast, specialist species occupy narrow niches. They may be able to live in only one type of habitat, use one or a few types of food, or tolerate a narrow range of climatic and other environmental conditions. This makes specialists more prone to extinction when environmental conditions change.

For example, tiger salamanders breed only in fishless ponds where their larvae will not be eaten. China’s giant panda is highly endangered because of a combination of habitat loss, low birth rate, and its specialised diet consisting mostly of bamboo.

Is it better to be a generalist or a specialist? It depends. When environmental conditions are fairly constant, as in a tropical rain forest, specialists have an advantage because they have fewer competitors. However, under rapidly changing environmental conditions, the generalist usually is better off than the specialist.

Kung Fu Panda vs. Rocket Raccoon
Double trouble: not only does Kung Fu panda Po belong to a specialist species at the brink of extinction, he is also a fanatic follower of a closed-minded martial art doctrine. Rocket Raccoon on the other hand is a fine example of a generalist survivor. The message? Don’t be like Po…
Source: Kapanlagi.com, Greenscene.co.id

How to invest? Diversify while maintaining flexibility
Just as generalist species are better able to adapt to sudden changes in their environment due to their diversified diet, we figure that generalist investors with a diversified investment diet should also be better positioned to adapt and thrive in the current socio-economic climate – as compared to their specialised counterparts.

For us, this means that diversification is now more important than ever. Second key success factor – in our opinion – is flexibility. The flexibility to move “habitats”, i.e., update your investment strategy if it is no longer working.




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As we find ourselves at a critical juncture, where economic and political systems can be overturned, we turned to nature  for inspiration and learned what “species” of investors are most likely to thrive in this rapidly changing environment.

Lessons from nature

From: Essentials of Ecology, 5e, G. Tyler Millers and Scott E. Spoolman. (Brooks/Cole)

Scientists use the niches (pattern of living) of species to classify them broadly as generalists or specialists.

Generalist species have broad niches. They can live in many different places, eat a variety of foods, and often tolerate a wide range of environmental conditions. For example, mice, rats, and raccoons are generalist species. In contrast, specialist species occupy narrow niches. They may be able to live in only one type of habitat, use one or a few types of food, or tolerate a narrow range of climatic and other environmental conditions. This makes specialists more prone to extinction when environmental conditions change.

For example, tiger salamanders breed only in fishless ponds where their larvae will not be eaten. China’s giant panda is highly endangered because of a combination of habitat loss, low birth rate, and its specialised diet consisting mostly of bamboo.

Is it better to be a generalist or a specialist? It depends. When environmental conditions are fairly constant, as in a tropical rain forest, specialists have an advantage because they have fewer competitors. However, under rapidly changing environmental conditions, the generalist usually is better off than the specialist.

Kung Fu Panda vs. Rocket Raccoon
Double trouble: not only does Kung Fu panda Po belong to a specialist species at the brink of extinction, he is also a fanatic follower of a closed-minded martial art doctrine. Rocket Raccoon on the other hand is a fine example of a generalist survivor. The message? Don’t be like Po…
Source: Kapanlagi.com, Greenscene.co.id

How to invest? Diversify while maintaining flexibility
Just as generalist species are better able to adapt to sudden changes in their environment due to their diversified diet, we figure that generalist investors with a diversified investment diet should also be better positioned to adapt and thrive in the current socio-economic climate – as compared to their specialised counterparts.

For us, this means that diversification is now more important than ever. Second key success factor – in our opinion – is flexibility. The flexibility to move “habitats”, i.e., update your investment strategy if it is no longer working.




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What makes a better forecaster of future events? Well, if somebody can answer that question, it is Professor Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania.
Tetlock co-created The Good Judgement Project (GJP) which participated in a forecasting tournament held by IARPA, a U.S. government organisation.
IARPA supports research that has the potential to revolutionise intelligence analysis. The GJP won the tournament and its forecasters were 30% better than intelligence officers with access to classified info.
In his book “Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction”, he describes the portrait and methods of those top forecasters.
Besides concluding that foresight is real, Tetlock found that the key to forecasting is not what we think, but how we think:
  • Foresight demands thinking that is open-minded, careful, curious, and—above all—self-critical;
  • Good forecasters show a high degree of active open-mindedness, meaning that they are not merely open to reasons why a favoured possibility might be wrong but also actively look for them;
  • The strongest predictor of rising into the ranks of forecasters is the degree to which one is committed to belief updating and self-improvement.
Factors most associated with foresight
  • Belief updating
  • Intelligence
  • Knowledge
  • Deliberation time
  • Actively open minded
  • Teams
  • Training
Interestingly, Tetlock also noted in an earlier study that “subject matter expertise does not give a big boost to performance” and that “we reach the point of diminishing marginal predictive returns for knowledge disconcertingly quickly”. Investors can improve their forecasting skills by being actively open-minded and committed to self-improvement.



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What makes a better forecaster of future events? Well, if somebody can answer that question, it is Professor Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania.
Tetlock co-created The Good Judgement Project (GJP) which participated in a forecasting tournament held by IARPA, a U.S. government organisation.
IARPA supports research that has the potential to revolutionise intelligence analysis. The GJP won the tournament and its forecasters were 30% better than intelligence officers with access to classified info.
In his book “Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction”, he describes the portrait and methods of those top forecasters.
Besides concluding that foresight is real, Tetlock found that the key to forecasting is not what we think, but how we think:
  • Foresight demands thinking that is open-minded, careful, curious, and—above all—self-critical;
  • Good forecasters show a high degree of active open-mindedness, meaning that they are not merely open to reasons why a favoured possibility might be wrong but also actively look for them;
  • The strongest predictor of rising into the ranks of forecasters is the degree to which one is committed to belief updating and self-improvement.
Factors most associated with foresight
  • Belief updating
  • Intelligence
  • Knowledge
  • Deliberation time
  • Actively open minded
  • Teams
  • Training
Interestingly, Tetlock also noted in an earlier study that “subject matter expertise does not give a big boost to performance” and that “we reach the point of diminishing marginal predictive returns for knowledge disconcertingly quickly”. Investors can improve their forecasting skills by being actively open-minded and committed to self-improvement.



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In light of the outbreak of Covid-19, we turned to disaster research and learned that larger crises and disasters can be threshold events leading to meaningful change. To help our readers, we share how investors can be resilient in these stressful times. We also identify the COVID-19 pandemic induced accelerating adoption of modern monetary theory, which we feel could lead to high inflation. Finally, we make case for investing in gold during these times.




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In light of the outbreak of Covid-19, we turned to disaster research and learned that larger crises and disasters can be threshold events leading to meaningful change. To help our readers, we share how investors can be resilient in these stressful times. We also identify the COVID-19 pandemic induced accelerating adoption of modern monetary theory, which we feel could lead to high inflation. Finally, we make case for investing in gold during these times.




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This report covers the current status of artificial intelligence, which is gaining more prominence and triggering debates about whether AI will benefit humanity or mark its demise. We provide several cases on how narrow AI, the early stage of AI, is currently improving life in emerging markets.

 



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This report covers the current status of artificial intelligence, which is gaining more prominence and triggering debates about whether AI will benefit humanity or mark its demise. We provide several cases on how narrow AI, the early stage of AI, is currently improving life in emerging markets.

 



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Most of us are surprisingly wrong about the world. We must have a correct world view in order to make a judgment about where the world is headed. Unfortunately, this is where most of us already go wrong.

 

We are wrong! This, we found out while reading the eye-opening book Factfullness, in which author Hans Rosling exposes that when we are asked simple questions about global trends e.g., “where does the majority of the world population live?”, we systematically get the answers wrong.

So wrong that chimps choosing answers at random would consistently outguess teachers, journalists, Nobel laureates, and investment bankers. In particular: 12 multiple-choice questions with three options were asked to around 12,000 people in 14 countries. The results? About 80% scored worse than chimps would have.

Only 10% scored better. Rosling writes that most people think they are getting it kind of right – until they get tested (click here to test yourself). However, the contrary is true. In respect of some matters, it even seems that the more educated you are, the more ignorant you are.

 

Why? Rosling points to 10 human instincts (like fear and generalisation) that impact our “information filter” and judgement to explain why we are so ignorant.

At the same time, the media is exacerbating matters by painting a distorted and dramatised picture as their coverage is dominated by the negative and the exceptional. As such, positive changes don’t find you. You need to find them (in statistics or by traveling, for example).

To see the world as it is, we need to refresh our knowledge more regularly and change our attitude.

Rosling closes his book with some suggestions to obtain a more fact-based world view which have much to do with our attitude:

1. be humble enough to recognise that (1) knowledge does not have an unlimited shelf-life and needs to be updated regularly, (2) our instincts impact our information filter and judgement, (3) we should be prepared to change our opinion, and

2. be curious enough to (1) be open to new information and actively seek it out, (2) embrace facts that do not fit our world view and (3) let our mistakes trigger curiosity instead of embarrassment.

In short, by being actively open-minded and committed to self-improvement, investors will have a more factual view of the world, which will help them make better decisions.




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Most of us are surprisingly wrong about the world. We must have a correct world view in order to make a judgment about where the world is headed. Unfortunately, this is where most of us already go wrong.

 

We are wrong! This, we found out while reading the eye-opening book Factfullness, in which author Hans Rosling exposes that when we are asked simple questions about global trends e.g., “where does the majority of the world population live?”, we systematically get the answers wrong.

So wrong that chimps choosing answers at random would consistently outguess teachers, journalists, Nobel laureates, and investment bankers. In particular: 12 multiple-choice questions with three options were asked to around 12,000 people in 14 countries. The results? About 80% scored worse than chimps would have.

Only 10% scored better. Rosling writes that most people think they are getting it kind of right – until they get tested (click here to test yourself). However, the contrary is true. In respect of some matters, it even seems that the more educated you are, the more ignorant you are.

 

Why? Rosling points to 10 human instincts (like fear and generalisation) that impact our “information filter” and judgement to explain why we are so ignorant.

At the same time, the media is exacerbating matters by painting a distorted and dramatised picture as their coverage is dominated by the negative and the exceptional. As such, positive changes don’t find you. You need to find them (in statistics or by traveling, for example).

To see the world as it is, we need to refresh our knowledge more regularly and change our attitude.

Rosling closes his book with some suggestions to obtain a more fact-based world view which have much to do with our attitude:

1. be humble enough to recognise that (1) knowledge does not have an unlimited shelf-life and needs to be updated regularly, (2) our instincts impact our information filter and judgement, (3) we should be prepared to change our opinion, and

2. be curious enough to (1) be open to new information and actively seek it out, (2) embrace facts that do not fit our world view and (3) let our mistakes trigger curiosity instead of embarrassment.

In short, by being actively open-minded and committed to self-improvement, investors will have a more factual view of the world, which will help them make better decisions.




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