Author: admin heyokha

As we find ourselves at a critical juncture, where economic and political systems can be overturned, we turned to nature  for inspiration and learned what “species” of investors are most likely to thrive in this rapidly changing environment.

Lessons from nature

From: Essentials of Ecology, 5e, G. Tyler Millers and Scott E. Spoolman. (Brooks/Cole)

Scientists use the niches (pattern of living) of species to classify them broadly as generalists or specialists.

Generalist species have broad niches. They can live in many different places, eat a variety of foods, and often tolerate a wide range of environmental conditions. For example, mice, rats, and raccoons are generalist species. In contrast, specialist species occupy narrow niches. They may be able to live in only one type of habitat, use one or a few types of food, or tolerate a narrow range of climatic and other environmental conditions. This makes specialists more prone to extinction when environmental conditions change.

For example, tiger salamanders breed only in fishless ponds where their larvae will not be eaten. China’s giant panda is highly endangered because of a combination of habitat loss, low birth rate, and its specialised diet consisting mostly of bamboo.

Is it better to be a generalist or a specialist? It depends. When environmental conditions are fairly constant, as in a tropical rain forest, specialists have an advantage because they have fewer competitors. However, under rapidly changing environmental conditions, the generalist usually is better off than the specialist.

Kung Fu Panda vs. Rocket Raccoon
Double trouble: not only does Kung Fu panda Po belong to a specialist species at the brink of extinction, he is also a fanatic follower of a closed-minded martial art doctrine. Rocket Raccoon on the other hand is a fine example of a generalist survivor. The message? Don’t be like Po…
Source: Kapanlagi.com, Greenscene.co.id

How to invest? Diversify while maintaining flexibility
Just as generalist species are better able to adapt to sudden changes in their environment due to their diversified diet, we figure that generalist investors with a diversified investment diet should also be better positioned to adapt and thrive in the current socio-economic climate – as compared to their specialised counterparts.

For us, this means that diversification is now more important than ever. Second key success factor – in our opinion – is flexibility. The flexibility to move “habitats”, i.e., update your investment strategy if it is no longer working.

Admin heyokha

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What makes a better forecaster of future events? Well, if somebody can answer that question, it is Professor Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania.

Tetlock co-created The Good Judgement Project (GJP) which participated in a forecasting tournament held by IARPA, a U.S. government organisation.

IARPA supports research that has the potential to revolutionise intelligence analysis. The GJP won the tournament and its forecasters were 30% better than intelligence officers with access to classified info.

In his book “Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction”, he describes the portrait and methods of those top forecasters.

Besides concluding that foresight is real, Tetlock found that the key to forecasting is not what we think, but how we think:

• Foresight demands thinking that is open-minded, careful, curious, and—above all—self-critical;
• Good forecasters show a high degree of active open-mindedness, meaning that they are not merely open to reasons why a favoured possibility might be wrong but also actively look for them;
• The strongest predictor of rising into the ranks of forecasters is the degree to which one is committed to belief updating and self-improvement.

Factors most associated with foresight

• Belief updating
• Intelligence
• Knowledge
• Deliberation time
• Actively open minded
• Teams
• Training

Interestingly, Tetlock also noted in an earlier study that “subject matter expertise does not give a big boost to performance” and that “we reach the point of diminishing marginal predictive returns for knowledge disconcertingly quickly”. Investors can improve their forecasting skills by being actively open-minded and committed to self-improvement.

Admin heyokha

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Most of us are surprisingly wrong about the world. We must have a correct world view in order to make a judgment about where the world is headed. Unfortunately, this is where most of us already go wrong.

 

We are wrong! This, we found out while reading the eye-opening book Factfullness, in which author Hans Rosling exposes that when we are asked simple questions about global trends e.g., “where does the majority of the world population live?”, we systematically get the answers wrong.

So wrong that chimps choosing answers at random would consistently outguess teachers, journalists, Nobel laureates, and investment bankers. In particular: 12 multiple-choice questions with three options were asked to around 12,000 people in 14 countries. The results? About 80% scored worse than chimps would have.

Only 10% scored better. Rosling writes that most people think they are getting it kind of right – until they get tested (click here to test yourself). However, the contrary is true. In respect of some matters, it even seems that the more educated you are, the more ignorant you are.

 

Why? Rosling points to 10 human instincts (like fear and generalisation) that impact our “information filter” and judgement to explain why we are so ignorant.

At the same time, the media is exacerbating matters by painting a distorted and dramatised picture as their coverage is dominated by the negative and the exceptional. As such, positive changes don’t find you. You need to find them (in statistics or by traveling, for example).

To see the world as it is, we need to refresh our knowledge more regularly and change our attitude.

Rosling closes his book with some suggestions to obtain a more fact-based world view which have much to do with our attitude:

1. be humble enough to recognise that (1) knowledge does not have an unlimited shelf-life and needs to be updated regularly, (2) our instincts impact our information filter and judgement, (3) we should be prepared to change our opinion, and

2. be curious enough to (1) be open to new information and actively seek it out, (2) embrace facts that do not fit our world view and (3) let our mistakes trigger curiosity instead of embarrassment.

In short, by being actively open-minded and committed to self-improvement, investors will have a more factual view of the world, which will help them make better decisions.

Admin heyokha

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With the growing global internet penetration rate, the proliferation of smart devices, and the democratisation of knowledge, long-established barriers to business are lowering across industries around the globe. This is especially prevalent in developing markets, like Indonesia, where access to knowledge, skills, markets and funding have been limited. Let’s dive deeper into how this has improved.

Access to Knowledge

Technology has significantly improved the accessibility and affordability of information through (free) online content, ranging from simple how-to video’s on YouTube to courses on advanced topics like Machine Learning on platforms like Coursera, Audacity and Edx. Companies are opening up, too, with some sharing their learnings both online and offline, and even contribute to the coding community by publishing coding projects on online platforms like GitHub.

 

Indonesian ride-hailing firm Go-Jek publishes numerous videos on Youtube, covering a variety of topics from learning data science to surviving in the workplace.

Access to Talent

The rise of gig platforms like Upwork and GetCraft provide entrepreneurs access to highly skilled talents that may otherwise not be available to them locally, or for which they would not have a budget to hire on a full-time basis.

Large share of freelance work through platforms comprises higher-level skills
Source: BCG Future of Work 2018 worker survey.

Access to Markets Across the Globe

Tech has also levelled the playing field for small businesses by giving access to markets through online sales channels. Not only does online direct access to consumers reduce the dependency on distributors and retailers, but it also allows the seller to retain significantly higher margins.

Having an online presence has become very cheap nowadays – if not for free. Shopify, for instance, enables merchants to set-up and run their own customisable e-commerce platforms for only US$29 per month with no coding skills required.

Access to Business Infrastructure Without Capital

Major online marketplaces are evolving their ecosystems towards infrastructure-as-a-service, offering additional business services to their merchants such as logistics, fulfilment, payment and financial services. Examples are China’s Alibaba and Indonesia’s Tokopedia. These services cover areas that are normally capital intensive to perform in-house, lowering the barriers to doing business for many entrepreneurs.

Alibaba’s long-term vision is not to increase the number of merchants, but to make them more profitable.

Access to Funding

Limited access to funding has also been a critical barrier to growth for small businesses. In Indonesia for example there are estimates that about 51% of the adult population has now access to bank credit, resulting in a huge SME funding gap of $165 billion, according to SME Finance Forum.

But things are changing thanks to fintech ventures offering options for funding. Currently, Indonesia’s fintech industry has 88 registered platforms. In 2018, total loans allocated by Indonesia’s fintech industry in 2018 reached US$ 1.6 billion according to Indonesian Financial Services Authority.  It’s a small, but fast-growing number.

Welcome to the golden era of entrepreneurship

We at Heyokha are convinced that due to technology, we now live in a golden era of entrepreneurship. A time where anybody has the chance to pursue an idea and challenge the status quo. We can’t wait to see this creative potential be unleashed and are convinced that this Zeitgeist of entrepreneurship will drastically speed up innovation, especially in developing countries like Indonesia.

Admin heyokha

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