Category: Think Pieces

“The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled.”

Well, Plutarch ,the Greek Platonian philosopher, never paid an electricity bill for a data center.

Energy vs Intelligence: Tennis and Terawatts

Padel might be the weekend warrior’s sport of choice across Indonesia, but for the past two months, it’s been tennis that dominated the world stage. Between the French Open and Wimbledon, fans were treated to back-to-back showdowns of human endurance — none more epic than Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner.

We weren’t kidding about the Jakarta padel craze. We spotted 2 courts being built less than 5km of each other

In the French Open, they pushed each other to five-and-a-half hours of clay-court cinema. Then came Wimbledon, where Sinner defeated Alcaraz in a tight 4-set final. These guys weren’t just hitting balls; they were burning 4,000+ calories, draining glycogen stores, chugging electrolyte shakes, and downing sushi rolls like it was an endurance buffet.

Carlos Alcoraz’s euphoric collapse after winning the French Open

Jannik Sinner’s well-deserved win for Wimbledon weeks after his loss against Carlos

All of this for one thing: to win.

Now imagine this: the energy they burned over five hours? Your AI assistant could rival that just generating a five-second video of a cat doing the Macarena.

Sport has its logic. AI? It just has inputs.

Ask, and Ye Shall Be Billed

We live in an age where asking a chatbot to write your best man’s speech is easier than asking your actual best man. The only thing easier? Forgetting that every witty AI response comes with a side order of carbon emissions and an electricity tab that would make a Bitcoin miner blush.

Here’s a stat to ruin your next AI-generated love poem: creating a single five-second AI-generated video consumes more energy than running a microwave for over an hour.

Remember when people said every Google search is like boiling a pot of water? Well, AI said, “Hold my beer.”

Source: McKinsey

One Token at a Time: The Physics of Thought

Unlike humans who can blurt out nonsense in bulk, large language models generate intelligence the way monks transcribe scripture — one token at a time. Literally.

Each word, each fragment of a sentence, each “uhm… actually”—is calculated, processed, and produced token by token. And each token? That’s energy. A lot of it.

Meta’s open-source model Llama 3.1 405B burns through 6,706 joules per response, enough to move you 400 feet on an e-bike or power your microwave for eight seconds.

And that’s just text. Want a picture of a sloth eating ramen on the moon? Double it. Want a video of that same sloth moonwalking while eating ramen? That’ll be 3.4 million joules, please.

We’re not generating intelligence anymore. We’re mining it.

 

From LOLs to Terawatts: The Rise of the Inference Empire

Training the model is expensive, sure — GPT-4 reportedly cost over $100 million to train, consuming enough energy to power San Francisco for three days.

But that’s just the beginning. Most of the energy burn comes after the model is trained. That’s the inference stage — the moment when you, the user, type “Explain inflation like I’m five” and the AI replies “Imagine you have 10 cookies and suddenly the price of cookies triples.”

That cute reply? Brought to you by thousands of GPUs, humming fans, and water-cooled server racks spread across sprawling data centers. As of 2025, inference accounts for 80–90% of AI’s computing power consumption.

 

⚡ The Coming Energy Crunch: AI Is Not Your Average App

Unlike traditional apps, which got more energy-efficient over time (thank you Moore’s Law), AI is like that kid who eats more and more every year and doesn’t stop growing.

The real kicker? AI’s energy demand is projected to rise so steeply that by 2028, it could consume as much electricity annually as 22% of all US households.

Meanwhile, most data centers are still powered by fossil fuels. Some AI companies are racing to build new nuclear power plants (seriously, Meta and Microsoft are trying), but those take time. In the meantime, expect more methane-powered generators and a few eyebrows from environmental regulators.

 

Enter: Aura Farming, But for Terawatts

In another corner of the internet, 11-year-old Rayyan Arkan Dikha, better known as Dika, has been dancing on the prow of a canoe during traditional boat races called “Pacu Jalur” in Riau. His charisma, sunglasses, and swagger sparked a global meme sensation: “aura farming.”

Dika with 1000x aura points

                                                                     

From K-pop bands like Enhypen, corporate companies like Duolingo, and world famous DJ Steve Aokie – the aura farming goes crazy

The dance has been recreated by everyone from Travis Kelce (star football player and also Taylor Swift’s boyfriend) to the Savannah Bananas baseball team. The phrase now refers to doing something cool, repetitive, and charismatic to build vibe capital — and Dika’s doing it without touching a watt.

Meanwhile, our digital models farm aura a little differently: by torching through megawatts.

So the question is: which aura is more sustainable?

One is rooted in tradition, community, and culture. The other? Burned into silicon and powered by a carbon-heavy grid.

 

Decoding the Compute Layer: The Cost of Brains in the Cloud

Let’s break this down with our Heyokha lens: in our framework of ABC — AI, Blockchain, Compute — compute is the often-forgotten but absolutely vital third sibling. We’ve touched on the “A” and “B” factors in our latest blogs It’s the protein shake behind AI’s intellectual six-pack.

And compute, quite literally, means energy, chips, servers, water, and real estate.

• Want smarter AI? You need bigger models, which means more parameters and more chips.
• More chips? You need more cooling. Some data centers are guzzling millions of gallons of water per day just to keep it all from melting down.
• And unless someone invents an energy-efficient way to hallucinate cat memes, we’re going to need a lot more juice.

 

The Unintended Consequences: When Chatbots Demand Power Plants

The trend is clear: every company wants to “AI-enable” everything. From your fridge recommending recipes to your Excel sheet auto-analyzing Q3 earnings.

But this intelligence arms race comes at a steep cost. As AI gets baked into everything, it threatens to reshape our energy grids, strain our infrastructure, and increase your electricity bill.

Yes — utility companies are already striking deals with data centers that may pass on higher energy costs to you and me. In Virginia, the average ratepayer could pay an extra $37.50/month thanks to data center expansion.

But the cost isn’t just measured in dollars.

Water, the original cooling tech, is now a silent casualty of the AI revolution. According to Bloomberg, about two-thirds of new AI data centers since 2022 have been built in water-stressed regions, from Arizona to India to the UAE. A single 100-megawatt facility — enough to power 75,000 homes — can use 2 million liters of water per day, or the equivalent of 6,500 households’ daily water needs.

Water-stressed areas see the most growth for data centers to be built

Source: Bloomberg

As more data centers rely on evaporative cooling systems, often using fresh or even potable water, communities from Texas to the Netherlands have begun protesting. Because while servers need cooling, so do crops, households, and ecosystems.

So when your smart speaker tells you a joke, just know you might be paying for it twice: once in laughs, and once in kilowatt-hours.

 

So What?

We’re not here to be anti-AI. In fact, we’re bullish on the productivity and innovation it can unlock. But as investors, observers, and humans who still like forests and breathable air, we should ask:

• Who benefits from this AI-driven energy boom?
• Which companies are selling the shovels in this new “intelligence gold rush”?
• Will AI be the catalyst that accelerates nuclear adoption, or will it deepen our dependence on gas?

 

As we see it, energy is quickly becoming the new strategic battleground for intelligence. Not just oil for tanks — but watts for bots.

 

Tara Mulia

 

Admin heyokha

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Souvenirs, Snacks, and Shareholder Sovereignty

You’ve seen the footage.

Hundreds of Indonesian retail investors lining up since dawn. Not for a sneaker drop. Not for a Taylor Swift concert.

But for… Astra International’s Annual General Meeting (ASII IJ).

Yes. The AGM.

What’s the draw? The dividends? The management Q&A?

Not quite. We’re talking souvenirs.

Vouchers. Water bottles. And in recent years?

Digital blood pressure monitors. Xiaomi smartwatches. Bento boxes. And allegedly, headaches for the organizers—cue Bodrex, Indonesia’s beloved aspirin.

Tiktoks of attendees showing off their goody bags and proudly queuing

The scenes look like a scene from Comic-Con, not a corporate meeting. But perhaps that’s the point.

Sure, some come for the freebies. But many stick around for the long haul — not just for the snacks, but for the strategy.

And they’re not just showing up in Indonesia. They’re forming a quiet but powerful force globally.

Japan: Where AGMs Meet Gift Culture

Over in Japan, this retail investor culture has evolved into an art form.

According to a Bloomberg report, more companies than ever are offering gifts at their annual meetings to attract what they call “fan shareholders.” From cash vouchers to collectible items, the movement is clear: companies are courting the crowd.

In 2024, 11% of Japanese firms offered AGM gifts, up from 4% in 2021.

More than 120 companies gave cash vouchers—5x more than in 2019.

Why? Because retail investors vote.

And when activist investors start knocking, those loyal “fan” shareholders start looking a lot like defensive moats.

Source: Bloomberg

One Tokyo-based retail investor said it best:

“I get a HUB card for free drinks… I use it to treat my friends and kind of show off my shareholder status.”

It’s Buffett with a side of beer.

Why Retail Investors Sometimes Move First

In capital markets, retail investors are often dismissed as emotional, erratic, and under-informed.

But here’s a crazy thought: maybe they just think differently.

Where institutions shuffle portfolios quarterly, retail investors show up with umbrellas and lunchboxes at 7AM.

Where the pros dig through terminal screens, the retail crowd is doing Peter Lynch-style scuttlebutt:

“I use this product.”

“I saw a line at their store.”

“My kid wants that toy.”

And sometimes? That works better.

Peter Lynch Knew Before It Was Cool

In Beating the Street, Lynch tells the story of 7th graders from St. Agnes School building a portfolio.

One of Heyokha’s favorite readings

Their secret? Vibes.

They picked stocks they knew: Nike, The Body Shop, Wal-Mart. They liked the products. They saw the lines.

Two years later?

The kids delivered a 70% return vs. the S&P’s 26%. They beat 99% of mutual funds.

The lesson? Retail doesn’t mean random.

It means they observe life and invest accordingly.

Retail: The Most Underappreciated “Whale” in the Market

Let’s look at the structural trends:

Technology has made investing frictionless.

The pandemic triggered millions of first-time investors.

Commission-free trading, fractional shares, TikTok explainers, and Whatsapp groups have turned curiosity into conviction.

The numbers speak for themselves. Though it has not recovered from post pandemic levels nearing 60%, the latest number of 40% is still respectable!
Source: IDX

These retail investors:

• Sit through AGMs — some for the snacks, others for the substance (many for both)
• Vote with surprising consistency in favor of management.
• Stick around longer than most quant-driven funds.

Of course, retail investors aren’t a monolith. Some are day traders. Some are dividend die-hards. Some just want to flex their AGM goody bags. But that’s kind of the point — there’s no single archetype. Just millions of individual minds showing up with curiosity.

It’s the showing up that counts.

And it looks like they’re growing and actually sticking through.

The Indonesian Retail Stock Investors Hit Record High of 7 million in 2025

Source: KSEI

The game isn’t: “How do we get rid of them?”

It’s: “How do we build with them?”

Final Thought: Maybe the Real Freebie… Is Loyalty

Sure, the bento box is cute.

But the real ROI might be in what it represents:

People showing up.

Voting.

Holding.

❤️ Caring.

It’s easy to call retail investors unsophisticated.

But maybe they’re just early to the stuff the pros haven’t priced in yet.

And if you’re worried about following the crowd?

Don’t be.

As long as you packed snacks and got there first.

Tara Mulia and Nicholas

Admin heyokha

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The Wars May Be Short. But the Questions They Raise Are Long.

Twelve days. That’s how long the latest round between Iran and Israel lasted. But while missiles fell, satellites blinked, and markets flinched — the bigger ripple was philosophical:

What does it mean to be sovereign in 2025?

Because today, it’s not just about having borders. It’s about:

• Who controls your power grid.
• Who supplies your fertilizers.
• And maybe even… who gets your TikTok algorithm.

When war breaks out, it’s never just over there. It’s in your wheat price, your energy bill, and your supply chain spreadsheet.

We saw this movie before — in 2022. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine turned ammonia into a geopolitical weapon and fertilizer into front-page news. In our past blog Rising Fertiliser and Food Prices: Who Will Be Spared? we warned that ammonia could become the canary in the commodity coal mine.

Well, the bird is still chirping. And the war drums haven’t stopped.

The Ghost of Fertilizer Past (Still Haunting the Present)

Let’s catch up.

When Russia turned off the gas taps to Europe, fertilizer plants went dark. Ammonia prices spiked. Food prices surged. Countries like Egypt scrambled for nitrogen. Farmers in Indonesia relying on fertilizers felt the heat in their wallets — even as we sat thousands of miles from the trenches.

20% of Ukraine’s farmland remains mined, occupied or unusable

Fast forward to 2025: Brent crude jumps above $80, fertilizer prices spike again, and the Strait of Hormuz — the artery for 40% of global urea and 20% of LNG — is back in headlines.

Norwegian fertilizer giant Yara warns: “The food system is fragile.”

They’re not kidding:

• Israel’s gasfields shut down → Egypt’s ammonia supply stalls.
• Iran shuts down its plants “for security reasons.”
• A fifth of global ammonia flows face disruption.
• One more misfire in the region and breakfast gets more expensive.

It’s not just food that’s vulnerable. It’s the whole latticework of modern sovereignty.

The New Arms Race

Back to Israel and Iran.

Beyond the rockets, the deeper question lingered quietly: what happens when sovereignty includes strategic capabilities like nuclear deterrence? It’s a reminder that power today isn’t just immediate — it’s long-term, layered, and loaded with implications.

And while the ceasefire held, the spending race didn’t stop. In fact, it accelerated.

The Numbers Are Loud:

• Global defense spend hit $2.7 trillion in 2024.
• NATO’s new pledge? A whopping 5% of GDP on defense. 20% of the defense expenditures will be devoted to major equipment spending.
• Russia’s defense budget? Up 38% YoY to $149 billion (7.1% of GDP).
• Even China’s chill 1.7% of GDP translates to an estimated $290 billion.

Even traditionally neutral countries are piling in as seen in Switzerland joining the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI), aiming to contribute to a pan-European air and missile defense system

23 NATO countries have met or surpassed the 2% guideline – nearly 6-fold increase from just four in 2014

And 29 NATO countries have already surpassed their equipment expenditure guideline!

Source: NATO

Translation? Defense is no longer just about tanks. It’s bullets, chips, rare earths, and energy security.

We’re not just funding armies. We’re rebuilding the idea of sovereignty through industrial might:

• Chips.
• Lasers.
• Satellites.
• And all the raw materials that make those possible.

Source: The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

The F-16 Fighting Falcon, the most common fighter jet in the world, costs $25-70 million each!

Sovereignty Is a Supply Chain and Indonesia is a Link

In the Cold War, power was measured in nukes. In 2025? It’s measured in gallium, graphite, and rare earths — the obscure elements that quietly power everything from night vision goggles to missile guidance systems.

You can’t launch a drone strike without a critical mineral checklist.

And here’s the kicker: most of the world’s refining capacity sits in China. Gallium, graphite, and rare earths? All subject to export controls now. China may still dominate the refining process — with over 80% control over rare earth processing — but Indonesia is one of the few nations actually blessed with the raw ingredients. This makes us a crucial character in the geopolitical drama unfolding between the West and China.

Let’s talk nickel.

Indonesia’s got the world’s biggest stash. But instead of shipping it out raw (as we used to), we’re processing it here. We banned unprocessed exports, built refineries, and started climbing the value chain — like adults putting on our own oxygen masks first.

Indonesia is now one of the few places on earth where raw minerals meet refining ambition meets geopolitical non-alignment.

• China wants in — to lock up supply.
• The West wants in — to de-risk from China.
• Indonesia? Sitting in the middle, holding the rocks everyone wants.

The result? We’re not just a passive supplier. We’re a player.

Call it “strategic mineral non-alignment.” A sweet spot — if we play it wisely.

Danantara, Indonesia’s sovereign wealth fund, is making moves to invest more nickel down streaming projects

Food for Thought: What Really Makes a Country “Safe”?

It’s not just missiles anymore. Sovereignty now spans:

• Energy security (ask Germany).
• Fertilizer self-sufficiency (ask Egypt).
• Data governance (ask the EU).
• Rare earth access (ask the Pentagon).

The irony? While AI headlines steal the spotlight, it’s the boring stuff — beans, bandwidth, and bauxite — that determines who thrives when the world gets shaky.

Maybe in 2025, the price of sovereignty isn’t measured in warheads, but in warehouses.

Investor Takeaways: What to Watch

1. Resilience > Efficiency
   The “just-in-time” era is over. Countries and corporates alike are paying up for redundancy, not speed.
2. Defense Is the New ESG
   What was once controversial is now compulsory. Defense capex is a new secular theme — from drones to defense semis to supply chain hardening.
3. Supply Chains = Strategy
   Follow the materials. Gallium, ammonia, nickel — the commodity isn’t the story. The control of it is.

Final Thought: The Game Has Changed — But Are We Playing It?

The 12-day Israel-Iran flare-up may have faded from headlines. But its message is loud:

In a world of flash wars and fragile supply chains, sovereignty is no longer a given. It’s something you build. And defend. And fund — year after year.

So whether you’re a policymaker, a CEO, or a curious observer of markets, ask yourself:

“What part of my strategy still assumes the world is predictable?”

Because today’s sovereignty isn’t about waving a flag. It’s about owning your food, your fuel, and your future.

 

Tara Mulia

Admin heyokha

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Remember when we said AI will eat software?
Turns out, we underestimated its appetite.
Because next on the menu is AI itself — and who’s doing the eating? Philosophy.

Check out our previous blog: AI Just Ate your CRM on our website

A 2,400-Year-Old Blueprint

Long before we worried about chatbots hallucinating your medical bill, Aristotle laid down a neat framework for life: SMLSR.

• Substance — it exists on its own.
• Material — made of physical stuff.
• Living — grows, reproduces.
• Sentient — feels and perceives.
• Rational — thinks about thinking.

 

A rock? Just Substance + Material.

A plant? Add Living.

A cat? Add Sentient.

A human? The full stack: Substance, Material, Living, Sentient, Rational.

Aristotle called rationality the soul’s unique gift — our edge over every other beast.

Today? We’ve built machines that can fake Sentience frighteningly well. But true Rationality? That still sits squarely in the human corner.

Viral post asking Chat GPT to simulate being human for a day. Surprisingly well-written and touching. Sentience checks out.

The Big Myth: More Compute Solves Everything

Most companies still treat AI as an engineering puzzle:
More data. Bigger models. Faster chips.

But that’s like pouring rocket fuel into a car with no steering wheel. You don’t just get there faster — you crash harder.

Here’s the truth: All AI is biased.
Bias isn’t a glitch — it’s a choice. It’s in the data we feed it, the trade-offs we hard-code, the outcomes we reward.

As code increasingly governs what we see, buy, believe, and trust, the values embedded in that code shape everything.

What gets rewarded.
What gets suppressed.
Who profits. Who’s left behind.

This isn’t an IT problem — it’s a philosophical one.

Patterns Are Not Purpose

AI today is brilliant at one thing: spotting patterns.
It predicts the next word, the next pixel, the next move — with staggering accuracy.

But should it?
What patterns matter? Which truths do we protect? When does convenience trump accuracy, or vice versa?

These aren’t engineering questions. They’re moral ones.

MIT’s Michael Schrage and David Kiron say this shift is a battle between bounded rationality and bounded patterns. Generative AI doesn’t deduce like a philosopher — it imitates. When conflicting goals collide? It buckles.

Bright minds in MIT have already been researching this topic.

Michael Schrage is a research fellow with the MIT Sloan School of Management’s Initiative on the Digital Economy

David Kiron is the editorial director and researcher of MIT Sloan Management Review and program lead for its Big Ideas research initiatives.

Google Gemini serves as a cautionary tale.

In early 2024 the model began adding forced diversity to historically specific prompts—think Black Vikings or an Asian officer in a WWII German uniform. Two worthy aims, accuracy and inclusion, collided with no hierarchy to resolve the tension. The backlash, apology, and shutdown that followed are what ethicists have dubbed “teleological confusion.”

Patterns only matter when they serve a purpose—and purpose is a philosophical choice.

Some examples of brands we’ve seen here in Indonesia and abroad who nail this mission first thinking:

 

• Sahabat-AI | GoTo & Indosat

The ecosystem that leverages across tech, telco, media, and governmental support

GoTo’s President of On-Demand Services, Catherine Hindra Sutjahyo showcasing the use cases of Sahabat-AI

Indonesia’s GoTo and Indosat teamed up in late 2024 to launch Sahabat-AI — an open-source large language model crafted specifically for Bahasa Indonesia and regional dialects like Javanese, Sundanese, Balinese, and Bataknese.

Its mission is clear: strengthen Indonesia’s digital sovereignty and make advanced AI genuinely useful for everyone, not just the urban tech crowd.

By weaving in local language and cultural cues, Sahabat-AI can power everything from chatbots in e-commerce apps to educational tools in rural schools — all in the words people actually use at home. So when the model faces a choice — generic global answer or locally meaningful response — its purpose keeps it grounded in community relevance and trust.

 

• Spotify | AI DJ (Voice-Request upgrade, May 2025)

Spotify’s AI DJ just got a serious upgrade: it now handles voice requests like “Play underground ’70s disco” or “Give me energizing beats for my afternoon slump.” This is more than a novelty — it lives up to Spotify’s north star to “connect fans and artists” and “soundtrack every moment.”

When deciding between obvious hits and hidden gems, the algorithm resolves the tension by favoring discovery and artist exposure over mindless autoplay loops. Listeners say it feels like having a friend who knows your taste and surprises you — because the AI’s purpose demands more than just maximizing screen time.

Purpose is the quiet super-prompt. When it’s crystal clear, AI knows how to act when objectives collide. Leave it fuzzy and you risk becoming the next Gemini-style headline.

Alignment Starts at Zero: A New Society Needs New Ground Rules

Most firms bolt on “AI alignment” after they ship the model. That’s like teaching ethics to a lion after you’ve set it loose in a daycare.

If AI is this powerful, the real question isn’t can it do X?

It’s should it?

And according to whose values?

We’re not just living in an AI age — we’re living in a world where code quietly does what kings once did: it governs.

But code is invisible. So we have to ask:
Whose rules? Whose benefit? Whose blind spots?

This is why a “Responsible AI” team alone won’t save you. You need explicit commitment to:

✅ Understand the real stakes: AI won’t wait for committees to catch up.
✅ Guide it early: aim it at causes aligned with human flourishing.
✅ Build responsibly: every company owning a model should own its moral assumptions too.

One Callback to Our Last Thesis

In AI Eats Software, we said smart interfaces would wipe out clunky dashboards. But as AI replaces software’s role as the worker, trust becomes the real moat.

Power is shifting from visible tools to invisible thinking. When power shifts — central to distributed — the only anchor left is trust in the values behind the code.

What Leaders Should Really Be Doing

Good AI doesn’t just run tasks — it carries your worldview.

So map it:

• What does your AI know? (Epistemology)
• How does it label the world? (Ontology)
• Why does it do what it does? (Teleology)

Schrage calls this responsibility mapping. We call it good sense in an age of self-writing code.

Final Thought: The Last R Still Belongs to Us

Aristotle gave us a map: from rocks to cats to humans — and that final jump: Rationality.

We’ve taught machines to mimic the living and the sentient. Next up is mimicking Reason. But real Reason isn’t just data. It’s values. Trade-offs. Choosing what matters.

So before you brag about your next trillion-parameter model — check if it has a soul. Or at least a philosophical backbone.

Software ate the world.
AI ate software.
And now?
Philosophy will eat AI.

Better feed it wisely — or risk being dinner yourself.

 

Tara Mulia

Admin heyokha

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Picture this:
You’re at a noisy arcade like Timezone or Funworld in one of Jakarta’s malls lured by the flashing lights, blaring music, and a dose of nostalgia.

You swap a crisp Rp100,000 note for a plastic game card loaded with digital credits. (When I was younger, we used physical coin tokens and you had to wear pants with pockets deep enough to carry them)

Kid-friendly Vegas

You lose half in a rigged claw machine. A quarter to classic Tekken. And the rest for 7 minutes on a Dance Dance Revolution machine, feet flailing. You tap out, breathless, and redeem your hard-earned tickets — only to realize they get you exactly one pen that barely writes.

 

Did you just waste your money? Maybe.

But notice this: you trusted digital tokens over paper cash because inside the arcade, tokens are simpler, faster, and universally accepted.

Stablecoins are the arcade tokens of today’s global economy — but they don’t stay inside the arcade. They cross borders, never close, and quietly fix the pain points your bank still pretends are normal.

A Fix Hiding in Plain Sight

For all the hype around crypto moons and meme coins, stablecoins solve something far more boring — and therefore, more durable.

They answer a practical question:

How do you move dollars at internet speed, with blockchain-level transparency, and no wire fees or banker’s lunch break in the way?

They’re not here to replace money.

They’re here to upgrade money’s plumbing.

This Is Not a Revolution. It’s an Evolution.

If you look closer, stablecoins echo the big shifts we see playing out worldwide:

De-globalization? When trade routes get political and supply chains come home, people look for new rails to keep money moving, cheaply and discreetly.

De-dollarization? When countries fear dollar-based sanctions, stablecoins become a side door: a shadow dollar that’s programmable and borderless.

Decentralization? When trust in big intermediaries fades, people put faith in math. A blockchain ledger, open to all, beats a bank vault open 9–5.

Stablecoins quietly ride all three currents. They’re not protest coins or Ponzi bets. They’re pragmatic bridges from old pipes to new flows.

Why Use Them? Let’s Talk Chips

In Vegas, nobody slaps a hundred-dollar bill on the blackjack table. You use chips — faster, uniform, cashable anytime.

Heyokha Movie Favorites: “The Big Short” – specifically the scene with Selena Gomez explaining how CDOs work using the game of poker

Stablecoins? Same idea — except the casino is the global financial system.

Want to lend, borrow, or earn yield in crypto? You don’t wire money to some shady middleman. You park stablecoins on a blockchain app — better known as DeFi (short for Decentralized Finance). DeFi is just your local bank’s back office — minus the marble lobby and surly tellers.

Stablecoins make DeFi run smoothly:

• Programmable, so smart contracts do the paperwork.
• Redeemable, so trust is collateralised — real dollars and Treasuries sit behind them, verified by auditors.
• Global, so they ignore time zones and national borders.

Poker chips work because the casino cage redeems them at face value.

Stablecoins work because trustworthy issuers (like Circle’s USDC) guarantee that for every token minted, a real dollar or Treasury bill sits safely somewhere, verified by auditors.

Break that trust (hello, Terra Luna), and the market teaches a swift lesson.

Real World, Real Money

Here’s the kicker:

Tether, the biggest stablecoin, moves ~$100 billion daily, with ~90% of that volume living in emerging markets where people trust crypto dollars more than their own banks.

And this product? It’s now the backbone for tokenized Treasuries, DeFi lending, and cross-border paychecks — areas where “fast money” used to mean “expensive wires.”

  

Stablecoins rapidly becoming mainstream- in banking, groceries, and even in gaming!

When crypto kids sniff out an edge, that’s fun.

When Stripe, Visa, JPMorgan, and Citi sniff it too — you pay attention.

• Stripe scooped up Bridge for stablecoin rails and Privy for embedded wallets — so any dev can build instant crypto payments in five clicks.
• Visa & Mastercard pilot stablecoin settlement to cut costly FX loops.
• Big banks, once dismissive, now quietly sketch joint stablecoins to keep cross-border clients from drifting DeFi-ward.

It’s a game of keep-up. And the chips are stablecoins.

Old ETFs, New Tokens

Here’s your granddad’s way:

• Buy a Treasury ETF.
• Wait two days for settlement.
• Wait a month for yield.

The new way:

• Swap stablecoins for a tokenized Treasury.
• Yield streams daily.
• Cash out whenever, globally.

Franklin Templeton, the global investment firm? Doing it.

Stripe? Enabling it.

Next? Everyone who hates wire fees.

Final Thought: Chips at a Global Table

Odds you win that claw machine: 1 in 15.

Odds your bank wires your money on time: about the same on a public holiday.

Stablecoins skip both — they just work. They’re the chips on every table — Vegas or Jakarta — letting players bet, cash out, and stay liquid without asking permission.

Stablecoins won’t make you trust fiat again if you ever have doubts, but they might make you trust finance again.

No waiting room. No middleman. No banker asking what the funds are for.

Just verified, auditable, programmable value.

And maybe—just maybe—a new global monetary layer that’s not backed by belief in governments, but by math.

We don’t know if stablecoins will go to the moon, but they might build the bridge to the future.

 

Tara Mulia and Simon Chan

Admin heyokha

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Loneliness, Third Spaces, and Why Pets Are Quietly Taking Over the Economy

Last weekend at a pet shop, we stumbled upon a towering display of prams—not for babies, but for dogs. Yes, dogs. Each stroller more stylish and padded than the next.

And it made us wonder: the next time you see someone pushing a stroller down the street, will you coo at a baby—or be met with the panting snout of a Pomeranian named Mochi?

Not a shocker, really. In a world where third spaces are increasingly rare and the cost of raising a child has skyrocketed, many are turning to pets for connection, purpose, and companionship.

Welcome to the Micro-Connection Era. And no, we’re not surprised.

The Loneliest Generation? We’ve Seen This Coming

We’ve never been more connected. And never felt more alone.

According to a 2023 Harris Poll, nearly 80% of Americans would choose a completely in-person social life over a digital-only one. Globally, governments are responding with white papers, ministers of loneliness, and social strategies. Investors might want to respond too.

Because loneliness? That’s a market signal.

Sociologist Ray Oldenburg once coined the term “third places”—places outside of home and work where people gather. Coffee shops, gyms, parks, padel courts.

Now, we’re seeing the evolution: “fourth places.” Book clubs. Pottery meetups. Padel groups. According to Eventbrite’s 2023 survey, 73% of 18–35 year olds plan to attend in-person events soon. Even better? 85% of those who already did said they made a close friend.

It’s clear. Gen Z and Millennials don’t just want community. They’re building it. But when they can’t find it?

They adopt it. Fur, paws, and all.

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Previously on Heyokha…

Remember our deep dive into the Microjoy Economy—where small, emotionally potent purchases like Labubu toys reflected a shift from macro-consumption to micro-splurges? Consider this the sequel. And yes, we still believe in the power of joy per Rupiah.

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Pets: The New Social Infrastructure

When you can’t find a third space, a third species will do.

According to a 2023 OnePoll survey for Synchrony:

• 41% of Gen Z would rather spend $100 on their pet than their partner.
• 36% of Gen Z say they get more joy from seeing their pet happy than their partner.
• 42% would skip vacations to save for surprise pet costs.
• 45% would give up eating out for a year in exchange for free pet care.
• Nearly half of millennials would sleep outside in the snow if it meant their pet could live one more year.

We are not joking. But we are impressed.

And let’s talk money. Synchrony estimates that the total cost of raising a dog over a lifetime can range between $20,000 and $55,000. For cats, it’s $15,000–$46,000. In an era where human babies feel financially impossible, pets are stepping into the emotional—and budgetary—void.

Babies? Maybe Not. But Definitely a Beagle.

According to Pew Research, 47% of young U.S. adults now say they’re unlikely to have children. Why? Top reasons include:

• It’s too expensive.
• The world feels unstable.
• Honestly, they just don’t want to.

So what do they want instead?

• Something cuddly.
• Something emotionally validating.
• Something you can name after your favorite drinks or dessert without much judgement.

Hence: the fur baby boom.

In fact, Gen Z spends an average of $178/month on their pets, according to Lemonade the insurance company (2024). That’s nearly $90/month more than Boomers. Over a pet’s lifetime, that translates into luxury-brand-level spending.

And all this love for pets? It’s also changing the labor market. According to Indeed’s 2025 Best Jobs list, veterinarian is now the #1 job in America. Job postings for vets rose 124% between 2021 and 2024.

Even our career aspirations are going to the dogs. Literally.

Indonesia Is Right On Cue

In Indonesia, malls have gone from “no pets allowed” to rolling out red carpets for fur babies. Major shopping centers now provide pet-access zones, dedicated parks, hydration corners, and yes—boutique grooming services inside the mall.

 

And if you’re still wondering whether pets have made it into the mainstream, just ask Bobby.

Yes, President Prabowo’s cat Bobby is arguably the most influential feline in the country. With over 1 million Instagram followers, Bobby doesn’t just sit pretty—he rolls up to events in a customized Rp6.5 million stroller (equivalent to $400 USD), flanked by a full security detail. And when Bobby made a public appearance, even Bill Gates showed up to meet him.

1 million fans for the feline. We weren’t kidding about Bill Gates. He even gifted Bobby a whale plush toy.

Bobby rolling into Jakarta’s Pet Fest as an honorary guest, decked out in his custom stroller equipped with an iPad. Bobby is so popular he has a Wikipedia.

The message is clear: in Indonesia, fur babies aren’t just welcome. They’re VIPs.

Indonesia’s digitally native, pet-loving population makes it fertile ground for this shift. Pets, once confined to the home, are now part of the daily fabric of urban leisure—and even statecraft, apparently.

Investor Implications: It’s a Fur-Midable Market

Some might brush this off as fluff. But don’t let the tiny sweaters and diamond-studded scratching posts fool you.

This is a market.

And it’s a sticky one. Pets don’t get cheaper as they age. They get more expensive. And pet owners? They’re loyal. More loyal than… well, most customers in any other vertical.

The winners in this space will be:

• Platforms that combine quality with personalization
• Brands that offer emotional ROI, not just calories
• Services that integrate grooming, vet care, and wellness under one app, one brand, one leash

And as traditional third spaces evolve—or vanish—brands that can become proxy communities will capture not just wallets, but hearts.

In a time when people are skipping weddings, deferring mortgages, and swiping right less often than they’re checking their dog’s calorie tracker, one thing is clear:

This isn’t just a lifestyle shift. It’s a portfolio opportunity.

So the next time you pass a stroller on the street, don’t assume it’s a baby in that stroller.
It could be your next growth driver—covered in fur, drool, and a Gucci harness.

 

Tara Mulia

Admin heyokha

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Salon in a high premium mall in Central Jakarta. 1pm on Saturday. I should be seeing the last chair being fought over at this point

The salon was empty. On a weekend.

So empty, in fact, that they started offering happy hour promos on a Saturday—a time usually reserved for weddings, reunions, and revenge glow-ups.

When I asked the staff what was going on, she shared: “It’s only busy now during weekday lunch… and it’s mostly just shampoo and blow-dry. No more exclusive packages.”

Doth my eyes deceive me? Monday TO Sunday??

If the best indicator of consumer confidence could be measure by our hair, then it seems the mood has shifted from “treat yourself” to “just trim the split ends”.

On the ground, we’ve also seen another curious signal: a cigarette ad promising: “40% longer lasting.” It’s a strange pitch, but a telling one. The message isn’t about taste or image. It’s about duration.

In other words: We know you’re saving. Let us help you savor

These are not just quirky moments. They are hints of how people are recalibrating their spending.

Some data points:

• Eid holiday travel dropped 24%.
• Ramadan’s usual consumption boost never materialized.
• Sales growth for food, beverage, and tobacco? Just 1.3%—down from 7.5% last year.
• Fuel consumption dipped 1.1% during Eid.
• Debit card transactions declined 4%, while credit card growth slowed notably.

But this isn’t a tale of retreat. It’s one of reinvention.

This is Global

Look beyond Indonesia and you’ll see the same trend lines forming.

In the U.S., credit card delinquencies are creeping toward pandemic-era highs. Klarna—the “Buy Now, Pay Later” poster child—saw its losses double. Nearly half of its users paid late last year; a quarter used it for groceries.

Source: The New York Times

Consumption persists, yes—but often at the cost of savings and future spending. The mood isn’t “fear,” it’s focus. On essentials, on efficiency, and yes—on small, meaningful indulgences.

The Labubu Logic: Why Small Splurges are Big Business

We’re not seeing the end of spending—we’re seeing the evolution of how people choose to spend.

From flashy, high-ticket purchases to lower-cost, higher-yield experiences. From conspicuous consumption to curated comfort.

Because when the future feels hazy, people hold tight to the small things they can control: a quick treat, a satisfying purchase, a moment of delight.

Somewhere between coping and collecting, Labubu Version 3 dropped. With its ombré sparkle and limited availability, it sold out instantly. For many, it wasn’t just a toy—it was a moment of joy, a small win in a time when big wins feel delayed.

Labubu is more than a figurine. It’s the mascot of the Microjoy Economy.

Labubu fans flying to Singapore to get the “Merbubu” exclusive collection. In the UK, some stores had to pause selling because the crowds got too intense

If you squint past the glitter, you’ll see something quietly profound: even when wallets tighten, the need for joy doesn’t disappear. It just finds smaller vessels.

This isn’t irrational. It’s adaptive. A concept economists once called the Lipstick Index—resilient demand for small luxuries during downturns—now has a Gen Z upgrade. Call it Lipstick 2.0 or the Microjoy Index:

• Boba tea over Birkin bags
• a cold whisked matcha over Gucci
• Labubu over long-term planning

These aren’t just trends. They’re emotional hedges. Consumers are engineering their own sense of resilience through affordable indulgence, building a decentralized joy system from the bottom up.

Because when control over the macro feels distant, taking command over a tiny purchase—or ripping open a mystery box—feels like reclaiming something. You can say it’s hedonic risk management with a splash of TikTok sparkle.

Indonesia is Built for This Moment: The Story of Ci Mehong

Indonesia’s consumption culture and demographics make it a prime landscape for this trend:

• Young, mobile-first population
• Familiarity with digital scarcity (e.g. flash sales, hype drops)
• Cultural lean-in to collecting, limited editions, and bite-sized luxury

Rather than pulling back, many consumers are simply changing course with GJP (Gross Joy Product) is rising towards purchases that feel more personal, rewarding, and shareable.

Take Ci Mehong, the viral entrepreneur behind PIK Baking House.

She started with holding baking classes. Then she pivoted—fast. Now she sells premium snacks (think bika ambon and lapis legit), imported fruit, even exclusive cemetery land. All infused with her trademark spunky attitude.

Her secret? Presence. Daily videos, viral challenges, and a direct connection to 700K+ loyal followers. She built not just a product line, but a culture of inclusiveness. A space where high prices feel less intimidating when delivered with flair.

And it works. Not in spite of the times, but because of them. Her success story exemplifies how innovation and adaptability can thrive, even in challenging economic times.

Her secret recipe? Videos of her doing various viral challenges like toppling buckets of butter, daily home cooking and dress shopping achieving that “casual relatable feel” whilst keeping her sassy attitude

Final Thought: Small is the New Smart

We began this story in a salon—eerily quiet on a Saturday.

We passed a cigarette ad selling longevity over luxury.

We ended up with a glittering goblin-like toy named Labubu, a reminder that joy doesn’t have to be expensive—it just needs to be engineered right.

The consumer hasn’t disappeared. They’ve just reallocated.

From splurging on big-ticket aspirations… to investing in small, high-yield feelings.

For investors, this is a map—pointing toward the companies that understand the moment:
✅ Those that package presence, not just product.
✅ Those that master scarcity and storytelling, not just shelf space.
✅ Those that live natively in mobile culture, where virality converts faster than footfall.

This isn’t a downturn. It’s a design brief.

The next wave of winners won’t be those who wait for a rebound in old spending habits—
But those who ride the microjoy wave with precision, playfulness, and presence.

 

Tara Mulia

Admin heyokha

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In 2011, Marc Andreessen, co-founder of Silicon Valley VC firm Andreessen Horowitz, declared: “Software is eating the world.” And for the next decade, it did — with the appetite of a teenager left home alone with a freezer full of pizza pockets. SaaS replaced shelves. Apps replaced advisors. CRM dashboards became the new temples of capitalism.

But now, software’s no longer the one doing the eating.

Because in 2017, Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia — the man whose chips power much of today’s AI revolution — flipped the script. During an interview with MIT Technology Review, he said:

“Software is eating the world, but AI is going to eat software.”

Back then, it sounded like fluff. Today, it sounds prophetic.

So, What Does “AI Eats Software” Actually Mean?

Imagine a world where you don’t click through 12 drop-down menus to run a report, or learn how to use a CRM just to check who missed a follow-up. That’s the old model of software: structured, manual, built for interfaces designed by engineers for other engineers.

Now imagine you just say:

“Show me all clients who haven’t responded in 30 days but opened our latest email.”

And something just… does it. That’s the new paradigm.

AI eats software by bypassing the software interface entirely. It doesn’t click where you would click — it skips the UI altogether. The new interface is natural language, gesture, or intent — what we already use to interact with people.

Why learn =VLOOKUP() when you can ask, “What’s our top-selling product by region in Q1?”
Why wrestle with Salesforce dashboards when you can say, “Remind me who I pitched to last week who liked the blockchain bit”?

You’re no longer operating software. You’re collaborating with cognition.

Microsoft Excel’s first commercial in 1990. Same cells. Same one guy doing all the work

The Software We Might Not Need Anymore

Let’s use a grounded example: Salesforce.

• It’s expensive.
• It’s clunky.
• It’s useful… but mostly because it’s the only thing connecting your emails, contacts, and pipeline.

But what is Salesforce, really? A glorified database — designed to help you remember things and show them nicely.

If an AI can access the same backend and answer your questions directly, what exactly are you paying for? The UI? The clickability? The consulting hours?

Once the value shifts from how you find the data to how well it understands your request, UI-heavy software becomes an endangered species.

A New Definition of Work: Intent → Fulfillment

In today’s workflow, there’s a lot of “middle”:

• Intent: I want to know something.
• Learning the interface: Where do I click? What formula do I use?
• Manual translation: Convert your question into clicks and keystrokes.
• Fulfillment: Finally, the software spits out something (hopefully relevant).

AI collapses this.

With natural language, intent goes straight to fulfillment.

No need to learn how to use a tool that just does what you say.

No more switching between tabs to manually bridge your thoughts from one interface to another.

At some point, all that back-and-forth just wears you down.

This is why software itself is starting to look like a delay, not a productivity boost.

Software was the scaffolding. AI is the elevator.

Adobe’s Awakening: When Models Matter More Than Menus

Take Adobe — a company that’s been a household name for decades. When generative AI boomed, Adobe tried to keep up by launching its own model, Firefly.

Unfortunately, Firefly flopped.

Its performance lagged behind OpenAI and Midjourney, and the creative community noticed. Adobe eventually had to open its platform and integrate outside models.

Lesson learned: having software is not enough. If your AI underperforms, your UI becomes irrelevant. Even giants must kneel to models that work.

The Hardware Renaissance: AI Builds as It Destroys

Here’s the plot twist.

While AI eats software, it simultaneously builds up something else: hardware.

To run massive AI models in real time, we need:

• Data centers
• Specialized chips
• Smart edge devices like wearables, cameras, and autonomous robots

Google’s unveiling of Android XR where their newest headsets and glasses integrates Google Gemini

Huawei also in the smart wearables space with their latest Smart Glasses 2 with AI-powered features and live interpretation feature through voice commands

 

In other words: AI is software reincarnated in physical form. It’s a brain that now needs a body.

This is why Nvidia is booming. Why Huawei is building smart glasses. Why robotics and drones are staging a comeback.

We’re not entering a post-software era. We’re entering a pre-hardware renaissance — built by AI.

Now, how does this all play out in Indonesia? In this race, we may not be building the chips just yet— but we can align with those who do.

That means partnering with the infrastructure players. Becoming part of the AI supply chain, even if we’re not hosting the mainframe ourselves. (Think: nickel for batteries, fiber for connectivity, and sovereign data policies that attract responsible AI builders.)

For Investors: Who’s Toast, Who’s Turbocharged?

Let’s get practical.

If AI eats software, then investors need to rethink what they’re betting on. Here’s how:

• Caution on Software-First Companies
  If their core moat is “we make nice dashboards,” that’s not defensible anymore. Especially if AI models can give the same value — with no interface at all.
• Look for Hardware-Adjacents
  Compute demand is exploding. From cooling companies to chip suppliers to industrial automation — hardware is hot again.
• Back AI-Native Companies
  The ones that are born in this AI-first architecture. Not bolted-on. These firms start with the question: “What can we do if the interface is human language?”

Think less SaaS. Think more intent orchestration layers.

Final Thought: What If AI Isn’t Just the End of Software — But the Start of Simplicity?

Maybe “AI eats software” sounds scary because we’ve grown up thinking software was the prize. That learning Excel made us employable. That CRM mastery meant you were “good at your job.”

But what if we’ve just been training ourselves to speak “machine”?
And now, finally, the machines speak us?

It’s not the end of software.
It’s the end of unnecessary complexity.

And that means the future of productivity may not be about working harder or coding faster — but about speaking clearly, and letting intelligence do the rest.

 

Tara Mulia and Simon Chan

Admin heyokha

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Morning, Jakarta’s prospector

We are all a prospector, in one way or another

In the old days, prospectors panned rivers for gold; today, they ride motorbikes through Jakarta’s traffic, chasing fortunes of a different kind. From freelancers to sales reps, these urban adventurers trade pickaxes for smartphones, navigating the daily chaos with grit, caffeine, and a dream.

History is full of fortune chasers—rugged gold miners, daring merchants, and scrappy dreamers turning rags to riches. As Adam Smith famously noted, it’s not the butcher’s kindness that brings you meat, but his self-interest. The world runs on hustle, not handouts.

The thrill of prospectors brings back my memory about the movie “Gold”.

Gold (2016) is a gritty adventure-drama inspired by true events, starring Matthew McConaughey as Kenny Wells, a desperate prospector who teams up with a geologist to find gold deep in the jungles of Indonesia. Their discovery triggers a whirlwind of fame, fortune, and Wall Street frenzy—until things unravel in a web of greed, illusion, and betrayal. The film captures the highs and lows of chasing wealth, reminding us how thin the line is between striking it rich and losing everything.

 

The recent gold price action to all-time highs has given birth to new wave of gold prospectors. In Jakarta and reportedly many other cities in Asia, it is a common scene to see people lining up to buy gold bars. An asset class once considered for the elderly is now once again a hot trend.

We are all gold prospectors – Indonesians queued since dawn to buy gold at its peak early April

While recent gold price action has been exhilarating, it evokes mixed feelings for many. Some may fall back on the notion that whatever becomes “mainstream on Main Street” often signals a contrarian opportunity instead. But the lingering question remains: will this time be different?

Testing the waters

I had the privilege of speaking at a seminar for the Hungrystock community in Jakarta on May 1st, 2025.

The audience was filled with fundamental investing enthusiasts. Inspired by Warren Buffett, these individuals spend hours poring over research before making their stock purchases. They also have a fondness for buying stocks on a bargain — the kind that never flinches in the face of a bear market!

The topic of the seminar? Market and Macro Outlook. The room buzzed with curiosity, skepticism, and a shared hunger for what lies beneath the surface of this resource-rich nation, but one topic kept bouncing around the room as I made my way to the stage: “Is gold price going to get any higher?”.

Five minutes into a slide deck, I decided to test the room full of around 150 savvy retail investors with a quick show of hands survey:

“Who owns gold ?”  About 8 people raised their hand (equal to 5% of the audience).

I suppose most of the married people forget what their wedding rings are made of.

“Who owns gold equities?” About four people raised their hand (equal to 2.6% of the audience).

This seems to indicate that gold, either in physical form or equities to be under owned to begin with. At least confined to that room.

Now this is where it gets interesting.

“Who thinks that the gold price is too high and will decline?” About 20 people raised their hand (equal to 13% of the audience).

“Who thinks that the gold price will continue to go up?” About roughly 70 people raised their hand (equivalent to 46% of the audience).

Apparently, most investors are missing the action in gold

The bottom line from this anecdotal exercise indicates that while most people are bullish on the gold price, it remains an under owned asset.

This issue is not just the retail investors. Sprott’s latest Q1-2025 commentary shows Western financial advisers sitting at their lowest gold allocation since 2019, while holdings in gold-backed ETFs remain almost 20 % below the 2020 peak.

Sources: Sprott

Central banks have not missed the game however and are the hoarding metal. Feast your eyes on the century-and-a-half roller-coaster below:

Exhibit A – “Gold’s Revenge Tour.” Gold’s share of global reserves (blue) dominated the pre-WWII era, went on a decades-long hiatus, and is now sneaking back on stage just as the dollar’s share (red) loses a few decibels.

And guess who’s buying backstage passes? Asian central banks specifically—they’ve been the biggest net buyers of bullion since the current dollar bull run kicked off in 2014.

Sources: Gainesville Coins, IMF

The Philosopher’s Nugget

Henry David Thoreau, famous American naturalist and philosopher, once said “There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil to one who is striking at the root”. Investors, likewise, lunge at the branch called “price momentum” and ignore the root called “ownership base.” When ownership is thin, supply of new sellers is thinner still.

Over the last 10 years, freshly mined gold supply has been stagnating.

Source: World Gold Council

Global exploration budgets for new deposits actually fell 3 % last year—even with record gold prices—and it now takes an average of 15 years to shepherd a discovery from first soil sample to first pour.

Source: S&P Global

At the same time over 99 % of existing gold mines are profitable at today’s prices, with industry margins hovering near all-time highs.

Source: Metals Focus Gold Mine Cost Service

Top 10 things people ask Santa for: A time machine

After delivering the market and macro outlook presentation, I went down the stage and spoke with a few of the audience members. It seemed my impromptu survey left a mark on them as some lamented on not buying the bullion at US $1,000—or US $2,000 and wished they could go back in time to urge their past selves.

But here’s the thing – a time machine might not be needed after all – gold equities still trade at single-digit cash-flow multiples while bullion toys with record highs. As Sprott’s John Hathaway puts it, miners offer “significant torque (operational leverage) potential” versus the metal itself.

AISC margins are far higher than they were in 2018 making the HUI Index undervalued relative to gold price

Source: StockCharts

Parting Shot

As people started to file out of the hall, a gentleman approached me:

“Gold still feels risky. Don’t you think it’s overbought?” he paused then added, “But maybe the bigger risk is not owning any.”

That comment rings true now more than ever.
Fiat earned our trust once—backed by discipline, restraint, and real limits.
But over time, that trust has been stretched by endless debt and printing presses.
Gold, on the other hand, doesn’t ask for trust.
It doesn’t promise. It doesn’t default. It just is.
So maybe the real question isn’t whether gold is overbought—
but whether the paper we measure it in still deserves our trust.

 

Nicholas and Tara Mulia

 

Admin heyokha

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When the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dipped below the psychologically sacred 100 mark, the reaction across markets was immediate and biblical.

Bond yields erupted like a volcano no one had prepared an evacuation plan for.
Volatility rose sharply — not quite “end of the world” levels, but just enough to make traders double their coffee intake and triple-check their hedges.
Gold? Gold didn’t just rise — it strapped on a superhero cape, crashed through a few ceilings, and started flexing in slow motion.

It was, by all appearances, chaos.

And yet, there I sat—having gone through my second matcha in hand—deeply preoccupied with trying to figure out why my toast had burned on only one side.

Because here’s the thing: this wasn’t a heart attack. It was more like a long-overdue jog.

The dollar, after decades of indulgence, is simply trying to slim down. And trimming trade deficits, like trimming body fat, follows the same rule:

• Consume less than you expend

In trade-speak, that means importing less (or exporting more).

• Shed excess weight naturally

A modestly weaker dollar makes U.S. goods cheaper abroad

• Rebalance energy

Domestic factories and payrolls pick up the workload that overseas suppliers had been shouldering.

In that light, a weaker dollar isn’t a breakdown—it’s the feedback loop of a country attempting a strategic reset.

And behind that adjustment lies a bigger story: the U.S., under a Trump 2.0 presidency, is re-evaluating decades of trade dogma—not out of theory, but necessity.

Trump 1.0: Big Talk, Smaller Follow-Through

When Donald Trump took office in 2017, he promised to tear up “unfair trade deals” faster than a kid opens birthday presents.

NAFTA got rebranded as USMCA. Tariffs were slapped on China. Economists panicked.

But in practice?

• The U.S. trade deficit actually grew, from $481 billion in 2016 to $679 billion in 2020.
• Manufacturing jobs saw a brief lift before the pandemic pulled the rug out.
• The Phase One deal with China delivered photo ops but little systemic change.

Trump 1.0 was loud—but left the deeper structural incentives for offshoring intact.
Meanwhile, global rivals like China played a very different game.

The Richman Perspective: Free Trade’s Fine Print

Enter Balanced Trade (2014), by Jesse, Howard, and Raymond Richman.
We don’t quote it because it’s gospel—but because it captures how the U.S. might be viewing its predicament.

The Richmans argued that textbook free trade assumes everyone plays fair. But when countries embrace mercantilism, the game breaks.

Their key points:

• The U.S. hasn’t posted a goods & services surplus since 1976.
• Foreign reserves ballooned from $1.4 trillion (1995) to over $10 trillion (2013).
• America’s net international investment position flipped from +13% (1980) to –35% (2012).

And what’s more concerning: countries like China and Japan don’t spend those dollars on U.S. goods—they buy U.S. debt. As of early 2025, China holds $784.3 billion in Treasuries; Japan, $1.13 trillion. According to the Richmans, that’s not trade – that’s America exporting IOUs.

The Richmans suggest a “scaled tariff”—a self-adjusting levy pegged to bilateral deficits. Not protectionism per se, just a nudge to restore balance.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Service

But again, this is a lens, not the truth. And maybe that’s the deeper takeaway as written by this book:
The U.S. isn’t declaring trade broken—it’s trying to restore competitiveness in a world where others stopped playing by the book long ago.

Trump 2.0: Trade Policy With a Bit More Teeth

Fast-forward to today: Trump 2.0 is leaning hard into so-called “reciprocity”.
Not just at rallies, but across a Washington that’s increasingly skeptical of free-market purity.

What’s on the table:

• Targeted tariffs based on bilateral trade deficits.
• Challenges to WTO rules that limit U.S. retaliation.
• Industrial policy tied to national security, encouraging onshoring of critical supply chains.

Of course, nothing is free.
A Brookings Institution report estimated that the 2018–2019 tariffs cost American consumers $57 billion a year. But for many voters—and policymakers—some level of sacrifice now feels worth it.

Globalization might have been a perfectly beautiful idea, but according to the Richmans, it is far from perfect in reality.

Global Reverberations: Some Win, Some Whimper

If the U.S. doubles down on “balanced trade,” ripple effects will follow.

Potential Winners:

• Emerging markets: India, Vietnam, Mexico—likely alternatives to China in the new supply chain map.
• Commodities: Reshoring means higher demand for industrial metals, energy, and logistics.
• Selective U.S. sectors: Tech, pharma, and defense-related manufacturing.

Likely Losers:

• Export-reliant economies like Germany, South Korea, and Japan.
• Global investors navigating rising FX and bond volatility.

The IMF warns: if tariffs become widespread, global GDP could shrink by 0.5%.
Not world-ending, but not nothing either.

Food for Thought: Was Free Trade Ever Really Free?

The Trump 2.0 shift isn’t just about tariffs—it’s a symptom of deeper anxieties:

• If globalization weakens national resilience, is it still worth it?
• Can you really have fair trade, and what does fair trade rhetorically even really mean?
• Is consumption-driven growth sustainable when you’ve outsourced everything?

The Richmans’ thesis? Free trade without balance is like a gym membership you never use: looks virtuous, accomplishes nothing, eventually hurts your back.

But maybe it’s not even about trade. Maybe this is more of a consistent reaction from a dominant power threatened by a rising power.

Whether led by Trump or simply the prevailing mood in Washington, the world is clearly shifting toward a more fractured, competitive, less globalized future.

The rules are changing.
Act II has begun.

Fasten your seatbelt—and maybe stash a few gold coins, just in case.

 

Simon Chan and Tara Mulia

Admin heyokha

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